Eight SAMP-T air defence systems and 100 Rafale F4 fighter jets for Ukraine were announced during Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s ninth visit to France. If Ukrainian-French negotiations result in concrete agreements, the move could elevate bilateral relations to a new level. The cooperation is significant not only for Ukraine, which seeks to strengthen its defence capabilities, but also for France, where large military orders support jobs, generate budget revenue, and enhance the country’s industrial reputation.
During the visit, several industrial agreements were also signed, including a contract with Alstom for the supply of locomotives to Ukrzaliznytsia. Manufacturers have pledged that the first locomotives will be delivered as early as 2027.
The Élysée Palace clarified that the broader agreement, intended to last “for decades,” will cover Rafale jets, missiles, the SAMP-T system, radars, drones, and AASM Hammer bombs. “This marks a turning point compared with arms deliveries in 2022,” Le Figaro noted. If a full agreement is signed quickly and financing approved, any future French president would be unlikely to cancel the Dassault Aviation contract with Ukraine. By comparison, the Rafale deal with India covers 26 fighters, a deal French experts consider a major success.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy described his meeting with Emmanuel Macron on November 17 as “a great day.” He also raised the possibility of joint Rafale production in Ukraine, which could take place after the war ends. Macron expressed hope that hostilities could be brought to a halt “by 2027,” ahead of France’s next presidential election. He cannot run for a third term, and no one can predict with certainty who will succeed him. That makes it all the more urgent to finalise a full agreement with France while the current government remains in office, the front line holds, and Trump has not attempted to reconcile with Putin again.
Unlike many other European leaders, Macron has consistently emphasised the importance of Europe achieving strategic autonomy in security. He called for this approach from the start of his first term, but Brussels only began to take his warnings seriously after Donald Trump returned to power. Europeans were forced to confront the reality that the United States could no longer be counted on as an unconditional and reliable guarantor of their security, while Russia poses an unmistakable existential threat to the free world.
If European banks agree to finance the Ukrainian-French deal for Rafale jets and SAMP-T systems, it would set an important precedent, signalling a shift toward investing in European rather than American weaponry. The move reflects the emergence of a new strategy and a new geography of defence cooperation. The French Rafale is particularly attractive to Ukraine and other European states because of its design philosophy. The Dassault aircraft was conceived from the start to ensure France’s strategic autonomy, including for nuclear deterrence missions, and was developed to replace seven different types of aircraft in the French armed forces. Unlike the F-35, it does not require regular updates that only the American manufacturer can provide.
“Rebuilding Ukraine’s army is a duty for our collective security,” French President Emmanuel Macron said at a joint press conference with his Ukrainian counterpart. He added that France is currently financing its aid program for Ukraine from its own resources, while also hoping for funding coordinated at the European level. The support, Macron stressed, is not motivated by goodwill alone, but by the recognition that Ukraine has shielded Europe from new waves of aggression. “Participation in this program is in France’s interests,” he said, summarising the rationale for the cooperation.
French daily Le Monde noted that “like all letters of intent, the document signed on Monday is not an official agreement, but merely a formalisation of ongoing negotiations.” Importantly, there are no clear guarantees yet on funding for the production and purchase of weapons. “At this stage, both France and Ukraine are facing a severe lack of funds,” the newspaper reported. “In the budget bill currently under consideration in parliament, only €120 million is earmarked for aid to Ukraine, both civilian and military. Of this, €50 million is allocated for ‘development assistance,’ financed by the Ministry of Economy and Finance; €20 million for ‘emergency aid’ from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs budget; and €58 million for ‘support to third countries’ from the Armed Forces Ministry budget.”
French weapons manufacturers are seeking financing through the SAFE (Security Action for Europe) credit, approved by the European Commission this summer. The scheme provides €150 billion for countries with defence investment projects, including support for Ukraine, without repayment obligations for the first ten years. Another potential source of funding is €140 billion from frozen Russian assets. Since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, European leaders have discussed using these funds, but have yet to agree on how they could be deployed.
To fend off new waves of aggression, the free world needs to get stronger. In Paris, officials increasingly see that Europe’s security depends on the success of the Ukrainian military. If Rafale jets soon join Ukraine’s air fleet, the deal would be more than just a big contract for Kyiv and Paris or a win for the European defence industry—it could mark a wider geopolitical shift and send a clear signal about the value of political reliability.
