In this week’s Sunday digest, The Ukrainian Week looks into the most recent developments in Ukraine’s foreign and domestic policy, including military and financial aid, Ukraine’s mobilisation, Ukraine’s goals for 2024, as well as recent updates from an ongoing Russian military aggression against Ukraine.
Foreign policy
- Josep Borrell: “Putin will not stop”. Josep Borrell, EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, commented to The Guardian that Russia’s Vladimir Putin would not give up waging war against Ukraine, and Europe must prepare for a prolonged, high-intensity military conflict. He emphasised that the entire Europe’s existence is at stake in Ukraine. According to Borrell, it is time to fully assess the threat coming from Russia. “If we don’t mobilise all our capabilities, it will allow Putin to win the war in Ukraine,” he said. Borrell also added that the Russian president has decided to continue the war until what Russia considers a ‘final victory’, and he “will not settle” for a limited territorial grab. According to Borrell, despite Putin having “miscalculated” the power of his army, the strength of Ukrainian resistance, and the resilience of the EU and NATO, he is still ready to fight because, for him, there is “no way back”. “Russia has always been an empire; this is Russia’s constant political identity and, as a result, a threat to its neighbours—especially to us,” said Borrell.
- F-16 for Ukraine “likely before the end of 2023”. Ukraine will likely receive its first shipment of advanced F-16s in the next few days, Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte told President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in a phone call as Kyiv seeks to disrupt Russia’s air superiority over Ukrainian skies amid continued battles on December 23 in the east and south of the country. Rutte confirmed this in his X (former Twitter) post on December 22. According to ISW, while Rutte did not specify the timeline for F-16 delivery, a recent Estonian Ministry of Defense strategy document stated that the Netherlands, Denmark, Norway, and Belgium have already committed to transfering F-16s to Ukraine “before the end of 2023”.
- Poland’s FM visit to Kyiv. On the morning of December 22, Radosław Sikorski, Poland’s new Minister of Foreign Affairs, arrived in Kyiv on his first trip abroad since taking office. Sikorski stated that Ukraine’s and Poland’s common goal is for Russia to suffer defeat in the war. “This is Russia’s last colonial war. Ukraine must win, and Russia must lose. This is what we think, regardless of who is in power in Poland,” the minister said. Reportedly, the talks Sikorski held in Kyiv focused on further financial and military support for Ukraine, the prospects of the country’s membership in the European Union and NATO, and opportunities to strengthen Polish-Ukrainian cooperation in the reconstruction of Ukraine.
- Biden signs off $300 million to Ukraine, much lower than the initial $61 billion proposal. On December 23, President Joe Biden signed the National Defense Authorization Act authorising an annual military spending of $886 billion and includes policies to support Ukraine and counter China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific region. The recently adopted bill in the United States Senate, with a strong bipartisan majority of 87 to 13, and in the House of Representatives, with a vote of 310 to 118, extends aid to Ukraine – the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative, authorising $300 million in the fiscal year ending in September 2024. However, the amount is significantly lower than the initial $61 billion that Biden had requested from Congress to help Kyiv repel a Russian invasion. Earlier, Republicans had refused to approve assistance for Ukraine unless Democrats agreed to toughen immigration laws.
- 1,5 billion to Ukraine from the European Commission. On December 21, the European Commission disbursed 1,5 billion euros to Ukraine as part of the macro-financial assistance package for 2023, as announced by Ursula von der Leyen, the head of the European Commission, on social media.” We must continue to provide Ukraine with the necessary support for recovery, reconstruction, and reform. We stand with our neighbour, friend, and those who aspire to be a member of the EU.” This year, Ukraine is set to receive a total of 18 billion euros in Macro-Financial Assistance (MFA) from the EU, distributed across ten tranches.
- Ukraine-NATO Council meeting in January 2024. In Brussels on January 17-18, the Military Committee of NATO, the organisation’s highest military body, will hold a meeting, including the first meeting of the Ukraine-NATO Council in the format of chiefs of defence. Admiral Rob Bauer, Chairman of the NATO Military Committee, will reportedly preside over a meeting attended by the highest military officials from NATO member states and Sweden. The meeting will also include General Christopher Cavoli, Supreme Allied Commander Europe, and General Philippe Lavigne, Supreme Allied Commander Transformation.
