The Kremlin’s usual mix of arrogance and impunity, long left unchecked, is beginning to lose its impact—especially on those it still hopes to intimidate. In Baku, patience has clearly run out. Neither the downing of a civilian plane over Chechnya nor the recent wave of raids across Russia targeting Azerbaijanis—with beatings and arrests to match—have been forgiven or forgotten.
Azerbaijan’s response has been sharp and deliberate. It began by shutting down the local Sputnik bureau and arresting its leadership. Days later, Azerbaijani forces dismantled two Russian-linked criminal networks accused of smuggling drugs from Iran into Russian territory.
At a press conference in Baku, Samira Najafzade, spokesperson for Azerbaijan’s Prosecutor General’s Office, publicly accused Russia of serious breaches of international law, according to the news site Minval. “Torture is banned under relevant international treaties. Azerbaijan remains a party to the European Convention on Human Rights, while Russia has withdrawn from it,” she said. She also warned that “any violation of Azerbaijan’s interests or the rights of its citizens abroad will be subject to criminal prosecution by Azerbaijani law enforcement.”
So what exactly happened in Yekaterinburg? Out of the blue, Russian authorities reopened a murder case dating back more than two decades. Fifty people were detained—almost all of them ethnic Azerbaijanis, many holding Azerbaijani passports. Among those swept up in the operation were individuals who were just three or four years old at the time the killing took place.
That Russia’s law enforcement might genuinely believe toddlers could have been involved in a murder would be laughable—if it weren’t so grim. But Moscow has long inhabited a world where war is peace and lies pass for truth. Most disturbing of all, two detainees reportedly died during arrest—eyewitnesses say under torture. Three more later died in hospital.
The arrests came on the heels of an aggressive anti-Azerbaijani campaign in the Russian media, eerily reminiscent of the smear campaigns that preceded Moscow’s assault on Ukraine in 2014. What appears to have triggered this latest wave of hostility is Baku’s insistence on accountability for the downing of a civilian Azerbaijani airliner on 25 December 2024. Azerbaijani outlets are now reporting that the order to fire came directly from Russia’s Ministry of Defence. The news site Minval has published what it says is a fragment of an audio recording, along with a letter from a soldier who may have carried out the command.
“We’re not claiming the letter is genuine, even though it bears the signature of a captain,” the article reads. “But its very existence — and the significance of the document both for the investigation, now in its sixth month, and for the public — compels us to publish it… As for the audio clips — three voice messages that back up the contents of the letter — these can, with reasonable confidence, be considered authentic… All three speakers said they had received an operational command, fired twice, and that shrapnel from the missile explosion struck the plane.”
And so, what looks like an Azerbaijani version of a tape scandal has begun to unfold. Few doubt it’s just the opening move. Azerbaijan has a well-organised security apparatus and a powerful ally in Turkey, whose intelligence services are among the most capable in the region. The severity of Baku’s response — to both Moscow’s anti-Azerbaijani propaganda and the deaths in police custody in Yekaterinburg — suggests the “tapes” are far from its final card.
Concerts, festivals, and exhibitions featuring Russian artists — many of whom had hoped to earn easy money touring the republic — have all been cancelled. The Baku office of Russia Today’s Sputnik Azerbaijan has been shut down. Its director and editor-in-chief have been arrested. By coincidence — or perhaps not — an Azerbaijani court today handed four-month prison sentences to a group of Russian propagandists. Employees of Sputnik were charged with fraud, illegal business activity and laundering property acquired through criminal means. According to Azerbaijan’s APA news agency, two FSB officers were among those detained during the sweep.
The arrests didn’t stop there. Alongside staff from Sputnik and Ruptly, Azerbaijani special forces detained around ten Russian nationals, accusing them of drug smuggling from Iran, cybercrime, and involvement in organised criminal groups. On Tuesday, the Interior Ministry announced it had dismantled two criminal networks operating in Baku, both of which reportedly included Russian citizens.
In this part of the world, nothing happens by accident. If President Ilham Aliyev is calmly and confidently forcing Moscow into a tight corner, it’s a safe bet he knows exactly what his next move is — tomorrow, next week, or next month. The Kremlin emerges from this confrontation looking weakened — and that, in itself, is welcome news for Ukraine. If a small country like Azerbaijan isn’t afraid to raise its voice against what Moscow still likes to call “the world’s strongest army,” then why should the US or Italy think twice?
