The Ukrainian Week begins a series of weekly updates, summarising top stories on Ukraine’s domestic and foreign policy, as well as economic and social issues. We will be publishing the digest every Sunday.
Foreign policy:
- On Wednesday, December 6, Republicans in the U.S. Senate blocked an emergency spending bill to provide new security assistance for Ukraine, as well as Israel and Taiwan. Republicans pressed their demands for tougher immigration controls at the U.S. border with Mexico. The vote was 49 in favour to 51 against, threatening President Biden’s push to provide new aid before the end of 2023. According to Reuters, every Senate Republican voted no, along with Senator Bernie Sanders. The bill would provide about $50 billion in new security assistance for Ukraine, and it also included funds for humanitarian and economic aid for Kyiv. On December 7, Antony Blinken, the U.S. Secretary of State, said during a briefing after a meeting with David Cameron, UK Foreign Secretary, that military assistance to Ukraine contributes to the growth of the American economy, saying that “it’s clear that 90% of the security assistance we’ve provided has actually been spent here, in the United States”. Earlier, on December 5, Janet Yellen, the U.S. Treasury Secretary, said that the U.S. would be “responsible for Ukraine’s defeat” if Congress did not pass a military aid package by the end of the year. President Joe Biden called the Congress’s failure to vote on funding “wrong,” adding that “the failure to support Ukraine is just absolutely crazy” and goes “against U.S. interests”.
- Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky has departed for Argentina to attend the inauguration of President Javier Mileim, who was elected on November 20 and received nearly 56% of the votes. Several media outlets reported that while the Ukrainian president was immediately on the guest list, there were doubts about his ability to attend the inauguration. Zelensky is expected to arrive in Buenos Aires on Sunday. Since the beginning of a full-scale Russian invasion in February 2022, this will be the first time that the President of Ukraine has visited Latin America.
- On December 8, Finnish media reported that the country’s Supreme Court refused Ukraine’s extradition request for Yan Petrovsky, a Russian ultranationalist and former commander of the neo-Nazi Rusich Group, fighting alongside Russian armed forces against Ukraine. The court cited the poor conditions in Ukrainian penitentiaries as a justification for its decision, adding that Petrovsky may face torture while in Ukrainian custody. Petrovsky is wanted in Ukraine on suspicion of committing war crimes in Ukraine’s eastern regions of Luhansk and Donetsk in 2014-2015.
- Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban reiterated his opposition to Ukraine’s membership in the EU, calling Ukraine “corrupt” a week before EU leaders are set to decide on commencing talks with Kyiv on joining the bloc. In Poland, the leader of the Civic Platform, Donald Tusk, responded that Viktor Orban’s government “openly siding with Russia” and “does not even hide it”, assuring that Poland would stand firm at the European Council.
- The Bulgarian Parliament has voted to overrule the veto imposed by the country’s President, Rumen Radev, on transferring 100 old armoured personnel carriers to Ukraine. The National Assembly of Bulgaria approved the decision on December 8. 161 deputies supported the proposal, while 55 voted against it.
- Rustem Umerov, Ukraine’s Defence Minister, stated that Ukraine would soon receive Western F-16 fighter jets. According to Umerov, Ukraine is preparing its infrastructure and technical equipment; pilots and technical crews are reportedly also being trained. Umerov also added that while Ukraine is negotiating the delivery of F-16s, the list is extensive and includes other models as well.
- Ukraine and the United States have signed a memorandum on joint weapons production and the exchange of technical data. In particular, the U.S. has provided Ukraine with a package of technical data to initiate local production of FrankenSAM projects—hybrid anti-aircraft missile complexes that are being modernised and adapted for Western missiles. There is also an agreement for the production of 155 mm calibre munitions in Ukraine. However, the implementation of this project is expected to take 2-3 years.
- On Wednesday, December 6, during the G7 summit, Japan’s Prime Minister, Fumio Kishida, announced a $4,5 billion aid package intended for Ukraine. This assistance will include $1 billion for the purchase of generators and other equipment, as well as funding for demining areas mined by Russia. $3,5 billion will go towards financing credit guarantees for loans from the World Bank to Ukraine. On December 7, Ukraine’s ambassador to Japan, Serhiy Korsunsky, said that Ukraine and Japan are also currently discussing Japan’s potential transfer of its air defence capabilities to Ukraine.
- Ukraine and Sweden are discussing the potential supply of Gripen fighter jets to Ukraine’s Armed Forces. This possibility was discussed during the meeting between Ukraine’s Defence Minister, Rustem Umerov, and the Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces of Sweden, Mikael Buden. Ukraine’s Deputy Defence Minister, Ivan Gavryliuk, said that “fruitful bilateral work regarding the transfer of Gripen aircraft is underway”. However, he also added that there are “certain issues related to NATO”, expressing hope that “‘we will soon be able to obtain these aircraft”. Meanwhile, Germany announced that it provided a new military aid package to Ukraine, including 155mm calibre shells, grenade launchers, and reconnaissance drones. Aid also includes 250 155mm calibre projectiles, the LUNA NG reconnaissance drone, 10 VECTOR reconnaissance drones, six patrol vehicles, 8 Zetros trucks, 70 MGW automatic grenade launchers, and 100 thousand military medical kits.