Domestic issues
- Zelensky’s year-end conference. Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, held the year-end press conference for 2023. The president answered questions about mobilisation, the return of Ukrainian prisoners of war, NATO accession, his relationship with the Ukraine Armed Forces Chief of the General Staff Valeriy Zaluzhny, Western military assistance, and domestic drone production. Speaking about mobilisation, Zelensky noted that Valeriy Zaluzhny proposed mobilising up to 400-500 thousand people for counteroffensive operations, but he did not approve it. He also rejected the idea of Ukraine’s potential defeat by Russia and dismissed speculations about the unsuccessful counteroffensive in 2023. The president also announced that Ukraine’s war strategy and goals remain the same, focusing on freeing the entire country from the Russian occupation.
- Zaluzhny office was “bugged”. A listening device was found in the office of Valeriy Zaluzhny, Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The incident was initially reported by the media on December 18 and later confirmed by the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), which initiated a criminal case after the incident. Ukraine’s security services said that the device was found on December 17 in one of the offices where Zaluzhny was supposed to be working. Zaluzhny commented that he “has several offices where he works. This happened in one of them […]. We checked the room and found the device”, he said, insisting that he “hasn’t been in the premises for a while”. He also said that the listening devices were not only found in the office where he worked but didn’t specify whether more devices were found on the military premises.
- Polish border protests temporarily stop. The Polish Ministry of Agriculture announced that on December 24, farmers who have been protesting at the border near the “Medyka” checkpoint will suspend their strike. The decision was made after today’s meeting between the protesters and Czesław Siekierski, Poland’s Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development. According to Polish RMF FM, Roman Kondrow, one of the leaders of the protesting farmers, said that the protest in Medyka may be resumed on January 2 or 3, 2024.
- Ukraine’s mobilisation. The German newspaper Die Welt reported that Rustem Umerov, Ukraine’s Defence Minister, allegedly said in a conversation with them that he intends to draft Ukrainian men aged 25 to 60 living abroad. Die Welt claimed that Ukrainian men would be asked to report to the recruitment offices of the Armed Forces, and those who do not comply will face “sanctions”. Later, however, Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense said it had no intention to conscript Ukrainian men living abroad. The ministry accused the journalists of “shifting the focus” and misquoting Umerov. In a comment to the Ukrainian media outlet Hromadske, the spokesperson for the Ministry of Defence, Illarion Pavliuk, noted that there is currently no existing legal framework to punish those citizens living outside of Ukraine. Mykhailo Fedorov, Ukraine’s Vice Prime Minister for Innovation and Technology Development – Minister for Digital Transformation of Ukraine, denied media reports that Ukrainian men would receive conscription notices through the government service app Diia. Later, Lauri Läänemets, Estonia’s Minister of Internal Affairs of Estonia, said that if necessary, his country is ready to negotiate a legal framework to assist Ukraine in mobilizing its citizens.
- Ukraine adopted a medical cannabis bill. Ukraine’s Parliament has approved the first reading of a draft bill to legalise medical cannabis. The bill regulates the use of cannabis in medical, industrial, and scientific activities only. It simplifies the use of cannabis-based medicines and instructs the government to expand the list of medications. The Ministry of Health called the adoption of this law a “historic decision” and thanked the deputies on behalf of the medical community.
- Ukrainian movie “20 Days in Mariupol”. The Ukrainian film “20 Days in Mariupol” has been included in two official shortlists of the American Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. The film will be considered for nomination in the categories of “Best Documentary Feature” and “Best International Feature Film” at the upcoming 96th Academy Awards. “”20 Days in Mariupol” is a documentary directed by Mstyslav Chernov. Chernov is a war correspondent who, along with his colleague Evgen Maloletka, was among the last civilian journalists remaining in Russian-occupied Mariupol in March 2022. The documentary provides an account of their experiences during the 20 days they spent in the city under Russian siege.
Russian invasion of Ukraine
- Russia has launched 7,400 missiles and 3,700 Shahed drones since 2022. Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, Russia has launched approximately 7,400 missiles and 3,700 Shahed strike drones against Ukraine. Yuriy Ihnat, a spokesman for the Air Force, said that Ukrainian Air Defence Forces have intercepted around 1,600 missiles and 2,900 drones. These numbers include all types of missiles, with approximately one-third being S-300 missiles and around 900 being ballistic Iskanders. Ihnat added that to effectively counter the missile threat, Ukraine needs modern air defense systems like Patriot and Iris-T to replace the outdated Soviet systems. Ihnat also revealed that Russian forces had launched 48 hypersonic aeroballistic X-47M2 Kinzhal missiles against Ukraine since the start of the full-scale invasion. Also, according to the Air Force, since September 2022, Russia has launched 3700 Shahed drones against Ukraine; 2900 of them were shot down. The spokesperson for the Air Force said that currently, Ukraine has approximately an 85% interception success rate, reaching 90% and sometimes even 100%.
