The Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defence of Ukraine (GUR) reported that the Kremlin is planning to launch a new hybrid campaign against Ukraine. The main objective of this campaign is to weaken the legitimacy of the Ukrainian president and leadership in the eyes of Ukraine’s allies and partners, countries that have been siding with Russia since the beginning of a full-scale invasion in February 2022, as well as among the Ukrainian citizens.
In mid-December 2023, a meeting was held in Moscow by the Institute of CIS countries, which is administered by the Russian government and is financed by the state. The topic of the meeting was centred around Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine. According to GUR, “Kremlin political experts” discussed the prospects for further military confrontation and concluded that the Ukrainian command “had shifted to a positional defence strategy in order to disrupt the Russian offensive in the winter and spring of 2024”. Russians believe this strategy involves reinforcing defensive lines, enhancing air defence systems, accumulating ammunition, and forming a combat-ready reserve.
GUR reported that current Russian assessments suggest that if this strategy is successful, it may halt Russia’s invasion and further occupation of Ukraine. Therefore, the Kremlin has decided against any ceasefire and considers preserving Ukraine’s access to the Black Sea “unacceptable”. According to GUR, during the Moscow meeting, there were renewed calls to launch a new and powerful information and psychological campaign against Ukraine’s senior military and political leadership.
Later, GUR elaborated that Russians have also been actively devising plans to discredit the mobilisation in Ukraine, promote a massive exodus of people from Ukraine, and instigate regional divisions within the country in order to carry out a “more effective” war against Ukraine in 2024. For this purpose, Moscow devised a number of fake narratives, such as “Ukraine’s South-East is fighting for the interests of the Bandera supporters”, “Galicia would have joined the EU long ago if it weren’t for separatists”, and “In Kyiv, there is no mobilisation – everyone is partying and having a good time”. Similar narratives have already been detected by Ukraine’s Centre for Strategic Communication and Information Security (Spravdi), a government organisation established in March 2021 to combat disinformation. For example, according to Spravdi, Russians have already been sharing “alarming” headlines about “500 thousand Ukrainians being mobilised and sent to the frontline”, a claim debunked by Valeriy Zaluzhny, Ukraine Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief. Yet, Moscow analysts agree that, so far, their goals have not been achieved yet. The Main Intelligence Directorate adds that “one of the key problems encountered by the Moscow terrorist regime is the societal consensus and stability in Ukraine, despite alleged domestic political differences previously anticipated by Russians”.
Additionally, the Main Intelligence Directorate reported that Russian special services have been busy implementing a new information attack aimed at Ukrainians living outside of Ukraine, sending them provocative text messages. Ukrainians in various countries reported receiving texts urging them to help Moscow drive “American Satanists” out of the “originally Russian land”. Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate explains that “these messages have been written in the Lubyanka’s beloved style. They repeat clichés about the need to revive “Kyivan Rus and defend it against enemies”, along with the reminders to “take care of yourself and your loved ones” or “preserve the people’s lives”, a typical Kremlin style of combining propaganda and open threats in one sentence”. At the end of the messages, there are facsimiles of Moscow special services: ‘With love from Russia”, notes GUR.
Ukrainian intelligence adds that Russia’s latest information attack against Ukrainians living abroad is aimed at intimidating, demoralising, and disorganising the people, adding that “the use of such methods indicates a genre crisis of Russian special services, who were given a task to increase psychological pressure on Ukrainians”.
