In the European Parliament elections in France, the far-right collectively gathered about 40% of the votes. Final results are still being counted, but Emmanuel Macron has already announced early parliamentary elections. The first round will take place on June 30 and the second on July 7.
“The election results spell bad news for pro-European forces,” remarked President Macron in a televised speech right after the exit poll results were announced. He labelled the soaring popularity of the far-right as a national threat and took a bold move by dissolving the National Assembly.
The National Rally (formerly known as the “National Front”) secured at least 31.15% of the votes. This party has long been an overt political ally of Moscow but has adjusted its rhetoric since the onset of the major conflict. The party’s youthful leader, Jordan Bardella, cautiously and consistently expresses admiration for the “heroic Ukrainian people” yet advocates for lifting sanctions against Russia and opposes providing offensive weapons to Ukraine. If Bardella assumes the role of prime minister following the new parliamentary elections (a prospect that appears quite plausible), promised aircraft and training for Ukrainian pilots, along with other forms of French military assistance, may be jeopardised.
Why did Macron opt for early elections? Mainly because his political faction garnered only half the support of the National Rally – a mere 14.5%. In such a scenario, he would be compelled to extend an offer to Bardella for the role of prime minister, given the sentiments of the electorate. The elections offer a faint hope that the French will come to their senses and that the traditional model of the Republican Front will prove effective – a distinctly French voting system where all factions (right and left, liberals and conservatives) unite against candidates from the National Front (the precursor of the current National Rally).
In practice, this implies that in numerous constituencies, a single ‘Republican’ candidate will be fielded, essentially a politician who stands a chance of surpassing the far-right representative. What implications this might hold for the forthcoming parliament is anyone’s guess. The possibility that protest votes will shift towards ‘Republican’ candidates does theoretically exist. However, the genuine proportion of far-right voters among the 31.5% and the number represented by protest votes remains uncertain.
The fact that the pro-presidential bloc only secured 14.5% of the votes raises deep concerns for Ukraine, given that Macron had prominently featured support for Ukrainian resistance in his election campaign. Additionally, the Socialist Party and the Public Space Party, which collectively garnered 14%, could also be counted as pro-Ukrainian. Together, these two factions make up just over a quarter of the votes, clearly insufficient to back Macron’s ambitious agenda for European security autonomy. Unless the British populace undergoes a sudden maturation process in the span of a few weeks and demonstrates a more responsible stance in the early elections. However, there’s certainly no harm in dreaming.
Meanwhile, the antagonistic far-left secured 10.1% of the votes. In anticipation of the upcoming elections, the leader of the Unsubdued France (La France Insoumise), Jean-Luc Mélenchon, swiftly organised a massive rally in Paris on Monday night. He is eyeing the position of prime minister from July onwards and while his chances of attaining this goal are way slimmer compared to Bardella’s, the unpredictable nature of the ‘Republican Front’ principle keeps the situation full of surprises.
The early parliamentary elections, which Macron has embarked upon, are a pitfall of his own making dating back to 2016 when he positioned himself as “neither right nor left.” By forming his political force, Forward, Republic! (La République En Marche!) he effectively marginalised the socialists and republicans, thereby undermining the traditional moderate parliamentary parties. Consequently, voters began to coalesce around radicals – both far-left and far-right. Both factions have been known for their heavy pro-Russian sympathies prior to February 2022. What does the prospect of an increase in radical factions in the National Assembly mean for Ukraine if Macron’s hopes for a ‘Republican Front’ do not materialise?
First and foremost, the French president will emerge from this experiment weakened. Depending on who assumes the role of the new prime minister and who gets appointed as the defence minister, the delivery of French Mirages may, unfortunately, face delays if not swallowed by murky uncertainty. The stakes in this risky game are incredibly high, not just for the French but also for Ukraine and the entirety of Europe.
