“Neutrality would suit Slovakia,” Prime Minister Robert Fico declared just two days ago—sending ripples through the Western world. The idea that Slovakia might exit NATO is now making headlines, fuelling heated debate on political talk shows and in the press. With the NATO summit in The Hague just days away, Fico’s remarks landed like a provocation. “It’s absolutely absurd to spend nearly a fifth of the entire budget on defence—we simply can’t afford it,” he posted on Facebook.
“Bratislava joined the North Atlantic Alliance—and the European Union—in 2004. Since 2022, it has spent 2% of its GDP on defence, as required by NATO,” noted the French right-leaning daily Le Figaro. “The nationalist prime minister has cut off all military aid to neighbouring Ukraine and pushed for peace talks, all while maintaining close ties with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Though he’s long been a vocal critic of Brussels, this is the first time he’s openly questioned Slovakia’s place in NATO.”
Fico promised to “consult” the Slovak people, but gave no details on how or when that might happen. President Peter Pellegrini was quick to disagree. “Neutrality would cost us far more than NATO membership,” he said. Later, he elaborated: “Neutrality means you’re outside the major international institutions, and that means guaranteeing your own security. In that case, it might not be 3.5% for defence—it could be seven, eight, even ten. And we wouldn’t be able to handle that.”
Fico’s comments also drew criticism from Slovakia’s interior minister, Matúš Šutaj Eštok. “We’re building new schools, roads, renovating playgrounds. Our NATO membership gives us the security that makes this possible,” he said. Michal Šimečka, leader of the largest opposition party, Progressive Slovakia, called Fico’s talk of neutrality “scandalous.” “I asked the prime minister what he meant, but got no answer. In my view, this position is a threat to Slovakia’s security,” Šimečka added. Other opposition parties have also pushed back against the idea of leaving NATO. Which makes it unlikely Bratislava will exit the alliance any time soon.
So why is Fico making such provocative statements?
“Fico is trying to appeal to a portion of his electorate—about 25% of Slovaks—who are deeply influenced by Russian propaganda. But the majority of Slovaks don’t support a pro-Russian position,” said Robert Ondrejcsák, former Slovak deputy defence minister, in an interview with Visegrad/Insight. “In fact, Slovakia is one of the most pro-European countries in Central Europe… Strategically, though, the current government is acting in Russia’s interests. It’s undermining European and transatlantic unity on Russia and Ukraine—an approach that’s both damaging and hypocritical. While Mr Fico has officially ended state military aid to Ukraine, Slovakia’s private sector continues to be a major supplier—particularly of artillery shells. Since the war began, Slovak shell production has increased tenfold. The gap between what’s being said and what’s actually happening is striking.”
Fico’s pro-Moscow stance has brought a chill to diplomatic relations: no major Western leaders, or even heads of state from neighbouring Poland or the Czech Republic, have visited Bratislava officially. In the past, Fico vowed to block Ukraine from joining NATO. He regularly repeats the Kremlin’s doomsday warning that Ukraine’s membership would trigger World War III, and often shifts the blame for the full-scale war onto the West, claiming it “provoked” Russia.
Fico’s position shouldn’t be underestimated. Even with the backing of just a quarter of Slovak voters, he’s managed to become prime minister for a third time. His presence at Moscow’s 9 May parade sent a clear message. Fico’s ties to the Kremlin stretch back to the Soviet era, when he was a “young and promising” member of the Czechoslovak Communist Party. In 1999, he broke away from the Party of the Democratic Left (SDL), the Communist successor, to launch his own political force, Smer–Social Democracy (Smer-SD). He has even gone so far as to say he wouldn’t allow Vladimir Putin to be arrested in Bratislava if the Russian president ever came to Slovakia. As Slovak sociologist Michal Vašečka puts it, “Fico’s relationship with Russia is historically rooted”—a throwback to the old slogan “Forever with the Soviet Union.” He seems genuinely inspired by Putin’s brand of authoritarianism.
Tensions are already running high ahead of the NATO summit in The Hague on 24–25 June. Slovak President Peter Pellegrini has pledged his country will “act responsibly,” but debate over how much member states should be spending on defence is already well underway. Back in April, Fico floated the idea of a national referendum on raising Slovakia’s defence budget. Another staunch Kremlin ally, Viktor Orbán, has long voiced opposition to increasing military spending. NATO’s unity is under real pressure—and it’s not at all clear the alliance is ready for what comes next. One thing is certain: more shocks are coming.
