Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos is drawing strong attention in the Western media. His words drew a rare standing ovation from world leaders in the room, and the address is already being called historic for sketching the contours of a new global order.
Carney argued that the world — and Canada in particular — has reached a decisive moment, one that signals a clear break with the international order that has shaped recent decades. “This is the end of a comfortable fiction and the start of a harsher reality, where geopolitics — more precisely, the geopolitics of great powers, of ‘superpowers’ — is no longer constrained by rules. A world where nothing holds them back,” he said. “But other countries, especially so-called middle powers like Canada, are not without agency. They have the ability to help build a new order rooted in shared values — respect for human rights, sustainable development, solidarity, sovereignty and the territorial integrity of states.”
Carney is equally blunt about the past. In his view, the so-called rules-based international order had long been partly a fiction. Everyone understood that the strongest states could bend or ignore the rules when it suited them — whether through lopsided trade arrangements or the selective application of international law.
“It was a fiction, but a useful one,” Carney said. “American hegemony, in particular, helped deliver public goods: open sea lanes, a stable financial system, collective security, and frameworks for settling disputes. We all took part in the rituals and largely avoided confronting the gap between rhetoric and reality. That bargain no longer holds.”
He also argued that pooling resources to build resilience is far cheaper than each country trying to turn itself into a fortress — and that smart complementarity pays off for everyone. “Canadians know that the old, reassuring idea — that geography and alliance membership automatically guarantee prosperity and security — no longer works,” he said. “Our new approach is rooted in what Finland’s president, Alexander Stubb, calls ‘values-based realism’: an effort to be principled and pragmatic at the same time.”
Speaking to The Ukrainian Week, political analyst Maksym Dzhyhun said the United States has long been Canada’s natural anchor. “For decades, Canada saw the US as its main export market and, at the same time, a vast source of imports — as well as the country that was, at least in theory, meant to defend Canada through the deep integration of military systems,” he said. “It was a natural partnership between two democracies that understand each other well and have a shared interest in deepening cooperation.”
Lately, though, Carney has taken a series of steps that point to a more cautious approach — especially in bilateral economic and political ties with Washington. His Davos speech, Dzhyhun argues, effectively marked the high point of a broader strategic shift now taking shape in Ottawa.
“Canada is now leaning more towards autonomy and building coalitions with other countries — something it hasn’t done to this extent before. Western media call this ‘selective autonomy’: in some areas, Canada can still rely on the US and maintain partnerships, while signalling that a full, across-the-board alliance shouldn’t be assumed. Carney has paid particular attention to middle powers — those outside the circle of global hegemons, but still influential when they act together,” Maksym Dzhyhun told The Ukrainian Week.
Canada has, for the first time in a century, run through a scenario for how it might respond if US forces ever invaded. The plan borrows tactics from the Afghan mujahideen—first used against Soviet troops, and later against NATO forces in Afghanistan.
Military planners assume that the United States could breach Canadian defensive positions on land and at sea in just a few days. With limited resources and a relatively small military, Canada is exploring the option of a guerrilla-style defence. Chief of the Defence Staff Jennie Carignan has announced plans to build a reserve of more than 400,000 volunteers who could be mobilised if tensions escalate. According to the Ministry of Defence, the country would have at most three months to prepare for a potential invasion.
“When statements like Trump’s talk of annexing Canada as the 51st state appear, it would have been political suicide for the new Liberal government not to take preventive steps, even hypothetically. Failing to respond to a direct threat would be short-sighted, both politically and militarily. That’s why they had to react the way they did,” Maksym Dzhyhun told The Ukrainian Week.
At the same time, Canada is selectively distancing itself from certain US military initiatives. That could mean scaling back contributions to specific operations led by Washington while maintaining strategic ties elsewhere.
“Canada is also looking to diversify its defence procurement, and it’s already taking action,” Maksym Dzhyhun told The Ukrainian Week. “For example, in 2025 reports surfaced that Canada wants to buy submarines worth around €10 billion — and they plan to source them not from the US, but from a German company. There’s also a lot of discussion about purchases from South Korea, Israel, and other EU countries. At the same time, significant efforts are being made to support the domestic market, with large quantities of weapons being bought from Canadian manufacturers.
“But what they definitely cannot do — at least for now — is step away from the shared air defence system, aviation, and NORAD, which involves very deep integration between the two countries.”
