Italy’s Presidency of the Council of Ministers hosted a public presentation of the Year 2023 Information Policy for Security Report at Palazzo Dante, the Prime Minister’s headquarters. The annual intelligence report was released on February 28th. It was presented by Alfredo Mantovano, Secretary of the Council of Ministers of Italy, alongside Lorenzo Guerini, the President of COPASIR, Elisabetta Belloni, Director-General of DIS, Giovanni Caravelli, Director of AISE, and Mario Parente, Director of AISI.
Based on the findings revealed in the report, Russia emerges as the most aggressive player in hybrid propaganda campaigns launched against Italy and the Western world. These campaigns include espionage, cyber attacks, disinformation, and the exploitation of migration flows to destabilise the region.
Another key player engaging in hybrid warfare is China. According to the report authors, in 2023, Russia and China both conducted numerous disinformation campaigns against Western nations by exploiting loopholes in their political system and abusing democratic principles, such as market openness and media freedom. For example, Italian intelligence suggests that Russia uses its tools to influence the upcoming European parliamentary elections scheduled for early June.
At the moment, Russia seems to be pushier and more assertive in its propaganda and increasingly aggressive hybrid war, especially due to its ongoing invasion of Ukraine, by waging a full range of disinformation campaigns against Italy and other Western states. The conflict between Israel and Hamas in late 2023 further energized Moscow’s hybrid initiatives, promoting manipulative propaganda narratives presented as a “support” of the Palestinian people.
The intelligence report claims that Italy and other Western nations maintain a solid level of resilience overall. Meanwhile, Russia, experiencing ongoing estrangement from the West, is employing hybrid tactics to regain international influence. These tactics encompass already familiar strategies, such as espionage and compromising critical infrastructure, alongside more innovative approaches like the “weaponisation” of the migrant phenomenon. This involves exploiting and manipulating the topic of the refugee flow to the European Union.
Economically, Russian hybrid warfare has been steadily on the rise since the war began, especially within the energy sector. Moscow has notably sought to hinder Italian and European initiatives for energy diversification and the introduction of a price cap on Russian gas. Moreover, Russia has been actively cultivating and reinforcing relationships with countries taking on new roles in the European energy scene. Russia held countless information campaigns driven by propaganda aimed at distorting public understanding of energy price trends, inflation, and the costs of raw materials.
On the cyber front, the war in Ukraine remains a major catalyst for malicious cyber campaigns carried against the West by Russia or Russia-funded groups, which continue targeting countries supporting Kyiv. These attacks, carried out in response to political, military, and diplomatic backing for Ukraine, served Russian espionage purposes and were also an attempt to demonstrate “power” by Russia. In 2023, Kremlin-linked information networks aimed to undermine European unity and erode European citizens’ trust in national institutions, the European Union, and NATO. Following the EU’s ban on Russian media outlets such as RT and Sputnik on the territory of its member states, as well as stricter policies against Moscow’s disinformation, Russia turned to support from media networks in third countries to push its narratives.
In 2023, Russian disinformation campaigns also focused on blaming NATO and Western countries for the Russian invasion of Ukraine. In addition, Moscow swiftly seized the opportunity to underscore political divisions within the United States concerning funding for Ukraine. They also interpreted the varying stances of Ukraine’s Western allies in their favour, pushing the narrative that Ukraine’s international partners had “shifted” their support away from Kyiv – politically, economically, and in terms of military aid – in favour of redirecting it towards Israel.
Regarding China, the main avenues of hybrid threats target specific elements within the Chinese diaspora in the European Union. Economically, Beijing continues its strategy of acquiring know-how and securing a competitive edge through innovation – this includes espionage, establishing joint ventures, fostering business contacts through scientific cooperation by Chinese firms, and signing bilateral agreements at the academic level. Throughout 2023, China has remained one of the main actors on the cyber front, aiming to shape foreign public opinion in favour of the People’s Republic of China, positioning itself as “a reliable and trustful partner”. Additionally, China has been hiring well-known influencers to promote a positive image of the country.
