“I keep thinking we’re next,” Sultanat says every time we cross paths at a press conference. She’s been repeating that line for three years now—ever since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Not long ago, she found me on social media and called. “Things are getting tense in Kazakhstan. I’m convinced the Russians will come back—with weapons.”
Sultanat once worked for a Kazakh opposition radio station. Her brother ran a media business that, as she put it, “collapsed after criticising Nazarbayev.” After that, the family left for France. She now works in consulting and occasionally writes for Kazakh opposition websites in exile.
In February 2022, after a press conference with Emmanuel Macron, she came up to me, gave a solemn look, and said quietly: “I get it now—you’re fighting for our freedom too. Thank you, Ukraine.”
It’s worth noting that the ability to truly “see the root of things” is still a rarity among French colleagues—especially those on television. Ukraine’s resistance has upended many of the West’s familiar mental frameworks, and that discomfort often shows. But it’s a different story with neighbours from the former prison of nations: they’re usually the first to sense when the Russian dragon begins to wheeze, stumble, and shed its claws—and they waste no time in making their move.
Take Kazakhstan. Businesses set up by Russians fleeing Moscow are now closing down en masse. According to the analytics platform Data Hab, more than 2,000 Russian firms have recently pulled out of the Kazakh market. In their place, Uzbek and Chinese companies are moving in. In July, Astana announced plans to build three new thermal power plants—without a single rouble or Russian blueprint involved.
Kazakhstan has also rolled out a new crude grade, KEBCO, and is now exporting it across the Caspian Sea, bypassing Russia’s Novorossiysk port. That move not only sidesteps the risks tied to sanctions on Russia, but also charts a direct course to European markets. Before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Moscow was the EU’s leading oil and gas supplier. But Ukraine’s fierce resistance has pushed Europe to diversify—and for energy producers beyond Russia, that’s opened the door to a very different future.
“Ukraine has opened this window of opportunity for us—with its blood,” Sultanat says quietly, almost apologetically. “I hope my people have learned the lessons of the past. That we, too, can make a quantum leap, shake off the legacy of the Nazarbayev cult, and learn to live freely—like Ukrainians.”
She says with a hint of pride that since June, Kazakhstan has tightened inspections on goods bound for Russia and rolled out a new tax reform. “That’s what the Russians didn’t like,” she adds.
Russia is weakening, and the former colonies of its bloody empire are doing all they can to get as far away as possible. For Kazakhstan, that means deepening security ties with Turkey, Pakistan and the UK, ramping up involvement in the Organisation of Turkic States, and launching joint energy projects with Azerbaijan. According to OPEC’s July report, both Baku and Astana are expected to play a growing role in supplying Europe with oil over the long term.
