The Ukrainian Week/Tyzhden, in collaboration with the Foreign Policy Council ‘Ukrainian Prism,’ presents an in-depth overview of Russia’s ongoing aggression against Ukraine and its broader impact on foreign relations, including Russia’s ties to the international community, Europe, the Middle East, Asia, and beyond, through the weekly #aggressoranalysis.
This week’s highlights: Moscow aims to strain Ukraine-Kazakhstan ties and ease Beijing’s concerns over U.S.-Russia talks
- Russia is trying to worsen Ukrainian-Kazakh relations with the factor of recent UAV attacks. The incident that sparked the Kremlin’s efforts to strain relations between Ukraine and Kazakhstan was a UAV attack on Russia’s largest oil pumping station within the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC)—the Kropotkinskaya facility, which Kazakhstan also uses to transport its oil. Following the attack, Kazakh media, citing the country’s Foreign Ministry, reported that Astana aimed to resolve the issue diplomatically to prevent similar incidents in the future. Meanwhile, Kazakhstan’s Energy Ministry confirmed that the strike had not disrupted its oil exports.
- Russia wasted no time in trying to exploit the situation to its advantage. Despite reassurances from Kazakh officials, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak claimed that oil flow through the pipeline had dropped by 30-40% and suggested it would take months to repair the damage. Almost immediately after the attack, Russian diplomats began stoking fears. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov framed the strike as a direct attack on Kazakhstan’s energy infrastructure by Ukraine.
- But the Kremlin’s response went beyond rhetoric. At a government meeting, Vladimir Putin insisted that Kazakhstan, as a shareholder in the Caspian Pipeline Consortium, should supply equipment for repairs—despite the fact that sanctions prevent Astana from doing so. Rather than addressing the issue itself, Moscow has opted to pile pressure on Kazakhstan, putting it in a difficult position. The underlying message is clear: if Astana cannot assist with repairs, it will either have to defy sanctions or pressure Ukraine into halting further strikes. The Kremlin’s intent is unmistakable—driving a wedge between Kyiv and Astana.
- China is stepping up engagement with Russia right after Moscow’s talks with Washington in Saudi Arabia. No sooner had the United States held its first official meeting with Russian representatives in Saudi Arabia than Beijing and Moscow ramped up their own diplomatic exchanges. While China publicly claims to support efforts to “settle” the Russian war against Ukraine—something Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi reiterated at the G20 summit—the timing suggests deeper concerns in Beijing. The flurry of activity may signal fears that Moscow, under pressure from Washington, could make concessions affecting its economic and military ties with China.
- Within days, a series of engagements were announced. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Vladimir Putin was eager to speak with Xi Jinping. Soon after, it emerged that Wang Yi was planning a visit to Russia—news that broke almost immediately after his meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. Another likely motivation for Beijing’s renewed activism is its interest in shaping any future peace process. Notably, China has been putting more effort into its “Friends for Peace” platform, a move that coincided with Donald Trump’s growing engagement in negotiations. The platform was highlighted once again at the Munich Security Conference.
- Beijing has been increasingly vocal about its willingness to “play a constructive role” in peacemaking. This latest diplomatic push suggests China is keen to carve out a greater role in the process. For Ukraine, this shift presents an opportunity to deepen its own engagement with China on peace negotiations, potentially strengthening Kyiv’s hand in future talks.
