Anastasia Krupka The Ukrainian Week global affairs analyst

Georgian analyst Gela Vasadze: “Change the government, and it’s good. If not, Georgia remains in Russia’s orbit”

2 December 2024, 14:09

On the night of November 29, Georgian security forces used tear gas and water cannons to disperse thousands of demonstrators in Tbilisi. The protests were sparked by the government’s refusal to enter talks about joining the European Union. Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze, from the pro-Russian “Georgian Dream” party, announced that the country would abandon this agenda until at least 2028—effectively for the duration of the current government’s fourth term.

Pro-European President Salome Zurabishvili, however, urged citizens to resist the government’s decision. “This country is returning to Russia, from which we barely escaped,” she declared.

Later, Zurabishvili joined the protesters outside Parliament, declaring, “The resistance has begun, and it will not end until new elections are called,” according to Politico. She then addressed the security forces, tapping their shields, and asked, “Do you serve Russia or Georgia? Who have you sworn allegiance to?”

The Prime Minister’s rejection of Georgia’s EU membership application followed a harsh resolution by the European Parliament on Thursday, which condemned the country’s recent parliamentary elections as neither “free nor fair” and called for new elections under international supervision. Earlier, in October, Brussels had suspended Georgia’s EU accession process, citing the country’s “step backward” on key reforms.

What does Georgia’s PM rejecting a pro-European course mean?

Gela Vasadze, head of regional programs at the Georgian Strategic Analysis Center (GSAC) and a political scientist, believes the Georgian government has intentionally chosen to publicly sever ties with its Western partners, using the European Parliament’s decision as a convenient excuse for a broader geopolitical shift.

“For Georgia, this signals that the government no longer wants us to adopt a European system,” he explains. “It doesn’t want to meet EU demands on issues like the judiciary, electoral reforms, and political governance. To keep the pro-European course alive, the government will need to be changed.”

Vasadze sees plenty of potential scenarios for Georgia, though none mirror Ukraine’s Maidan. “That revolution was unique, just like the Orange Revolution, the Revolution of Dignity, the Bulldozer Revolution, and events in Belarus and Kyrgyzstan,” he says.

The political expert suggests that, among the many possible paths ahead, civil disobedience is gaining traction as a key option — a refusal to bow to the state’s authority.

“In particular, this would target the political force currently trying to reshape Georgia in its image. There are plenty of scenarios to consider. If the government can be changed, that would be a positive step. But if not, Georgia will have to stay within the orbit of the modern-day Russian empire for as long as it lasts,” the expert tells The Ukrainian Week.

At the same time, according to the Georgian expert, the events in Georgia mean nothing for Ukraine’s pro-European course. “What matters is that Georgia’s shift into Russia’s political orbit is quite negative for Ukraine because, in that case, Russia strengthens its ecosystem, and thus its capabilities for war with Ukraine. It’s disgusting. But as for Ukraine’s pro-European course, I believe it entirely depends on Ukrainians,” emphasises Gela Vasadze in his comments to The Ukrainian Week.

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