On 1 January, Poland officially assumed the presidency of the Council of the European Union from Hungary. The timing of its leadership coincides not only with the new European Commission’s start but also with the third anniversary of the full-scale war in Ukraine, Donald Trump’s inauguration, and Poland’s forthcoming national elections. What should we anticipate from this presidency, and which issues will dominate Poland’s agenda?
Faced with escalating geopolitical tensions and the urgent need to reinforce its defence capabilities, Poland’s presidency is poised to prioritize security. Key priorities will include supporting defence infrastructure like the Eastern Shield and the Baltic Defence Line, strengthening ties with NATO, and building closer relationships with non-EU allies such as the United States, the United Kingdom, and South Korea.
Poland also aims to steer the EU’s response to hybrid threats, particularly the weaponisation of migration, while tackling the ongoing challenges facing the Schengen Zone.
“We will focus on enhancing the EU and member states’ capacities in civil protection, disaster resilience, rescue operations, and humanitarian aid. We will also confront issues related to combating international organised crime, terrorism, and radicalisation, particularly in the context of internal security threats arising from Russia’s aggression against Ukraine,” the country’s priorities state.
Tusk’s personal challenge
As Polish President Andrzej Duda’s term nears its conclusion, the forthcoming elections—likely in May—are expected to shape Poland’s approach to presiding over the EU Council. EU insiders have already observed that Poland is treading carefully, steering clear of controversial issues on the European Union’s agenda, such as the proposed target of reducing carbon emissions by 2040.
While the role of the EU Council president is largely ceremonial, symbolism carries weight, as The Guardian notes. “The presidency’s logo—a Polish flag intertwined with the letters ‘E’ and ‘U’—symbolises Poland’s return to the European mainstream. Tusk’s government, which has pledged to prioritise security, provides a sharp contrast to the contentious diplomacy of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán during his country’s presidency,” the publication observes.
Tusk is expected to play a central role during Poland’s EU presidency, with polls showing his centrist Civic Coalition ahead of the ruling Law and Justice party. This has raised concerns that Poland may put national interests above broader European priorities, particularly in areas like migration, trade, energy, and climate policy.
However, Warsaw has made it clear that it intends to act as a fair and effective chair. “Elections, including the presidential race in Poland, are a natural part of democracy and will not impact our work in Brussels,” Polish Minister for European Affairs Adam Szłapka told Politico.
Dariusz Materniak, a Polish expert on international affairs and head of the Poland-Ukraine Research Centre, believes the risks are minimal. “The 2025 elections in Poland are presidential. While the president holds certain powers in foreign policy, the majority of foreign affairs are managed by the government and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. This is especially true for matters concerning the European Union. In meetings involving heads of state and government, such as the European Council or the Council of the European Union, Poland is represented by the prime minister or foreign minister,” Dariusz Materniak explained to The Ukrainian Week.
He also noted that Poland follows an informal convention, with the government and prime minister handling EU policy, while the president focuses on transatlantic relations, particularly with the United States.
“Therefore, I don’t foresee any significant complications arising from Poland’s EU presidency. Donald Tusk’s role will be confined to fulfilling the standard responsibilities of a head of government in such a context. I don’t believe his involvement in the presidential campaign will have a noticeable impact,” Materniak concluded.
What’s next for Ukraine?
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has expressed hope that Poland’s presidency of the EU Council, followed by Denmark’s in 2025, will be a turning point for Ukraine’s European aspirations. “We need to join the European Union. Next year, we must leave no stone unturned in the negotiation process and in strengthening our relations with EU partners,” he said.
Meanwhile, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Heorhii Tykhyi noted that Poland’s presidency could play a pivotal role in advancing Ukraine’s EU accession, particularly by opening the first negotiation clusters early in 2025. It could also raise the cost of the war for Russia by introducing new sanctions, including measures targeting the aggressor state’s shadow fleet or the confiscation of assets for repurposing.
Western media have already reported on some of the details. Finance Minister Andrzej Domański confirmed that Poland will push for additional sanctions against Russia, including a 16th package focused on the illicit trade of Russian oil. According to the German publication Die Welt, this package is expected to be implemented on 24 February, marking the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Informed EU diplomats indicate that the sanctions package aims to send a “clear signal” to Moscow, targeting sectors of the Russian economy that have so far either been left untouched or insufficiently addressed. It will also impose additional sanctions on individuals and organisations identified as “propagandists of the Russian regime” or those responsible for undermining Ukraine’s territorial integrity.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has further stated that peace negotiations over the war in Ukraine could begin as soon as this winter, emphasising that Poland’s EU presidency is ready to play a leading role in these discussions.
Dariusz Materniak, an expert on Polish foreign policy, explains that supporting Ukraine — and more broadly, the eastern dimension of Poland’s foreign policy and, by extension, the EU’s — will be a key focus. “This direction is currently Poland’s top priority in terms of our security interests. It’s not just about Ukraine; issues related to Belarus, the presidential elections there, and the situation in Georgia are also crucial. But it is Ukraine and the ongoing war that will remain, for the foreseeable future, the greatest challenge for Poland, particularly given the ambiguous stance towards Russia adopted by countries like Hungary and Slovakia,” he explained in a comment to The Ukrainian Week.
Dariusz Materniak anticipates that Poland’s presidency will bring forward initiatives to support Ukraine in areas such as economics, diplomacy, cybersecurity, and potentially even in matters related to arms supplies (though NATO mechanisms remain the primary avenue for this type of support).
“This will create an opportunity for greater mobilisation of EU member states in support of Ukraine,” Materniak explains. “While the presidency does not grant additional powers to member states, it provides greater leverage to influence the discussions at the European Union forum.”