- Russians attack de-occupied Kherson. On the evening of December 23, Russian forces shelled critical infrastructure in Kherson, causing damage to the gas network and also causing harm to a medical facility. During the day on December 21, the Russian occupation forces shelled the territory of the Kherson region 117 times. As a result of enemy attacks, one person was killed, and two others were injured. On the night of December 22, Russians also attacked the Mykolaiv and Zaporizhzhia regions, causing significant destruction. Kherson Regional Prosecutor’s Office released a statement saying that Russian forces launched another massive missile attack on Kherson on December 24, resulting in casualties and injuries.
- Another attack of Russian Shaheds on Kyiv. On the night of December 22, Russian forces conducted a series of Shahed-136/131 drone strikes against several cities in Ukraine, including the capital, Kyiv. Ukrainian military officials reported that Russian forces launched Shahed drones from Balaklava, in occupied Crimea, as well as from Primorsko-Akhtarsk in Russia. Also, on Thursday, December 22, a Russian drone hit a residential building in Kyiv, injuring at least two people, authorities said, in a rare breach of the Ukrainian capital’s air defences.
- ISW: Russia is using chemical weapons against the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The Institute for the Study of War reports that Russia’s Black Sea Fleet’s 810th Naval Infantry Brigade is deliberately using chemical weapons against Ukrainian forces in violation of the Chemical Weapons Convention, to which Russia is a party. According to ISW, the Brigade’s Telegram post claimed that they are using the new tactic of “dropping K-51 grenades from drones” onto Ukrainian positions to smoke Ukrainian forces out of their positions and expose them to fire from various arms. ISW reports that K-51 aerosol grenades are filled with irritant CS gas, a type of tear gas used for riot control, also known as a Riot Control Agent [RCA]. The Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) prohibits the use of RCAs as a method of warfare. Previously, ISW reported Russian forces using K-51 grenades against Ukrainian positions in the Donetsk region in November 2022.
- Ukraine downs three Russian Su-34. On December 22, Mykola Oleshchuk, Commander of Ukraine’s Air Force, reported that Ukrainian forces successfully destroyed three Russian Su-34 fighter bombers. Yuriy Ihnat, a spokesman for the Air Force, said that it was a rapid and successful operation after “Russians got arrogant, approached closer, tried to hit with guided air bombs deeper into the rear defence of our troops”, adding that “Russians made a risky move. We hope that they’ll keep doing it”. On Sunday, December 24, the spokesperson of the Ukrainian Volunteer Army ‘South and the head of the Public Council at the Odesa Regional Military Administration claimed that “in the midst of the war, Russians seem to be dealing with the possible evacuation of some of its units, primarily the Air Force, from the temporarily occupied territory of Crimea”. He also added that “naturally, today it is not an active phase, but the question of evacuation is already being raised at the highest level”.
- The New York Times: Putin wants a ‘ceasefire’ and to temporarily ‘freeze’ the war. The New York Times, citing former and current senior Russian, US, and international officials, reported that Vladimir Putin is using back channels to signal his interest in a ‘ceasefire’, despite his recent public statements that ‘Russia will continue fighting until it reaches its goals’—the New York Times reported that similar signals have been coming through backchannels since September 2023. The newspaper suggests that Putin may have different motivations for his alleged interest in a ceasefire, including the upcoming Russian presidential election in March 2024 and taking advantage of the distraction caused by the Israel-Hamas war. NYT notes that Putin might offer a temporary ceasefire, hoping that it would allow Russia to regroup and prepare for a new wave of aggression against Ukraine.
- Head of Security Service of Ukraine in an interview with Politico on Ukraine’s 2024 goals. Vasyl Malyuk, the Head of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU), outlined the main goals of the agency for the next year in an interview with Politico. While he did not disclose specific details, he promised to “bring the war as close to the Kremlin as possible”. He stated that SBU intends to increase the number of operations on the territory of Russia and Ukrainian territories temporarily occupied by Russia. Malyuk noted that details cannot be revealed, but “there will be surprises”. Malayuk added that the SBU’s next year targets include Russian military and logistical objects in Ukraine and on the territory of the Russian Federation, particularly in Crimea and the Black Sea.
