The Ukrainian Week/Tyzhden shares key January 12 updates regarding the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine.
- Ukraine’s intelligence: there is half a million occupation Russian personnel in Ukraine and Russia is capable of producing 2 million shells a year. The Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence reported that currently, the occupation forces of the Russian Federation in Ukraine number 462,000 military personnel. Additionally, the Russian occupation forces maintained 35,000 personnel of the Russian Rosgvardiya in the temporarily occupied Ukrainian territories. Additionally, Vadym Skibitsky, Deputy Head of Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence, provided data on the quantity of Russian ammunition and the capabilities of the Russian military-industrial complex. Russia can produce 2 million munitions annually with calibers of 122 and 152 mm. In 2023, the Russian Ministry of Defense was able to achieve a plan of 3 million with supplies from Iran and North Korea; without these, there would have been a deficit of 0.5 million shells in the Russian Ministry of Defense. Skibitsky noted that if Russia reached the 2 million shells per year mark, it does not mean that all these shells ended up on the battlefield in Ukraine. However, Kyiv must maintain a balance in response to such a quantity of weaponry. This depends on supplies from partners. The restoration and enhancement of defensive capabilities were discussed within NATO. This need has been discussed since the third meeting in the “Ramstein” format, as reminded by the intelligence representative.
- ISW: low temperature on a frontline may hinder military operations. ISW’s recent update notes that operations along the front might be restricted due to freezing temperatures in Ukraine. However, the ground might freeze in the coming weeks, creating more favourable conditions for mechanized manoeuvre warfare. According to the deputy commander of a Ukrainian brigade in the Kupyansk region, Russian forces use fewer loitering munitions due to the cold weather. On January 11, Ukrainian Southern Operational Command spokesperson Nataliya Humenyuk stated that Russian forces had launched fewer drones in the past two nights, attributing this to the cold weather, which can cause the drones to freeze. On January 10, an officer from a Ukrainian brigade near Bakhmut reported that the temperature dropped to -18 at night, making it difficult for the personnel to remain at observation posts for more than a few hours. In the Bakhmut direction, Russian infantry attacks also reportedly decreased due to the freezing temperatures. The UK Ministry of Defence reported that freezing temperatures may limit manoeuvrability, but the frozen ground will improve “cross-country movement”.
- Kyiv School of Economics: Russia has found a way to bypass sanctions on military technology. In a joint study by the International Working Group of Yermak-MacFaul on Russian sanctions and the KSE Institute, an analytical centre of the Kyiv School of Economics, it was noted that Russia’s capabilities to produce missiles and drones increased in 2023. Ukrainian analysts pointed out that in 2022, Russian missile capabilities were at 50 missiles per month, doubled to 100 by mid-2023, and reached 115 by the end of the year. The authors of the reports also believe that if Russia continues the pace of the war, it will deplete its reserves. The article states that Ukraine’s partners imposed sanctions on many Western components out of the 2800 found in the wreckage of Russian weapons on the battlefield. Despite the export controls that have been put in place, Russia is still able to import large quantities of goods necessary for military production. The supply chains have adapted to these restrictions, and now most of the items in question are reaching Russia through third-party intermediaries, such as China. The fact that large economies such as China are not part of the sanctions coalition, and because of the lack of experience and institutional resources on the part of coalition countries, makes the situation even more challenging. From January to October 2023, the country imported battlefield goods worth $8,77 billion, a decrease of only 10% compared to the period before the sanctions. The total value of items that are considered crucial for Russia’s military industry was even higher, reaching $22,23 billion. Almost half of all the goods that Russia imported in 2023 came from coalition producers. Having analysed the indicators of Russian trade, it became clear that Western companies supplied 48% of such components in the first 10 months of the previous year, while China accounted for 45%. The largest provider of technologies for military goods was the American company Intel, followed by the Chinese company Huawei. Top sellers also included several American companies such as Analog Devices, AMD, Texas Instruments, IBM, and Dell were also included. Most supplies now come from China, Hong Kong, Turkey, and the UAE.
- Key takeaways from the interview of Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence Chief, Kyrylo Budanov, with the French newspaper Le Monde:
- It appears that Russian missile strikes were motivated by Russia’s desire to declare 2023 as their “victorious” year, even though they have not achieved any significant military successes. However, Russian rockets have significant flaws and often miss their targets. In response, we have taken swift action by targeting their military facilities.
- Since the end of summer 2023, Russia has been producing more munitions, but their quality has declined.
- Both sides’ intensive drone use and dense minefields, unseen since World War II, hinder offensive operations. Electronic countermeasures are effective against drones, while specialised equipment is required for mines.
- The Northern Black Sea is currently under the control of Ukraine, which includes its gas platforms. Despite the risks involved, the maritime export routes that are crucial for our economy are still operational. Ukraine’s regular attacks on the enemy’s military fleet and port facilities have forced the Russians to shift their efforts to the south. They are now attempting to establish a naval base in Ochamchire, which is located on the occupied territory of Georgia.
- In 2023, Ukraine successfully conducted landings in Crimea despite initial doubts. This brings hope for Ukrainians living under Russian control for a decade.
- Moscow was perceived to have a strong military but a weak economy. Contrary to expectations, the Russian army appears to be weak. While Russia’s economy may be fragile, the country is not facing starvation, and at its current pace, Russia can endure its war of aggression for a considerable time. Current Western sanctions are insufficient and should have targeted Russia’s key economic sectors: energy, metallurgy, and the financial system.
- There is a need for more ammunition and artillery systems, including outdated ones. Quantity is critical. Those overseas who are ‘tired’ of Ukraine will have to worry about Russians when they come to occupy their own territories. The aggressor state, Russia, is waging war not only against Ukraine but also against NATO, as has been emphasised by their propaganda from the outset.
- Latvia and Estonia announced new military aid to Ukraine. On January 11, Latvia and Estonia announced their commitment to new military aid packages for Ukraine. President Edgars Rinkevics of Latvia revealed a comprehensive aid package encompassing howitzers, 155mm ammunition, anti-tank weapons, rockets, grenades, all-terrain vehicles, helicopters, drones, and various other equipment. Estonian President Alar Karis pledged a military aid package totalling 1,2 billion euros from 2024 to 2027, constituting 0,25% of Estonia’s annual GDP. Strengthening their collaboration, the Ukrainian Ministry of Strategic Industry and the Estonian Defense and Aerospace Industry Association signed a memorandum of understanding focusing on the development and production of drones and electronic warfare systems.
- Financial Times: EU may offer concessions for Hungary in exchange for assistance to Ukraine’s 50 billion euros assistance. Brussels is actively seeking a resolution to the Hungarian blockade following Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s veto of an EU package to Ukraine in December. This coincides with the U.S. Congress’s delay in approving funds for Ukraine. In an effort to persuade Orban to withdraw his veto, the European Commission is willing to offer the Hungarian Prime Minister the option to halt the funding operation halfway through in 2025, according to three officials cited by FT. Under this potential move, the EU would conduct a review of the four-year support package next year, assessing whether Ukraine still requires funds and whether it has fulfilled the EU’s requirements. This would give Orban the opportunity to veto its extension. The Commission is also open to annual reviews of aid and the introduction of an “emergency brake” provision, allowing any country to raise serious concerns about payments to Ukraine for discussion at an EU leaders’ summit. However, this would not grant Hungary additional veto power over funding. Responding to whether this would be sufficient for Orban to lift his veto, a senior Hungarian official said, “Not sure yet, but I would say most likely yes.”
