Ukraine’s path to the European Union is back at the top of the agenda in Brussels and across European capitals, as policymakers and major international media return their attention to a process that, at times, has looked like it was running on slow burn.
The renewed momentum comes after a series of signals from key EU figures: German Chancellor Friedrich Merz floating the idea of a form of “associate membership” for Ukraine, and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen suggesting that the opening of the first negotiating clusters could be put before EU leaders at the summit on 18–19 June.
More and more Western media now argue that Ukraine’s bid for EU membership is no longer just a technocratic exercise in ticking off accession benchmarks. The Financial Times, for example, has pointed to the need to rethink the EU’s enlargement framework itself, given the sheer scale of Ukraine’s application and its geopolitical weight for Europe’s future. EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos has gone further, calling for accession rules to be adapted to new realities, and stressing that Ukraine’s integration has become a strategic question for the Union as a whole.
At the same time, the debate over the “associate membership” model floated by Merz shows the EU is still trying to strike a balance between political backing for Ukraine and its own readiness for full-scale enlargement. Some European politicians see the idea as a way to speed up Kyiv’s integration and provide at least some additional security guarantees in the near term. Others warn that interim formats risk becoming a long-term “waiting room” for candidate countries, delaying full membership rather than bringing it closer.
Even so, the tone in Brussels has become noticeably more upbeat in recent months. Ursula von der Leyen has repeatedly said Ukraine is pushing ahead with the necessary reforms even amid a full-scale war, and that the European Commission supports continued progress in the accession talks.
In a comment to The Ukrainian Week, Liubov Akulenko, executive director of the Ukrainian Centre for European Policy, said Merz’s letter was aimed precisely at restarting momentum in the negotiation process with Ukraine after the Hungarian elections. She added that the opening of the first negotiating cluster is expected to be on the agenda at the June summit, although there are indications this was not originally planned before the German chancellor’s intervention. “The Germans do want to treat Ukraine differently from other candidate countries, because the circumstances are different. In his letter, Merz is pushing for the opening of all six negotiating clusters — which, from our perspective, would be very positive. It would allow us to take advantage of the current political will among the most influential member states to move things forward,” she says.
At the same time, Akulenko says that is unlikely to happen. Opening all six clusters at once, she argues, would probably be seen by other EU capitals as Ukraine moving too fast through the process. France, in particular, remains a sticking point. Emmanuel Macron, she says, is expected to keep a cautious line on enlargement until the French elections, with EU expansion still a sensitive domestic political issue.
“These steps are not just symbolic because Germany is trying to show leadership in the negotiation process. With this letter, it has effectively kicked off a broader discussion about how to make Ukraine’s accession to the EU actually happen, while also stating publicly that Ukraine’s membership is the goal. That is a strong signal of support. But Ukraine’s progress will still depend on whether Germany can convince other member states not to block the opening of all negotiating clusters,” Liubov Akulenko told The Ukrainian Week.
On timing, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha is confident that accession negotiations should be opened by the end of the first half of 2026 — essentially within weeks. The question is how realistic that actually is.
“Ukraine should ask for as much as possible in the negotiations, and that is completely normal. For us, opening all the clusters in June would give a political push across the whole negotiation process and mean we’re no longer dependent on unanimous backing from all 27 EU member states on this issue. In all likelihood, there won’t be any problems with opening the first cluster,” says Liubov Akulenko, executive director of the Ukrainian Centre for European Policy. Still, she points out that the real test begins once a cluster is opened, when the clock starts ticking on delivering a set of sensitive political and legal reforms — and those commitments stop being theoretical.
German Ambassador to Ukraine Heiko Thoms, along with Klaus Welle, chair of the academic council at the Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies, have both stressed that Ukraine will need to show steady progress on reforms. That, Akulenko notes, is where pressure could build, given the current dynamics in parliament and the state’s capacity to actually push through EU-related reforms. “This is where we may run into difficulties, given how parliament is working and the capacity of the state apparatus to carry out European integration reforms,” she told The Ukrainian Week.
The June EU summit is shaping up as an important moment for Kyiv, one that may show whether the EU is finally ready to move beyond broad statements of support for Ukraine and start turning them into real progress in the accession process — or whether a cautious, incremental approach will continue to define how things move forward.
“What would be the most important signal from this upcoming EU summit? Of course, it would be the opening of all six negotiating clusters. In my view, a key political signal already came last Friday from Germany’s Ambassador to Kyiv, Heiko Thoms, when he said Germany supports Ukraine’s full EU membership. If that position is coming from one of the Union’s leading member states, then we have a real chance of avoiding the waiting bench where the Western Balkans were stuck for so long,” Liubov Akulenko told The Ukrainian Week.
