The Ukrainian Week/Tyzhden, in collaboration with the Foreign Policy Council ‘Ukrainian Prism,’ presents an in-depth overview of Russia’s ongoing aggression against Ukraine and its broader impact on foreign relations, including Russia’s ties to the international community, Europe, the Middle East, Asia, and beyond, through the weekly #aggressoranalysis.
This week’s highlights: Russia’s growing influence in Southeast Asia and sanctions’ impact on its oil market
- Myanmar junta leader’s visit to Russia: implications for Russian influence in Southeast Asia. Over the past week, Moscow has significantly ramped up its efforts to strengthen its presence in Southeast Asia, spurred by the official visit of Myanmar’s military junta leader, Min Aung Hlaing, to Moscow. The junta, which fully supports Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, brought with it a series of high-level meetings, including talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu. The visit resulted in several agreements covering economic and military cooperation. This move was not unexpected. Just last month, a Russian delegation led by Maxim Reshetnikov, Russia’s minister of economic development, visited Myanmar to attend a meeting of the Trade and Economic Cooperation Commission. Though the event seemed routine, it ended with news of Russia’s plans to launch major infrastructure projects in Myanmar, including a port, a coal-fired power plant, and an oil refinery. These ambitious projects are risky for Moscow, as Myanmar remains in the midst of civil war. The signing of these agreements was clearly a political move aimed at securing Russia’s foothold in Myanmar, specifically with the internationally unrecognised junta.
- The infrastructure projects announced at the end of February already highlighted Russia’s growing influence in Myanmar, but the recent visit by representatives of the military junta to Moscow has further solidified this position. After a meeting between Putin and junta leader Min Aung Hlaing, the Russian president declared that Russia would build a new nuclear power plant in Myanmar. To understand the significance of this, it’s essential to consider one key point: Russia is not only constructing nuclear power plants globally, but also using them as a powerful tool of influence. Russia is the only country capable of maintaining these plants and supplying them with fuel, making them a key leverage point in shaping the political landscape of various nations. Alongside these infrastructure projects, the decision to build the nuclear plant grants the Kremlin significant control over the local junta. When combined with the announced military-technical cooperation, which includes direct military support for the junta, it’s clear that Russia is focused on consolidating its influence in Myanmar.
- However, this strategy has a significant flaw. It reflects the Kremlin’s broader approach to dealing with military warlords worldwide—the inherent instability of their rule. The junta is locked in a constant struggle, not only with the ousted civilian government but also with various ethnic armed groups that coordinate joint actions. This means that, over time, the Kremlin risks losing the influence it has carefully cultivated in Myanmar, which is currently focused on the military junta.
- Sanctions on Russia’s oil sector lead to falling revenues. Data from the Russian Finance Ministry suggests that the sanctions imposed by the Biden administration on Russia’s oil sector may be starting to take a toll. In February, payments to the Russian budget from the mineral extraction tax, paid by oil companies, dropped by 23% compared to the same period last year. Industry experts attribute the decline to lower oil production. While Russian authorities have not directly tied this decline to the sanctions, their impact seems highly likely. This is further supported by the fact that Russia’s crude oil exports to India have fallen to their lowest level since January 2023, with a 14.9% drop in February 2025 alone compared to the previous month.
- Overall, the current oil market situation is unfavourable for Russia. For instance, after OPEC+ decided to increase oil production, the price of Russian Urals crude dropped to nearly $55 per barrel. Problems are also mounting within Russia’s “shadow fleet”—a key target of the sanctions. According to Bloomberg, tankers carrying tens of millions of barrels of Russian oil are now “stranded” at sea, as major buyers, including some ports in China and India, refuse to accept the shipments.
