A NATO summit is set to take place in The Hague from 24 to 26 June, with support for Ukraine among the key topics on the agenda. Western media, including Reuters, report that the officials organising the summit are keen to limit discussions about the war and to prevent a meeting between Volodymyr Zelensky and Donald Trump.
“Trump is expected to return from The Hague with a major diplomatic victory, as NATO members respond to his long-standing complaints about inadequate defence spending by agreeing to increase their contributions. Most likely, European countries will raise military spending from 2% to 3.5% of their national GDP. An additional commitment to allocate 1.5% to related costs, such as infrastructure and cyber defence, would bring the total to 5%, exactly as Trump demands,” Reuters points out.
Nikki Ikani, an Assistant Professor of Intelligence and Security at Leiden University in the Netherlands, spoke with The Ukrainian Week about whether we can expect any progress on Ukraine’s NATO membership and support, and shared her views on the key decisions the summit should make.
— NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte has said the summit declaration will clearly outline military aid to Ukraine. How do you think that might change?
— I expect the declaration to be pretty brief and carefully worded, mainly to avoid provoking Donald Trump. Right now, it’s not clear whether Russia will be directly named as a threat or if the statement will simply express support for Ukraine. That’s a noticeable shift compared to previous summits since the full-scale war began.
That said, NATO members have also agreed to provide an extra €20 billion in military aid to Ukraine and are waiting on approval of a new accounting rule that would count these expenses as part of their national defence budgets.
— Do you think we’ll see any progress on Ukraine’s NATO membership at the summit?
— I don’t expect much to happen at the Hague summit. After Trump removed Ukraine’s membership from the agenda and U.S. Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth said that joining NATO isn’t a realistic outcome right now, the chances look pretty slim. While Rutte insists that all 32 Alliance members are still committed to Ukraine’s “irreversible path” to NATO, that commitment is more long-term, with no set timeline, and it’s definitely off the table for any immediate peace talks.
— What do you think are the key decisions NATO needs to make right now to effectively respond to the current threats?
— I think the focus has to be on political unity, not just trying to please Trump. The real strength of the Alliance comes from unity, solidarity, and trust—without those, it weakens. Responding effectively to today’s threats takes more than just spending more money. It requires a genuine commitment from all members to the shared values and principles of collective defence that have always made NATO strong.
