Russian aggression at sea has unfolded into a profound disaster for the occupation forces. What technologies have allowed Ukrainian developers to push back the supposedly invincible fleet and drive it deep into the Black Sea’s eastern shores?
Defeating Russia’s Black Sea Fleet
At the outset of the full-scale invasion, Russia maintained undisputed dominance in the Black and Azov Seas. Ukrainian forces found themselves outmatched by the Russian Black Sea Fleet at a staggering ratio of approximately 12 to 1. Despite the symbolic destruction of the flagship Moskva cruiser, Ukraine struggled to counter the enemy’s aggression against grain and other commercial shipments, leading to significant financial losses amounting to billions.
However, by late 2023, the dynamics had shifted dramatically. Most of the surviving Russian vessels were evacuated from Crimea to the remote port of Novorossiysk, allowing grain shipments to resume. What accounted for this transformation?
In July 2022, the Security Service of Ukraine conducted the first tests of unmanned surface vehicles (USVs). The initial models were built on jet ski platforms and equipped with FAB-100 or FAB-250 bombs. The first attempt to strike an enemy vessel using a USV took place on September 17, 2022, when a Ukrainian drone made an unsuccessful bid to damage the frigate Admiral Makarov.
However, in the ensuing months, we achieved a series of successful strikes, notably inflicting damage on the large landing ship Cesar Kunikov, the corvette Sergey Kotov, and the small missile vessels Samum, Askold, and Cyclone. Additionally, we executed an attack on the Crimean Bridge on August 4, 2023.
According to the research centre DataDriven, the simultaneous presence of vessels from the Black Sea Fleet in open waters has plummeted from 40-50 to a mere 0-4 per day. The introduction of unmanned surface vehicles (USVs) has enabled Ukraine to expand its control zone from approximately 25 km—limited by the range of artillery and MLRS—to an impressive 750 km. The relocation of remaining Russian ships to Novorossiysk has effectively curtailed the operational capabilities of the Black Sea Fleet, restricting it primarily to the launch of sea-based Kalibr missiles. Vice Admiral Oleksiy Neizhpapa, the commander of the Naval Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, noted that enemy vessels have not been sighted in the northwestern part of the Black Sea, an area spanning roughly 25,000 square kilometres.
Types and functions of USVs
Currently, the majority of production capabilities for unmanned surface vehicles (USVs) are driven by the private sector. The state, serving as the sole customer for USVs, bolsters manufacturers through initiatives such as the Brave1 cluster aimed at advancing military technologies. We recently explored the nuances of Ukraine’s defence technology market in an article focused on the defence tech sector.
Media reports frequently highlight three types of marine drones: Magura V5, Sea Baby, and Mamay. However, the range of USV modifications is significantly broader, and this variety is expanding as more companies enter the fray. For example, Brave1 supports the development of the underwater drone TLK-150 Toloka, while the Magura V5 can be outfitted with an R-73 missile, enhancing its capacity to engage aerial targets.
Among foreign models, the Turkish kamikaze boat ULAQ KAMA, presented in July 2023, stands out. Manufacturers claim that the drone can be used not only for attacking enemy naval targets but also for patrolling designated water areas or conducting reconnaissance.
The maximum effectiveness of USVs is achieved through their combination with other types of weapons, such as cruise missiles. The first attack using this combination occurred on October 29, 2022, resulting in damage to the minesweeper Ivan Holubets and the frigate Admiral Makarov. Following the future de-occupation of Crimea and the restoration of full control over the waters of the Black and Azov Seas, the role of marine drones, alongside minesweepers, will shift to mine clearance.
It is worth noting that Russia is also attempting to use USVs, albeit on a small scale. In February 2023, the occupiers tried to damage an important bridge in Zatoka, Odesa Oblast, using a surface drone equipped with explosives.
Strengths and weaknesses of USVs
Analysts at DataDriven have noted that the utilisation of unmanned surface vehicles (USVs) has highlighted various strengths and weaknesses. Notably, their low visibility has often caught Russian forces by surprise, enabling Ukrainian USVs to approach unnoticed and resulting in the destruction of approximately a third of the Black Sea Fleet’s ships. Additionally, USVs exhibit impressive manoeuvrability, allowing them to maintain a high level of survivability even when under fire, although they remain vulnerable to the relatively effective operations of enemy helicopters.
Yet, unmanned surface vehicles (USVs) also have certain weaknesses. Firstly, their low speed, which can reach up to 40 knots (about 72 km/h), significantly limits their targeting capability compared to cruise missiles that can exceed speeds of 1,000 km/h. Additionally, USVs require constant updates to target coordinates; for instance, the journey from Odesa to Sevastopol takes approximately five hours, during which a target may shift position multiple times. Furthermore, continuous monitoring by a command centre is essential for adjusting coordinates; any loss of communication due to electronic warfare measures can render the drone uncontrollable and unable to engage a moving target effectively.
It is important to recognise that the strengths and weaknesses of unmanned surface vehicles (USVs) vary depending on their specific type. The ongoing development within the industry fosters diversity, which ultimately enhances the effectiveness of these drones.
The future of surface drones
The rise of unmanned surface vehicles (USVs) has dramatically reshaped the landscape of maritime warfare, much like the impact of FPV drones on land. Despite not having a conventional naval fleet, Ukraine is managing to take on a country with one of the world’s largest fleets, showcasing the transformative potential of these innovative technologies.
Looking ahead, USVs are set to broaden their horizons beyond military operations, stepping into a variety of civilian maritime roles. They could soon be escorting merchant vessels, securing extraction platforms, and conducting vital rescue missions. With their agility and versatility, these surface drones could also play a pivotal role in combating piracy.
As hostilities eventually come to an end and borders reopen, Ukraine is poised to become a leading hub for USV production and the largest exporter in this rapidly growing field. The expertise gained during this conflict may very well inspire a dramatic shift in how major powers structure their fleets, swapping out traditional large ships for expansive fleets of nimble surface drones.
