The NATO summit in The Hague came to a close after weeks of growing concern among analysts and Western media. The biggest question hanging over the talks was whether member states could agree, right at the last minute, to raise defence spending to 5% of their GDP. Alongside that, there was considerable uncertainty about if—and how—the alliance would tackle the ongoing war in Ukraine. Yet, the summit’s final communiqué, notably shorter than last year’s, struck a surprisingly optimistic note. NATO members reaffirmed their commitment to collective defence under Article 5 of the Washington Treaty.
In a show of unity against the growing threat Russia poses to Euro-Atlantic security, alliance members pledged to invest 5% of GDP annually in core defence and broader security spending through 2035. That includes up to 1.5% directed each year toward securing critical infrastructure and networks, strengthening civilian resilience, advancing innovation, and reinforcing the defence industrial base. “Our investments will give us the forces, capabilities, resources, infrastructure, readiness, and resilience needed to ensure effective deterrence and defence—across our three core tasks: deterrence and defence, crisis prevention and management, and cooperative security,” the final communiqué states.
Fredrik Wesslau, a senior fellow at the Stockholm Centre for Eastern European Studies (SCEEUS), told The Ukrainian Week that Europe had relied too heavily on the United States for its security for too long—and that Donald Trump had a point when he called on allies to raise their defence spending to five per cent. “This decision will drive a major build-up of European defence capabilities,” Wesslau said.
“The key now is investing wisely—so the money translates into real deterrence. And it has to happen fast, before Russia has time to rearm. Boosting defence spending is how we stop Moscow from putting NATO to the test.”
Allies also reaffirmed their support for Ukraine, stating that its security is integral to their own. As part of that pledge, NATO members agreed to count direct contributions to Ukraine’s military and defence industry toward their national defence budgets. And despite concerns it might be scrapped, the NATO–Ukraine Council did take place, at the level of foreign ministers.
Fredrik Wesslau points out that the vast majority of European NATO members support Ukraine and intend to keep doing so. “They now need to fill the gap left by reduced U.S. support. At this stage, it’s the backing from individual NATO countries—not the alliance as a whole—that counts most. We may see a parallel effort emerge, involving a group of NATO members working directly with Ukraine, alongside fresh commitments for military aid,” he told The Ukrainian Week.
At the summit’s closing press conference, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte highlighted that the Allies are delivering record levels of support to Ukraine, which could peak in the first half of the year. “We’re clearly working toward a peace deal or a lasting ceasefire—and when that happens, we must ensure Ukraine has everything it needs so Putin never tries this again,” Rutte said.
In practice, the summit maintained the status quo on Ukraine’s future NATO membership. As President Volodymyr Zelensky told Sky News recently, NATO membership is “a mutual opportunity and a necessity—NATO needs Ukrainians,” but “for now, it’s not possible.” Given this reality, Wesslau argues Ukraine’s long-term security will depend primarily on its own ability to defend itself and impose costs on Russia.
“European NATO members have to do everything in their power to help Ukraine build up its defence — including investing directly in its defence industry,” Fredrik Wesslau told The Ukrainian Week. “Europeans—and ideally Americans—will need to step up their game, increasing security commitments like reassurance forces and airspace patrols after a ceasefire, if one ever happens. This will make Russia pay a higher price. At the end of the day, NATO membership remains the smartest and cheapest way to stop Russia from launching another attack on Ukraine.”
On top of that, NATO countries committed to breaking down trade barriers in the defence sector between members and deepening partnerships to boost defence industry cooperation — moves that could speed up the delivery of desperately needed weapons.
One unexpected bonus from the summit was the in-person meeting between the Ukrainian and American presidents. After their talks, Trump promised the U.S. would explore sending Ukraine more missiles for its Patriot air defence systems. Zelensky confirmed they’d also discussed buying additional U.S.-made air defence gear. “Ukraine is ready to purchase this equipment and back American arms manufacturers. Europe can play a role as well. We also talked about the possibility of co-producing drones. Together, we can make each other stronger,” the president wrote.
While the signals for Ukraine are promising, the real challenge lies in how quickly NATO members can boost their capabilities. NATO’s official designation of Russia as a long-term security threat offers a hopeful sign that the West is finally waking up to the full extent of the danger.
