In an interview with The Ukrainian Week, Romanian sociologist Gelu Duminică discussed the ongoing presidential elections in Romania, the factors behind the success of far-right party leader George Simion, the resignation of Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu, and how Romanian-Ukrainian relations could transform after the elections.
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— George Simion, leader of the far-right Alliance for the Union of Romanians, and Bucharest’s liberal mayor Nicușor Dan have advanced to the second round of Romania’s presidential election. With Simion leading by roughly 20 percentage points, does Dan have any chance of catching up?
— The second round will be a tough fight. If twelve million people turn out to vote, instead of the ten million in the first round, I don’t think Nicușor Dan will be able to win. That said, I remain optimistic because voter participation wasn’t particularly high: turnout was just over 50%. This was largely due to the rather weak political options presented ahead of the vote. However, I expect more people to show up in the second round, especially since Nicușor Dan is relatively moderate compared to George Simion. So, the battle is far from over. Realistically speaking, it will be a fierce contest, and it wouldn’t be a huge surprise if Simion ends up winning after all.
— According to political analysts, a Simion victory could isolate Romania, destroy private investment, and destabilise NATO’s eastern flank. Moreover, Simion himself has already stated that, if elected, he would appoint the pro-Russian Călin Georgescu as prime minister — a politician banned from running for office due to criminal charges and ties to a fascist organisation. What is the secret to Simion’s success? Why are Romanians voting for him?
— Simion’s success stems from the low effectiveness of the political class. Over the past ten years, we haven’t had any genuinely capable political speakers. Our former president, Klaus Iohannis, governed in a chaotic fashion: initially, he opposed the Social Democratic Party, then brought them into government. Corruption is widespread, the pandemic was poorly managed, and Russia has been very active in Romania — all of this, combined with the political climate we’ve experienced, creates the impression that populists might deliver prosperity.
So, most of Simion’s voters are essentially hired to keep supporting the same people. Since the liberals and Social Democrats have been running the government in recent years, there’s currently no real choice, no alternative. The Save Romania Union, although pro-democratic, has been plagued by internal conflicts.
As a result, all the fears and frustrations that have built up among Romanians — especially the most vulnerable — have been harnessed by the populists, as has happened elsewhere. In short: disillusionment, the dismal performance of the traditional parties, Russia, the United States over the past year, and the wave of populist movements have brought us to this point.
— Is a scenario of Romania’s political isolation possible in this context?
— As for Romania’s potential isolation, that’s not really a possibility — at least not yet. It’s a question that will likely come up if Simion wins the election. Note that two of our neighbouring countries — Ukraine and Moldova — have already declared him persona non grata, as it’s been proven that he collaborates with Russia. That would be a massive shock to our society and would take us back to the 1940s, before the Second World War. It would lead to a situation much like that one — with deep divisions within society, a tense political climate, active Russian movements, and so on.
In other words, Russia would gain a significant ally in the form of the Romanian president. But at the same time, we are now placing our hopes in parliament. Although the Social Democrats are playing both sides — with the pro-Europeans and the sovereigntists — it’s highly likely that, if Simion wins, the Social Democratic Party will team up with the Alliance for the Union of Romanians to form a new government.
— After the first round of the presidential election, Romanian Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu announced his resignation and the withdrawal of the Social Democratic Party from the ruling coalition. Back in November 2024, he had already declared his resignation as party leader but later reversed it. How do you assess Ciolacu’s decision, and why was the coalition unable to avoid turbulence?
— This is also one of the reasons why Marcel Ciolacu is stepping down now. He saw the results of the first round, and the resignation gives the Social Democratic Party the flexibility to align with either side after the second round. So, if Nicușor Dan wins, the party can join the pro-European camp — the liberals and the Save Romania Union. But if the sovereigntists win, it can align with the Alliance for the Union of Romanians.
So today, in my view, this is simply a political manoeuvre to secure his party’s position. The party is seen as one of the most corrupt in Romania, and those who run it should be held accountable for their misuse of public funds.
— Many statements, including those made by Simion, concern Ukraine: the supply of weapons, the transit of Ukrainian agricultural products through Romanian territory, and so on. How might Romanian-Ukrainian relations change after the election?
— Ukraine will face significant challenges if Simion becomes Romania’s president in two weeks. This is quite obvious, as the president, according to the constitution, chairs the National Security Council and holds a leading role in the Romanian military. At the same time, European partners are unlikely to welcome Simion. So, Ukraine will be in a difficult position. Furthermore, Simion has stated in his political platform and official party programmes that he will stop accepting Ukrainian refugees and will keep them at the borders. And that’s troubling.
Our democratic society, civil organisations, and political parties are responding to this. But most likely, there will be a major shift in Romania’s support for Ukraine. Clearly, Russia could gain an unexpected ally in Eastern Europe right on Ukraine’s border. And that will help neither Ukraine nor Europe.
