Trump’s dogged bid to lay claim to Greenland is pushing Europeans to ask a question they would rather avoid: could they defend themselves without the Americans? Europe’s reliance on U.S. intelligence and weapons runs deep, leaving little time for soul-searching and even less for delay. Something has to give. But what, exactly?
One idea now circulating in Brussels is the creation of a permanent European force of 100,000 troops.
The proposal comes from European Defence Commissioner Andrius Kubilius, the former prime minister of Lithuania. He floated it on 11 January at a security conference in Sälen, Sweden. “From the very beginning of my mandate, I have said we face two challenges: the Russian threat and the possible departure of the United States,” Kubilius said. If that second scenario were to materialise, he asked, “how do we replace the 100,000 American troops who form the core of Europe’s military power?”
Kubilius also unveiled another idea: a European Security Council charged with debating the most critical security issues and preparing decisions. The body could include 10 to 12 members, some with permanent seats, and could be open to non-EU countries such as the United Kingdom, according to the French weekly La Croix.
Hovering in the background is the familiar idea of a “coalition of the willing” — a grouping Emmanuel Macron hopes to coax into becoming a European core inside NATO. It is a distinctly French ambition, fuzzy around the edges but persistent, and one that can be traced back to the era of Charles de Gaulle. Elsewhere in Europe, however, enthusiasm remains limited. “Today, no country really knows how this coalition could be turned into the nucleus of a genuine European force,” La Croix notes.
Kubilius’s proposal has also predictably run into resistance at home. Figures on the far right and among sovereigntists moved quickly to push back. Pierre-Romain Thionnet of Marine Le Pen’s National Rally voiced his “categorical opposition to any idea of a single European army”, warning it would deprive states of their “freedom of action”. Others were more circumspect. Patrice Trompérin, a colonel in France’s air and space force, questioned whether “an army can exist outside the framework of a state at all.”
Still, he argues that Europe is far from powerless. Taken together, its military capabilities — however fragmented — comfortably outweigh Russia’s, whether measured by defence spending ($450bn compared with $149bn), troop numbers, or air and naval strength, even if Europe lags behind in armoured vehicles. That leaves room for progress on European defence. It just won’t come in a single leap, but through multiple, mostly intergovernmental, tracks.
For now, key players remain unconvinced. Germany, Poland and much of northern Europe have shown little appetite for the idea of a European army. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte was even more dismissive. “If anyone here still believes that the European Union, or Europe as a whole, can defend itself without the United States, keep dreaming,” he said. What he did not explain is how Europeans should respond if Washington were to seize Greenland — an island that is part of the Kingdom of Denmark. In that scenario, what, exactly, would remain of transatlantic solidarity, or of NATO itself?
For now, Europe’s NATO members are keeping their ambitions modest, focusing on the “Readiness 2030” plan. It boils down to two choices: loosen budget rules to pour more money into defence, or take on up to €150 billion in loans to fund joint purchases of military equipment. Europe’s bureaucratic machinery is slow and unwieldy, but events are leaving it little room to manoeuvre. If the fighting in Ukraine drags on — and there is little sign it will stop, with the aggressor still far from spent — Europeans will have to move faster and accept a new level of risk.
The shift would hardly be without precedent. In February 2022, Europe was gingerly offering Ukraine little more than helmets and sleeping bags, anxious not to be seen as a “co-belligerent”. Today, it is supplying aircraft, tanks and advanced air defence systems. Against that backdrop, it is no longer unthinkable that Europe could, over time, move towards fully fledged, permanent armed forces of its own — particularly if the United States were to pull its 100,000 troops out of European bases. What it would take, above all, is a willingness to stop hesitating.
