Voters in Denmark headed to the polls on March 24 for snap parliamentary elections, called by Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen in February several months ahead of schedule. The move was widely seen as an attempt to capitalise on her decisive image during a standoff with U.S. President Donald Trump over the future of Greenland, as she seeks a third term in office.
Support for Frederiksen has slipped during her second term amid a rise in the cost of living, which — along with pensions and a possible property tax — has become a central issue in the campaign. The centre-left Social Democrat is also known for her strong backing of Ukraine and a hard line on migration.
Facing pressure from the right and warning of a potential increase in migration linked to the war with Iran, Frederiksen this month proposed measures including a possible “emergency brake” on asylum applications and tighter controls on people without legal residence. Her government has already presented a plan to deport foreign nationals sentenced to at least one year in prison for serious crimes.
Denmark’s unicameral parliament has 179 seats, including 175 from mainland Denmark and two each from Greenland and the Faroe Islands. No single party is expected to win a majority, according to the Associated Press. The country’s proportional representation system typically produces coalition governments, often bringing together parties from either the left or right after weeks of negotiations.
Frederiksen’s current three-party government, formed in 2022, was the first in decades to bypass traditional left-wing allies and instead reach an agreement with rivals — the liberal Venstre party and the Moderates.
Two centre-right challengers are seeking to unseat Frederiksen. One is Defence Minister Troels Lund Poulsen of Venstre, a party that has led several previous governments and is part of the current coalition. The other is Alex Vanopslagh of the opposition Liberal Alliance, who has campaigned on lower taxes, reduced bureaucracy and lifting Denmark’s reluctance to use nuclear energy. His prospects, however, may be dented by a recent admission of cocaine use while serving as party leader.
Denmark election: who’s set to win?
If opinion polls hold, Mette Frederiksen is set to stay in power — though her party could be heading for its weakest result in more than a century. It is projected to take 21% of the vote and 38 seats, down from 50 in 2022.
A recent Megafon poll puts the “red bloc” — a group of left-leaning parties including Frederiksen’s Social Democrats — slightly ahead on 86 seats, just shy of the 90 needed for a majority. Under Denmark’s system, however, a government does not need an outright majority to take office, as long as there is no majority against it.
The right-wing “blue bloc” is expected to win 78 seats. That figure could climb to 89 if the Moderates, led by Foreign Minister Lars Løkke Rasmussen, side with them — a move that could make the party a key player in forming the next government.
Denmark’s electoral system has a relatively low threshold for parliamentary representation, set at 2%, allowing smaller parties to enter parliament and potentially wield outsized influence, including groups such as the Denmark Democrats and the Alternative. The four seats allocated to Greenland and the Faroe Islands could also prove decisive.
Frederiksen has signalled flexibility ahead of the vote, keeping options open for post-election talks with both centrist and left-leaning parties. The final shape of any coalition, however, will depend less on political preferences than on the election outcome and the balance of power in parliament.
