Political analyst Maksym Dzhyhun spoke with The Ukrainian Week about the possibility of a Canadian government collapse, the key rivals facing newly elected Liberal leader Mark Carney, why Donald Trump will be a significant factor in the election, and whether Canada’s support for Ukraine is likely to change.
– Mark Carney won the Liberal Party of Canada leadership race with 86% of the vote, defeating former finance minister Chrystia Freeland. He is now set to replace Justin Trudeau as prime minister. So, what do we know about Carney’s political stance?
– Carney is not a career politician and has never run in a parliamentary election. His only political connection comes from his father, who once ran for parliament in one of Canada’s central provinces but did not win. During Justin Trudeau’s time as prime minister, Carney was invited several times to join his team, either as a special adviser or in another capacity, to help address Canada’s economic challenges, particularly during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Canadian media have described Carney as “untested” by the elections—his only victory so far being his win in the Liberal leadership race. But in the coming months, he will face the test of a parliamentary election.
– Opposition parties have already pledged to bring down the government when the new parliamentary session kicks off on 24 March. How likely is this?
– I’d say there’s a 90% chance this is exactly what will happen. It’s not just the opposition—recent Liberal allies, like Jagmeet Singh’s New Democratic Party, are on board too. They effectively formed the last government with the Liberals, offering their support until 2024, when a political storm engulfed the prime minister. Singh then made it clear that if Trudeau didn’t step down, he and his party would vote for a motion of no confidence.
Now, even with a new Liberal leader in place, it’s highly probable that Parliament won’t even be allowed to vote on routine procedural matters needed to restart its work. The Conservatives are firmly committed to this course, and to a slightly lesser extent, so are the NDP and the Bloc Québécois. This would mean a Parliament that hasn’t even met, passed a single decision, or held any debates could be thrust into a snap election, likely in May or June.
From speaking with friends on both Conservative and Liberal campaign teams, it’s clear they’re already in full election mode. In fact, the Liberals even used the leadership race to bolster their campaign funds.
– Who are likely to be Carney’s main competitors in the upcoming election?
– The situation is quite interesting. After Trudeau announced his decision to step down as party leader and prime minister, Liberal support began to surge. By the end of last week, the gap between the Conservatives and Liberals had narrowed to 6–10% in favour of the Conservatives. Just back in December, the Liberals were trailing by 25–30%.
At the moment, the Liberal Party is enjoying a significant surge in support nationwide. This is largely because Liberal voters—and Canadians more broadly—see Carney as the long-awaited change in political leadership. After nearly a decade in power, many have simply grown tired of Trudeau.
So, when it comes to Carney’s main challenger, it’s undoubtedly the Conservative Party of Canada. No other party even comes close to 20% support—the New Democratic Party sits at 15%. While the NDP, with its left-leaning, highly social agenda, does pose some competition for the Liberals, the real challenge will come from the Conservatives.
Their leader, Pierre Poilievre, has played a central role in the dramatic decline of Trudeau’s approval ratings since late 2022, driving them down to a staggering 10–15%—a low the Liberal Party hasn’t seen in the past decade. Poilievre’s approach has always focused on personal attacks against Trudeau, painting him as incompetent, making bold and often controversial statements, and chipping away at the Liberals’ voter base.
But Poilievre now faces a significant challenge of his own. He has never been shy about aligning his conservative rhetoric with that of the Republicans. In the past, Canadians generally viewed this favourably, associating it with a “strong hand” in the U.S., especially during Trump’s first term. However, after the current U.S. president made threats against Canada and floated ideas about redrawing its borders, Poilievre has been forced to distance himself, repeatedly insisting he has no connection to such remarks. This, of course, works against him and is one of the reasons his party is now losing support.
– Will Donald Trump be a key factor in the election campaign, given his statements about Canada?
– Absolutely. In fact, I’ve been closely following the debates and the Liberal leadership race, and all four candidates made countering Trump’s rhetoric a top priority. Chrystia Freeland, for instance, highlighted how, as finance minister, she had to push back against Trump on several occasions between 2017 and 2020.
For Carney, the focus is largely economic—he’s a trained economist and a former central bank chief in two countries. His agenda focuses on how to navigate U.S. trade restrictions and what measures Canada can take in response. More broadly, he’s looking at how to restore economic stability in the face of such a challenging neighbour, especially with Canada’s own economic struggles. Karina Gould and Frank Baylis also touched on these concerns.
Naturally, this will be a key issue for voters when choosing their candidate. The ties between American Republicans and Canadian Conservatives pose a major challenge for the Conservative Party—how to reassure voters that they won’t sell out Canada and will stand up to Trump, despite their past rhetoric aligning with his.
– Will Canada’s stance on supporting Ukraine change with the new Liberal Party leader and the upcoming parliamentary elections?
– I don’t expect any changes regarding Ukraine. All of Canada’s parliamentary parties have consistently and unequivocally supported Ukraine, both before the full-scale invasion and after February 2022. Public statements from the Conservative leader, the New Democratic Party leader, Liberal Party representatives, and even members of the Bloc Québécois—a separatist-leaning party—have all shown strong backing for Ukraine.
While Mark Carney hasn’t made many such statements himself, I’m confident he won’t alter Canada’s position on Ukraine. The majority of Liberal MPs are pro-Ukrainian, and notably, the head of the Canada-Ukraine parliamentary friendship group is Yvan Baker, a Ukrainian-Canadian. With several dozen members in this group, their influence will continue to shape the party’s stance and actions.
What else is important? Canada has a population of 40 million, with just over half eligible to vote. Among them, 1.3 to 1.4 million are either members of the Ukrainian diaspora or strong supporters of Ukraine. This means that any anti-Ukrainian stance in Parliament would effectively become a pro-American stance—something Canadians would find unacceptable, as it would signal a willingness to bow to U.S. ultimatums and demands.
What lies ahead for Canadians? Strained relations with the U.S., renewed debates about the potential for Canada to join the U.S., and ongoing uncertainty over tariffs—all contributing to a volatile trade environment. This instability is deeply unsettling for Canadians, given that the U.S. is not only their primary trading partner but also their closest ally.
