In recent months, there have been increasing reports of events that appear to be acts of sabotage carried out by Russian agents and mercenaries in Poland and the Baltic countries. In December 2023, 14 people were convicted in Poland for operating within a Russian espionage network. The recent high-profile fires in Poland have raised suspicions about the escalation of Russia’s subversive activities in Poland and the Baltic countries.
During a broadcast on TVN24 on May 20, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk revealed that nine individuals, acting on the instructions of Russian special services, had been apprehended by Poland’s intelligence agents for carrying out acts of sabotage nationwide. Tusk emphasised the severity of the situation, highlighting its implications not only for Poland but also for its Baltic partners — Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, and even Sweden. In the interview, Tusk disclosed that the detainees included citizens from Ukraine, Belarus, and Poland, stressing that they were paid operatives with criminal backgrounds. He illustrated the group’s sabotage activities with an example involving an attempted arson at a paint and varnish factory in Wrocław. Furthermore, Tusk mentioned ongoing investigations into the possible links between the suspects involved in the arson of an IKEA store warehouse in Vilnius and the fires in Poland.
The following day, May 21, in a press conference held after a government meeting, Donald Tusk revealed that three additional individuals linked to attempted sabotage activities in Poland had been detained by special services. He urged against speculation regarding the origins of suspicious events, particularly cautioning against attributing them to foreign services such as Russia and Belarus. However, he hinted at their possible involvement in a notable incident, stating, “We are exploring multiple scenarios. It’s highly probable that Russian services are linked to the significant fire on Marywilska Street.”
The fire that broke out at the shopping centre “Marywilska 44” in Warsaw on May 12 ignited numerous speculations and arguably became the most significant fire in Poland in recent memory. Local press coverage framed it as a Polish-Vietnamese tragedy, highlighting the diverse community impacted by the blaze. In addition to Polish individuals, who either owned or operated shops within the sprawling complex covering an area equivalent to ten football fields, there were also Vietnamese citizens or individuals of Vietnamese descent. Many of these individuals had initially started their careers in local markets thirty years prior, only to later find themselves gathered under the roof of the shopping centre on Marivilska Street.
“The magnitude of the fire, its rapid spread, and the inability to contain it have sparked a flurry of conspiracy theories. The most prevalent among them suggests that the pavilion’s owner — Mirbud Company — may have preferred to develop a residential complex on the site. However, the land where the structure stood is owned by the city, with Mirbud holding a lease,” reports the Polish publication Polityka. Retail space owners reflecting on the fire are puzzled by the challenges encountered in its suppression. “A few years back, when a catering establishment caught fire, the damage was contained to the premises and a small portion of the roof. Yet this time, firefighters arrived just 11 minutes after the alarm, and there was little left to salvage,” shared Anna, who, along with her husband, operated four clothing kiosks in the vicinity.
Within just three days of the devastating fire at the Warsaw shopping centre, news broke of a significant fire at the municipal bus depot in Bytom. According to Polish media, the blaze engulfed 10 new buses owned by a private transportation company servicing the city, while an additional seven buses suffered damage. Preliminary investigations by a fire expert suggest that deliberate arson was the probable cause of the fire, resulting in several million zlotys in losses for the city.
In December 2023, in Lublin — a Polish city near the border with Ukraine — verdicts were handed down to 14 foreigners convicted of spying for Russia. According to reports from the Polish publication Rzeczpospolita, which extensively covered this network, it was uncovered by the Internal Security Agency and the Department for Combating Organised Crime of the National Prosecutor’s Office in Lublin at the beginning of 2023. Initially, nine individuals were apprehended, with more joining the group later on. The group’s core comprised Ukrainians, along with two active students from Belarus and one Russian — a hockey player from a Silesian team. Acting on the orders of Russian services, members of the espionage network tracked trains carrying aid to Ukraine and devised plans to sabotage them. Utilising portable cameras, the criminals conducted surveillance on the international airport in Jasionka, the military port in Gdynia, the railway station in Ryashev, crossings near the border with Ukraine, and crucial railway routes used for transporting weapons and humanitarian aid to Ukraine, as detailed by the Polish publication.
In his report to the Polish Parliament on the state of national security on May 22, Minister of Defence Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz stressed the importance of addressing security challenges facing the country.
“The threat to Poland stems from the actions of the Russian Federation, including those of its agents, which have extended not only into Poland but also across Europe. Similarly, the actions of Belarus pose a threat. Recently, our intelligence services, police, and armed forces have been engaged in daily efforts to counter acts of sabotage, subversion, and destabilisation aimed at the Polish state and its communities,” highlighted Kosiniak-Kamysz in his address.
Part of the speech was dedicated to addressing the threats emanating from the Polish-Belarusian border. “In recent times, we have witnessed a significant surge in attempts to cross the Polish-Belarusian border. It’s no longer merely about profiting from smuggling people across the border; it has now taken on a highly organised, hostile character. Most visas permitting citizens of Somalia, Afghanistan, Syria, Yemen, or Iran to enter Belarus are issued by Russia. These groups of individuals are expanding, with Belarusian services aiding their passage and, in our assessment, preparing them to breach the Polish-Belarusian border,” highlighted the Minister of Defence in his speech.
Between January 1 and May 19, 2024, there were 14 thousand attempted illegal crossings of the Belarusian-Polish border. “This marks a 46% increase compared to last year,” highlighted Kosiniak-Kamysz. According to data from the Polish border service, as reported by Rzeczpospolita, nearly 5 thousand of these attempted illegal border crossings took place between May 1 and May 21, 2024.
Over the past year, media and experts have been sounding alarms about the escalating hybrid threats posed by Russia in Europe and Western nations. Given the unfolding events in Poland, it appears that countries in Eastern Europe should brace themselves to confront the brunt of heightened Russian subversive activities.
