In this week’s Sunday digest, The Ukrainian Week will look into the EU’s historic decision to begin accession talks with Ukraine and Moldova, complications regarding the foreign military and financial aid to Ukraine, and the recent developments on a frontline.
Foreign policy and foreign aid:
- European Union gives the green light to open membership talks with Ukraine and Moldova: On Thursday, December 14, Charles Michel, the President of the European Council, announced that the leaders of the European Union have decided to start EU accession negotiations with Ukraine and Moldova. The relevant decision was agreed upon in Brussels during the EU summit. Charles Michel announced this in his X (formerly Twitter) account, adding that the EU candidate status has been granted to Georgia. Charles Michel called this historic decision “a clear signal of hope for their people and for our continent”. Hungary, which has been maintaining close ties with Russia and has long opposed Ukraine’s EU membership, did not vote but veto that move. Hungary’s prime minister, Viktor Orban, left the negotiating room in what officials described as a pre-agreed manner, while the other 26 leaders went ahead with the vote.
- EU will soon allocate 1,5 billion euros to Ukraine: After the summit in Brussels on December 15, Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, announced that the EU would soon allocate 1,5 billion euros to Ukraine. According to Ursula von der Leyen, this funding will help to meet Ukraine’s needs in early 2024. “We are working very hard to have an agreement by 27 member states,” European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said, adding: “But I think it is now also necessary to work on potential alternatives to have an operational solution in case that an agreement by 27 is not possible”. She also emphasised that “for the European Union, it is very important that Ukraine has stable, predictable, and reliable financial support”.
- Orban blocks 50 billion euros in EU aid for Ukraine: On December 14, During the summit, Hungary blocked 50 billion euros in EU aid for Ukraine, just several hours after an agreement was reached on starting membership talks. Reuters reported that the EU leaders, who would prefer a deal backed by all members but also have a plan B, are expected to revisit the issue at an emergency summit at the end of January or early in February. After the summit, Orban, who has a long history of using disagreements with other EU member states for his electoral benefit, told Hungarian state radio that he had blocked the aid to ensure Budapest gets EU money that was earlier frozen over concerns about the rule of law in Hungary.
- Zelensky makes a trip to Washington in an attempt to win the support of Republicans: On Tuesday, December 12, Volodymyr Zelensky made a trip to Washington to personally urge members of Congress to continue military and economic assistance to Ukraine in its fight against Russian aggression. This is Zelensky’s third trip to Washington since the start of the full-scale war with Russia. On Tuesday morning, Zelensky met with members of Congress and President Joe Biden. Afterwards, the Washington Post wrote that “Zelensky was unable to win over Congress as Biden’s Ukraine package stalls”, saying that the Ukrainian leader’s visit to Washington did little to move Republicans resisting further support for the war without a deal on immigration reform. The New York Times concluded that “Republicans sidelined Zelensky with their demands regarding the Mexican border, leveraging the aid package for Ukraine”. Reuters reported on Friday, December 15, that The U.S. Senate will vote on military aid for Ukraine and Israel in the coming week as negotiations continue over changes to U.S. border security policy that would be tied to Ukraine’s funding. According to Reuters, the Senate will delay its holiday break and convene on Monday, December 18, to give negotiators time to reach an agreement.
- The U.S. military aid: Volodymyr Zelensky met with U.S. President Joe Biden. During the meeting, the American president announced a new aid package for Ukraine valued at up to $200 million. This announcement is the Biden Administration’s fifty-third tranche of equipment to be provided for Ukraine since August 2021. The package includes additional air defence capabilities, artillery ammunition, anti-tank weapons, and other equipment to help Ukraine counter Russia’s ongoing invasion. The package will include AIM-9M missiles for air defence, additional ammunition for HIMARS, 155mm and 105mm artillery rounds, HARMs, TOW missiles, Javelin and AT-4 anti-armour systems.
- Ukraine and Romania resolved a dispute over the construction of the Danube-Black Sea navigation route. On December 16, Ruslan Strilets, Ukraine’s Minister of Environmental Protection, announced that Ukraine and Romania have finally resolved a lengthy conflict over the construction of the Danube-Black Sea navigation route. He said the dispute was resolved at the 9th meeting of the Convention on Environmental Impact Assessment in a Transboundary Context in Geneva. “We have done our homework and came a long way to fulfil the Convention’s requirements”, he wrote on social media. Previously, Bucharest was accusing Kyiv of a lack of environmental impact assessment; the project was also heavily criticised by the European Commission. The dispute has been ongoing since 2004 when Ukraine started the construction of the canal through the Danube Delta distributaries Chilia, Old Istambul, and Bystre.
Domestic issues:
- A Russian hacker group claims responsibility for the cyberattack on Kyivstar, a Ukrainian mobile operator: On the morning of December 12, Kyivstar subscribers reported a communication outage, which the company later attributed to a powerful hacker attack. Kyivstar assured that the subscribers’ personal data was not compromised. On December 13, the Russian hacking group Solntsepek claimed responsibility for the attack. Russian hackers explained the attack, saying that the company provides communication for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Kyivstar’s president, Oleksandr Komarov, said that hackers managed to breach the cybersecurity of the mobile operator through a compromised account of one of the employees. Some Kyivstar subscribers began to regain connectivity on the evening of December 13.
