The Ukrainian Week/Tyzhden, in collaboration with the Foreign Policy Council ‘Ukrainian Prism,’ presents an in-depth overview of Russia’s ongoing aggression against Ukraine and its broader impact on foreign relations, including Russia’s ties to the international community, Europe, the Middle East, Asia, and beyond, through the weekly #aggressoranalysis.
This week’s highlights: Growing Beijing-Moscow ties, Shoigu’s North Korea visit, and Ukraine’s opportunity in India’s mediation offer
- Sergei Shoigu’s visit to North Korea and meeting with Kim Jong Un. Russian Security Council Secretary Sergei Shoigu has paid another official visit to North Korea, where he met with the country’s leader, Kim Jong Un. According to Russian state media, the trip aimed to discuss the implementation of agreements made during Kim’s recent visit to Russia. Notably, Russian sources also reported that Shoigu personally delivered a message from Putin to the North Korean leader, though no details were disclosed.
- It is worth noting that since the Kremlin began active negotiations with the Trump administration, Russia has significantly stepped up its engagement with allies that directly or indirectly support its war efforts. In this context, it is hardly surprising that talks with North Korea have also intensified. It is almost certain that the discussions touched on the progress of Russia’s dialogue with the United States. The fact that Shoigu was once again chosen for the visit highlights the significance of the matters at hand, likely including further military cooperation.
- Shoigu has become one of North Korea’s key contacts in this regard. Following his last visit to Pyongyang in September 2024, North Korean troops joined the fighting against Ukrainian forces. While the exact details remain unclear, it is evident that Pyongyang is receiving some form of military technology or equipment from the Kremlin in return. Shoigu’s visit was therefore almost certainly aimed at furthering these discussions.
- FSB director in Beijing: China remains wary of Moscow-Washington rapprochement. Much like with North Korea, Russia continues to maintain frequent and ongoing contact with China. This dialogue unfolds across multiple levels, from security agencies to diplomatic institutions. Recently, it was revealed that FSB director Alexander Bortnikov made an unannounced trip to Beijing, where he met with China’s Minister of Public Security, Wang Xiaohong—effectively the country’s top police official. Officially, the meeting focused on bilateral cooperation, but it’s worth noting that Bortnikov rarely makes such visits.
- At the same time, Russian state-controlled media reported that Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi is considering a visit to Moscow in April, supposedly in preparation for the Chinese leader’s trip to Russia to mark Victory Day on 9 May. However, while Moscow’s engagement with North Korea has progressed smoothly, its dealings with Beijing appear far less certain.
- It is important to recall that immediately after the official start of US-Russia negotiations in Riyadh on 18 February, there was a noticeable surge in contacts between Beijing and the Russian government. Just days after the first consultations, Putin held a phone conversation with Xi Jinping, followed by a meeting between Wang Yi and Lavrov at the G20 summit. In this context, China has actively pushed for potential peace talks, frequently promoting its own platform, the “Friends of Peace,” while also insisting on European participation—an approach that directly contradicts Russia’s position.
- This steady increase in high-level engagements between Russia and China further underscores Beijing’s deep concern over a possible rapprochement between Moscow and the Trump administration.
- Indian Prime Minister’s proposal to mediate peace talks: potential Russian response and opportunities for Ukraine. Amid renewed US-Russia contacts and a broader revival of discussions on peace negotiations, another country has stepped up its involvement—India. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has made several statements on the war and potential peace talks, declaring that India is ready to act as a mediator between Ukraine and Russia. This is particularly noteworthy, as India has not previously sought such a role beyond its usual position as a neutral conduit of information between the sides.
- Modi’s statement puts the Kremlin in a difficult position. Back in autumn 2024, Putin personally named India, China, and Brazil as countries he considered suitable mediators in peace talks. However, following Trump’s election victory and the start of Russian-American consultations, Moscow’s stance has shifted dramatically. Russia has recently declared that it no longer requires mediators, aligning with the Kremlin’s broader strategy of strengthening ties with Washington while keeping peace negotiations separate from its wider engagement with the US. In this context, India’s initiative directly challenges Moscow’s position. The Kremlin now faces a dilemma: either ignore Modi’s proposal or reject it outright—an option that seems unlikely. As a result, Ukraine stands to benefit by publicly welcoming Modi’s offer, thereby putting Moscow in an uncomfortable position.
