Anna Lachykhina, partner at the government relations agency Good Politics and former adviser in the Canadian Parliament, spoke to The Ukrainian Week to share her insights on the results of Canada’s snap elections and what we can expect from the Liberal Party under Mark Carney’s leadership.
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— Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney made his first statement following his Liberal Party’s victory in the parliamentary elections. This marks a significant moment: it’s the first time in nearly a decade that the Liberals have had a new leader. So, what can we expect from his policies, and from the Liberals more generally?
— When Mark Carney was elected leader of the party, his platform and messaging were shaped by his background as an experienced economist. He understands how systems, large corporations, and financial markets work. After stepping in as prime minister following Trudeau’s resignation, Carney took immediate action, reducing the number of cabinet members and cutting public sector spending. He also promised that his first priority would be to reduce taxes for Canadians, should he win.
Why the emphasis on economic issues? Because this was the main battleground for the Conservatives in their attack on the Liberals, even before Trudeau’s resignation. Public discontent had been growing over rising prices—especially the cost of living and essential goods. There were even reports of middle-class families, who had once been relatively well-off, having to rely on food banks in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. This issue dominated Canadian news from 2022 to 2024 and became a key line of Conservative criticism against the Liberals.
That’s why I believe that with a new Liberal government, Mark Carney—an experienced economist, though new to elected office—will approach his role like a seasoned manager, focused on resolving domestic economic challenges with his expertise in the economy and financial institutions.
It’s also important to note that Canada is currently weighed down by Trump’s tariffs and his statements about potentially annexing the country. As a result, it’s likely that much of the focus will be on strengthening the domestic economy.
— At the start of this year, the Liberals were in crisis, with their ratings at their lowest point since 2015. But in the past three months, those numbers have nearly doubled. What do you think has been the key factor behind this shift? And do you think they’ll be able to sustain this level of support?
— The turning point was Trudeau’s resignation and the subsequent election of Carney as the new leader of the Liberal Party. When this happened in early March, the Liberals were polling at 33%, while the Conservatives were at 39%. But once Carney was chosen as leader, Liberal support began to rise dramatically. That shift had already started when Trudeau announced his resignation in early January, however.
This is precisely why their ratings began to improve. Even Liberal supporters were calling for Trudeau to step down, after nearly a decade in power. And then in December, Deputy Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland resigned. This sent a clear message to both the public and the international community: there were significant internal divisions within the party about its future direction and whether Trudeau should remain at the helm.
As the campaign progressed, the Conservatives held steady in terms of support, while the Liberals surged to 43%. Can they maintain such high ratings? Well, it’s important to keep in mind that this is an election period, and emotions are running high. A new leader often brings a wave of optimism and expectations for change. But after the election cycle, once the first decisions are made and the routine of governing sets in, those ratings are likely to fluctuate based on whether the policies are popular or not—and that’s entirely natural. That said, we saw in both the 2021 election and this year’s contest that the Liberals can pull ahead even from a weaker position. This speaks to the broader sentiment of Canadians, who generally lean centre-left.
– Most likely, the Liberals will need support from other political forces to form a government. What options do they have?
– Right now, the Liberals are projected to win 168 seats in Parliament, but they need 172 to form a majority. So, they’ll have to strike a coalition with someone. Their previous government wasn’t a majority either—in the past four years, the Liberals have worked in partnership with the New Democratic Party (NDP) to pass key legislation. The NDP, a left-wing party, helped the Liberals push through policies that were heavily focused on social issues: universal health insurance, free access to dental care, and increased support for families with young children.
However, this approach to public spending started to create tension. Taxes were high, social spending was high, and businesses struggled to expand. The government shaped the economy in a way that even high earners didn’t feel comfortable, as a large chunk of their income went to the state.
Mark Carney is likely to take a slightly different approach. He plans to cut taxes and reduce social spending. However, given the Liberal Party’s ideological stance, it’s most probable that they’ll need to team up once again with the New Democratic Party (NDP). The alternative coalition partner would be the Bloc Québécois—a Franco-centric party with most of its support concentrated in the French-speaking province of Quebec. The Bloc has repeatedly declared its intention to separate from Canada and holds strong separatist views.
Forming a coalition with the Bloc Québécois could present far more challenging and uncomfortable political negotiations for the Liberals than striking a deal with the NDP, whose demands are largely focused on social spending. If the NDP continues to push for increased funding—say, for seniors, universal insurance, or dental care (which is notoriously expensive in Canada and across North America)—it would likely be easier for the Liberals to agree to a single such request than to deal with the sovereignty issues that would likely arise from partnering with the Bloc. Especially since the Liberals don’t need many more votes to reach a majority.
– One of the first issues Carney is addressing is Canada’s relationship with the United States. Is it possible for Canada to step out of the US’s shadow, both economically and in terms of defence?
– For Mark Carney, this is a cornerstone of his campaign. Over the past decade, the US and Canadian economies have become so intertwined that it’s fair to say there was almost a duty-free regime, with free movement of people and goods. Any tariffs that existed were minimal at best.
On top of that, Canada and the US shared a deeply integrated security and defence framework. The US covered a significant portion of Canada’s defence needs, and the two countries worked together to monitor security in the Arctic, among other areas. Now, with Trump’s statements being taken seriously and causing considerable concern, Carney views direct dialogue with him as necessary. However, strengthening relations with the US at this stage seems unlikely.
Carney’s primary task now is to forge stronger relationships with other countries. A particularly telling move, especially in the context of US relations, was his decision to make Europe the destination for his first visit as Prime Minister. In his view, France and the United Kingdom are Canada’s most dependable partners. As such, he believes Canada’s market, political alignments, and security ties should be realigned towards Europe — and even Asia.
But can Canada truly step out of the US’s shadow? For its own survival, it must. With Trump’s rhetoric and actions, Canada can no longer rely on that partnership in the way it once did. It simply cannot afford to become a hostage to the whims of any new US administration. This is why, as a strong and sovereign state, Canada will need to strengthen its relationships with other continents, diversifying its alliances to safeguard its future.
— Will Canada’s support for Ukraine change after this election?
— I believe the level of support will remain unchanged. Canada has been instrumental in helping us transport aid and train our military personnel, and that will continue. The country has also provided significant financial resources, but we shouldn’t expect an increase in financial support, as Canada’s economy is smaller than that of the United States.
Politically, the support will remain stable. Canada has a large Ukrainian diaspora, so there’s a strong Ukrainian presence among the electorate. And because democracy functions there, voters will continue to press their newly elected MPs to support Ukraine, as they’ve done in the past. The pressure from the diaspora ensures that this support will endure.
When the United States struggled to make final decisions on providing F-16s or other forms of aid, Canada stepped up as a voice on the international stage, working to persuade NATO, the G7, and the G20. Now, with Canada holding the G7 presidency, Ukraine can count on this issue staying firmly on the agenda. We have advocates like Canada who can help amplify our voice in international discussions.