- Kyrylo Budanov on mobilisation: The Head of the Ministry of Defence Main Intelligence Directorate, Kyrylo Budanov, announced that at the moment, the combined personnel of the Ukrainian Defence Forces exceed one million. According to Budanov, only a well-organised mobilisation programme can keep up with such numbers, and Ukraine won’t do without it. He also noted that when the large-scale Russian invasion happened in February 2022, everyone willing to fight was either already dispatched to various units on the frontline or had joined the military in the first six months. Budanov also added that when it comes to mobilisation, a question of motivation arises, and this issue has to be publically addressed. “We need to give up on the idea that we can move forward without mobilisation. We have many people who are not willing to do anything. There will be losses, and this quantity needs to be maintained constantly”, noted Budanov. He added that “everyone seems to be rooting for Ukraine, yet many people are still fleeing”. There is a need for honest discussion, he said. “A significant number of people were not ready to defend their country. And if it’s war – it’s war, we have to acknowledge it, and there’s no need to be afraid of it”.
Russian invasion of Ukraine:
- Updates from the frontlines: The Russian army is attacking across the entire front, from Kharkiv to the south; they advanced in the area of Kreminna and retreated in the region of Stepove near Avdiivka. In the Kharkiv region, Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks in the areas of Ivanivka, Synkivka, and Petropavlivka. In this direction, the Russian army is deploying new reserves for assaults, allegedly trying to compensate for the earlier losses. The Russian army seeks to capture the village of Synkivka in the Kharkiv region to establish a foothold for the future occupation of Kupyansk and other territories in the western direction. In the Lyman direction, battles have been reported in the areas of Spirne, Terniv, and Veselyy in the Donetsk region and further north in the area of Makiivka in the Luhansk region. The American Institute for the Study of War considers that Russian military forces have “slightly advanced” to the southeast of Dibrova. Around Avdiivka, “the Russian occupiers were unable to secure their positions”, said Vitaliy Barabash, the head of the Avdiivka Military Civil Administration. According to him, current gains achieved by the Russians are a slightly expanded “grey zone”. He also added that the majority of Russian attacks in Avdiivka are so-called “cannon fodder” attacks with well-trained personnel units not taking part in frontal attacks.
- Ukraine is building fortifications: Oleksandra Ustinova, the Head of the Ukrainian Parliament’s Special Temporary Commission on the Monitoring the Supply of Weapons, said that Ukraine is already preparing alternative solutions in case there are delays in Western weapons supply. She mentioned that Ukraine is building three lines of fortifications for defensive warfare. Ustinova said that from the U.S. aid package to Ukraine, over 20 billion dollars were allocated for weapons and 11,8 billion for direct budget financing. According to Ustinova, in case Western military aid starts running low, Ukraine has already been preparing a series of decisions. “We are preparing fortifications, currently three lines, understanding that perhaps, during the winter, we may need to switch to defensive warfare, not going on the offensive as before”.
- Russia attacks Ukrainian capital: In the early morning hours of December 16, Russian forces attacked Kyiv for the sixth time this month. The air raid alarm in the capital lasted for over four hours. The Kyiv City Military Administration reported that the Russian army attacked the Ukrainian capital using kamikaze drones. The drones attacked in groups and came from different directions. Earlier, on December 13, Russian occupation forces launched ten ballistic missiles in an attack on Kyiv. Ukraine’s Air Defence Forces reportedly intercepted all of the missiles. However, later in the day, the Kyiv City State Administration and the Air Force press service reported that the missile debris fell in various areas of the Ukrainian capital, injuring 53 people. The Kyiv City Military Administration compared Russia’s December attacks to the tactics they used in May 2023, when Russians combined drones and different types of missiles, including Iskander, Kinzhal missiles and Shahed kamikaze drones.
- Germany’s Bild on Russian offers of negotiations: “They are planning no ceasefire”. Russia plans to establish full control over the Donetsk and Luhansk regions by the end of 2024 and advance to the Oskil River in the Kharkiv region, intending to continue the full-scale war until 2026. According to the German newspaper, the Russian government anticipates a significant decrease in support for Ukraine from the West. Russia will likely attempt to simulate peace negotiations, trying to convince the global community that Russia has “peaceful intentions.” In reality, the Kremlin has no interest in an actual ceasefire and is developing a new medium-term plan for the war in Ukraine. It is reported that Russia intends to continue advancing westward to the Dnipro River by the end of 2026, capturing a significant portion of the Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv regions, including the cities of Kharkiv, Dnipro, and Zaporizhzhia.
- Die Welt on Ukraine’s plans in 2024: Based on weapons and military equipment requests, including Black Hawk and Apache helicopters, F-16 and F-18 fighter jets, long-range missile systems, Abrams tanks, numerous drones, and ammunition, Ukraine has begun gathering resources for a new counteroffensive in 2024. One of the focal points for the offensive operations could be a foothold on the left bank of the Dnipro River in the Kherson region. In its article published on December 15, Die Welt notes Ukraine’s Armed Forces Chief of Staff, Valeriy Zaluzhny, is already preparing plans to liberate Ukrainian territories occupied by the Russian forces. According to the journalists, aviation plays a crucial role in a future counteroffensive operation. In addition, Die Welt also cited Nico Lange, the German security expert who is convinced that Ukraine is making a strategic bet on wearing Russians down. Lange notes that the Russian army, he noted, is simply “grinding down” against the strong Ukrainian defence, saying that “they no longer try to hold positions like in Bakhmut. Instead, they want to slow down the Russian forces and make them bleed out”. Die Welt also reports that Zaluzhny was not enthusiastic about starting the counteroffensive in the summer of 2023. He was sceptical about the operation’s success without a proper amount of aviation that would support the ground forces. Die Welt also believes that Zaluzhny agreed to conduct the counteroffensive for political reasons.
