Even before launching its full-scale war, Russia was already squeezing the Black Sea. Under the guise of naval drills, it restricted export routes not only for Ukraine, but also for Romania and Bulgaria — turning routine military exercises into a tool of economic pressure. For Kyiv, the stakes could hardly be higher: roughly two-thirds of Ukraine’s exports move by sea. Today, after a string of successful operations by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Russian warships have been pushed out of parts of the Black Sea.
But the story doesn’t end there. The Black Sea — and the Danube — remain battlefields for Moscow, says George Scutaru, head of the New Strategy Center. He made the remarks during a discussion titled “Grain Drain: The Global Impact of the Food Warfare in the Black Sea” at the Munich Security Conference.
He continued:
“For now, there are no Russian ships in the western Black Sea, thanks to Ukraine’s highly effective asymmetric strategy. But I have no doubt that the very day after a peace deal is signed, Russian vessels will return.”
Take one example. Even before the invasion — and during the first year of the full-scale war — Russia routinely sealed off vast stretches of the Black Sea under the pretext of naval drills, effectively curbing freedom of navigation. Between June and August 2019, Moscow closed off a quarter of the Black Sea’s surface area, citing snap exercises. The restricted zones fell within the Romanian and Bulgarian exclusive economic zones. Russian ships were deployed there for one reason: to disrupt commercial shipping. That is the reality of the Black Sea.
The Black Sea is a battlefield — and so is the Danube.”
