The Inspector General of the Bundeswehr, German General Carsten Breuer, told Die Welt that by next year, the Russian army will be twice the size it was before the full-scale war against Ukraine began. He also pointed out that Russia is producing or refurbishing around 1,500 battle tanks every year—far more than it would need for fighting Ukrainian forces alone. Given this, Breuer believes that by 2029, Russia could be in a position to launch a large-scale attack on NATO territory.
“Putin’s aim is to weaken and ultimately dismantle NATO as an alliance, and to discredit our Western way of life,” he said. “Will it come to that? We don’t know. But we are clearly limiting that possibility for the adversary through deterrence—that is, through our own defence capabilities. Even so, we are already facing hybrid warfare: sabotage, espionage, and disinformation campaigns launched by Russia. These are not abstract threats—they are happening every day, including here in Germany.”
One of Carsten Breuer’s key tasks today is getting the Bundeswehr ready for war. He admits he would have liked Germany to be further along in that process, but says important progress has already been made. The country has restructured both its defence ministry and armed forces to focus more squarely on national and allied defence, and has significantly sped up procurement—cutting in half the time it takes to buy a battle tank and deliver it to the military.
“By the end of this year, for the first time, the Bundeswehr will be firing what are known as ‘loitering munitions’—not just testing them, but using them in combat exercises,” Breuer said. “Our brigade in Lithuania is growing. And we’ve used special resources to plug some of the gaps left over from the years of peace dividends. Not all of them are closed yet, but with more stable funding now in place, we’ll be able to finish the job in the coming years.”
Friedrich Merz previously stated that the German army should receive funding for everything it needs, arguing that it is time for Germany to invest in its military at a level not seen since the Cold War. At the same time, CNN notes that public attitudes toward the military are also shifting. A survey conducted by German broadcaster ARD in March found that 66% of respondents support increasing defence spending and funding for the Bundeswehr.
Germany’s Inspector General says top procurement priorities will include air defence systems, long-range precision weapons, and drones. But the challenges facing the Bundeswehr go beyond equipment. Germany’s Parliamentary Commissioner for the Armed Forces, Eva Högl, has warned that the military is “shrinking and ageing.”
Breuer believes the country needs around 100,000 additional reservists. But with the labour market unlikely to supply those numbers, he says Germany must begin to rely more broadly on military service—however it can be organised.
“Given our commitments to NATO and Germany’s role as a logistical hub for troop deployments along the eastern flank, I believe we need a force of 460,000 soldiers and reservists,” Breuer says. “Our target remains around 200,000 active personnel. But with demographic changes, I don’t think the labour market will be able to provide many more.”
He adds: “We already have a standing reserve of 60,000, and I’m counting on another 100,000 coming from the pool of 800,000 former soldiers who have left the service over the years.”
