There is a growing number of voices suggesting that Europe should prepare for a potential war with Russia. While it remains uncertain whether such a conflict will actually occur, the fact that politicians and analysts openly discuss the possibility suggests that the danger is real.
In a recent interview, Gabrielius Landsbergis, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Lithuania, mentioned that if Russia is not completely defeated in Ukraine, it may attack Europe again. Jacek Sędera, the head of Poland’s National Security Bureau and the secretary of the president’s office, also warned that NATO’s eastern flank countries should prepare themselves for potential Russian aggression within the next three years. Additionally, U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken has advised that Russia must be stopped in Ukraine to prevent it from attacking NATO countries, which could lead to a broader conflict involving the United States.
Germany’s Defense Minister, Boris Pistorius, has stated that NATO countries, including the Baltic states, are facing a direct military threat from Russia. He insisted that Putin’s threats should be taken seriously and noted that Europe has five to eight years to prepare for potential confrontation.
Marc Thys, Retired Belgian Army General and former commander of the land forces, has warned that Europe has significantly less time to prepare for a potential conflict with Russia. He, along with the Polish expert Jacek Sędera, believes that NATO has only three years to prepare for such a scenario and emphasises the importance of avoiding such conflict.
The Chief of Staff of the Belgian Army, Admiral Michel Hofman, has also warned that a war with Russia could be imminent. He urgently calls on Europe to prepare, as he also believes that following Ukraine, the Baltic countries and Moldova could be the next targets for Russia. “The fact that Russia appears weakened in the war with Ukraine should not be deceiving,” emphasizes the head of the Belgian General Staff. “This is only a temporary situation. Putin is building up the military industry, trying to reformat the army, and if Russia succeeds in defeating Ukraine, all of this can escalate into a global war in Europe”.
The Commander of the multinational NATO Northeastern Corps, Lieutenant General Jürgen-Joachim von Sandrart, said that Russia has been restoring its military potential and mobilising resources not only for the war with Ukraine but also for potential aggression against NATO countries. He has also highlighted the significant threat to the Baltic Sea region and called for more comprehensive preparation of Alliance countries to face future challenges.
“Europe needs to prepare immediately to contain Russia even without extensive support from the United States”, asserts Professor Justin Bronk, a senior research fellow in military air and technology at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) in the UK. He emphasizes that in the event of a potential clash between the United States and China in the late 2020s, Russia may take advantage of the situation to attack Europe. In his opinion, all of Russia’s actions indicate that it is preparing for such a scenario against NATO countries. To prevent this and restrain Russia from tempting to discredit Article 5 of the Alliance treaty in Europe, European NATO members must increase investments in ammunition production, redirect military training, and restructure their forces.
Analysts from the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) are also convinced that Russia intends to test the resilience of the North Atlantic Alliance in the near future. “The long-term efforts of the Russian army in restructuring and expansion, as well as measures for gradual mobilisation of the defence industrial base, are aimed specifically at preparing the aggressor country for a future large-scale conventional war against NATO”, the institute believes.
It is satisfying to see the civilised world awaken from its state of perennial relaxation. For Ukraine, this is a positive development since a lot now depends on the assistance of partners. It is never too late to acknowledge Russia’s true nature. The time available to address these challenges is limited but not impossible.
Whether the right conclusions will be made and whether Europe will manage to mobilise is a separate question, though. In March 2022, French President Emmanuel Macron announced that France should prepare for a high-intensity war in Europe, as the situation in Ukraine was just unfolding. He promised to increase the defence budget from 40 to 50 billion euros by 2025. It is unclear whether the talks about the Russian threat prior to the election were just pre-election rhetoric or whether European elites had already recognised the danger and taken action. It is unlikely that the voices we hear about the threat from Russia represent a unified perspective of the local political elites. As it often happens, despite some preparations, people are never truly ready for a real confrontation.
What’s worse, there is still a fear of Russia both in Europe and in the United States. And it’s not just about such a classic argument of Putin using nuclear weapons, which has a powerful hypnotic effect, so to say, no one wants this fool to start shelling European cities with his outdated rockets that carry nuclear warheads. Referring to Russia as the evil of the planetary scale, Western politicians perceive its existence as an inevitability. And this is very bad. They are ready to fight with it if necessary; they are even ready to submit to it if they fail to restrain and appease it. However, no one is brave enough to admit that this monster can be defeated. Because without destroying Russia, there will never be peace. Today is perhaps the best moment to do it. All of the totalitarian regimes in the world are not as dangerous as the monstrous terrorist empire that has subjugated and dominated one-sixth of the Earth.
Modern Russia is a ruin that should be dismembered, giving the numerous oppressed peoples it has conquered, absorbed and denied its identity the opportunity to break free. Russia has long ceased to be so strong and significant. Yes, it has a large territory and has a lot of cannon fodder to be thrown into its bloodthirsty wars, and yet this fodder still needs to be armed and trained. Russia’s resources have significantly dwindled, with the recovery of potential being only in the initial stages. Putin is begging for missiles and shells from North Korea, and this does speak volumes. Yes, Russia still possesses nuclear weapons, but it is not an insurmountable problem. The collapse of the USSR confirms this. A bit of creative approach and money—and Putin’s red button will either turn out to be a dummy or will even rest in the safe of the NATO secretary-general.
If the West doesn’t want to get its hands dirty, Russia can be overthrown by the hands of Ukrainians, who have no choice but to destroy the monster determined to annihilate them. But only if there is a true will to do so. Russia can be overthrown and defeated by the subdued peoples of the empire, even by Russia’s closest neighbours, who are supposedly its partners. Armenians, Georgians, Kazakhs, Chinese—all would gladly carve out a piece of imperial monster for themselves.
The world’s leading economies would no doubt be interested in the resources that Russia possesses and their potential redistribution. Instead, we see only fear and unwillingness to solve the problem decisively. Such actions, supposedly, could provoke chaos, inconvenience, and problems… Unfortunately, the democratic world is too lazy and insecure to resort to such a scenario. The aura of unpredictability and madness created by the Kremlin madman seems to have paralysed the West’s common sense and disabled its instinct for self-preservation. The only thing that inspires hope in the inevitability of Russia’s destruction is Russia itself, which is deteriorating and becoming inadequate day by day.