- On Friday, 8 December, the Council of the European Union and the European Parliament agreed on allowing the EU member states to restrict the supply of liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Russia and Belarus to protect the security interests of member states or the EU. The preliminary political agreement reportedly concerns a resolution regulating the internal market for renewable energy sources, natural gas, and hydrogen.
Domestic politics:
- Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) announced that it had liquidated Ilya Kyva, the former Member of the Ukrainian Parliament, an MP from the now-banned Russian-backed Opposition Platform- For Life (OPZZh) during a security operation on Russian territory. Ukraine’s Defence Ministry Main Intelligence Directorate confirmed Kyva’s liquidation. Kyva’s body was found in the suburban village of Suponyevo in the Odintsovo district near Moscow. Ilya Kyva, who had left for Spain before the full-scale Russian invasion, lived in Russia and appeared on Russian state-owned propaganda channels. On 24 February 2022, the day of Russia’s attack on Ukraine, Kyva, in an online appearance on Russian television, stated that Ukraine was “enslaved by the West, saturated with Nazism, and has no future”. In March 2022, the Lviv Lychakivsky District Court ordered the detention of Ilya Kiva, and he was put on an international wanted list.
- On December 8, Verkhovna Rada, the Ukrainian parliament, voted in favour of legislation enhancing the powers of the National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) and expanding the powers of the National Agency on Corruption Prevention (NAZK). At the same time, the parliament approved a bill regarding national minorities that considered expert assessments of the Council of Europe. The bills included the increase of the National Anti-Corruption Bureau (NABU) staff by 300 people, the lifting of restrictions on the National Agency on Corruption Prevention (NAZK) powers regarding property verification, and the Bill No. 10 288-1, concerning the rights of national minorities (the use of the languages of the European Union and national minorities in political advertising, private schools and universities, minority classes, media will be allowed, except for the language of the aggressor state, i.e., Russia). However, the advertisement must be translated into Ukrainian; Ukrainian language classes as the state language will be mandatory in all educational institutions, although teaching can be conducted in EU languages.
- Schemes (Skhemy), an award-winning investigative news project run by Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, reported that thousands of video surveillance cameras equipped with software from the Russian manufacturer TRASSIR/DSSL have been installed throughout Ukraine and could have been transmitting information to servers located in Russia for years. Journalists from Schemes conducted an experiment proving that video from such cameras is transmitted to servers in Moscow owned by companies with ties to the Russian FSB, the state security services, before appearing on the user’s phone or laptop. Schemes pointed out that TRASSIR software-equipped cameras have been widely purchased and installed by both state enterprises, such as Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant, Administration of Seaports, and even private businesses, including Nova Poshta mail company and Velyka Kishenia supermarkets. Ordinary Ukrainians also purchased these cameras for their homes. The use of this Russian technology in Ukraine was only restricted on 27 February 2022.
Ukraine’s economy:
- Ukraine’s Ministry of Social Policy reported that Ukraine and the World Bank agreed to initiate a new project called INSPIRE, involving funding for 29 types of social payments. The agreement was signed on December 4. The INSPIRE project will provide social payments for the most vulnerable citizens and support reforms in Ukraine’s social protection sector. INSPIRE will reportedly receive funding through a loan of $1,2 billion from the World Bank’s Targeted Fund for providing necessary credit support to Ukraine (ADVANCE Ukraine), with support from the government of Japan. The funds will be allocated to the general fund of Ukraine’s state budget. According to the announcement, the project will benefit nearly 10 million Ukrainian citizens.
- The Hungarian Road Transport Association (MKFE) has announced that starting from December 11 onwards, they will begin protesting near the Zahony-Chop border crossing, demanding the end of transport liberalisation for Ukrainian carriers. The association claims that in this way, they want to draw the European Commission’s attention to what they call “serious consequences” of the agreement between the EU, Ukraine, and Moldova. Earlier, Danylo Hetmantsev, Head of the Ukrainian Parliamentary Tax Committee, said that the blockade of the Ukrainian-Polish border by the Polish carriers had caused a loss of UAH 9,3 billion (nearly US$251 million) to Ukraine’s state budget.
- In Ukraine, there is a record-high level of electricity consumption. Ukrenergo, Ukraine’s electricity transmission system operator, called on citizens to lower consumption. On December 7, the daily peak consumption was still 4% higher than the day before. On December 8, Ukrenergo registered another hike in consumption. To avoid disconnections and support the balance in the energy system, the company has requested emergency assistance from the electricity transmission operators in Romania and Poland. On December 9, Ukraine’s Energy Ministry said that power supply cuts have not yet been applied in any of the regions, adding that due to infrastructural damage resulting from Russian shelling in the near-front zone and an increase in consumption in the energy system, there is an electricity deficit.
The Russian invasion and frontline updates:
- Ukrainian Armed Forces destroyed a Russian Su-24M bomber over Snake Island. Mykola Oleshchuk, commander of Ukraine’s Air Forces, reported that the Su-24 attempted to launch a missile-bomb strike in the southern part of the Odesa region covered by a Su-30SM fighter. The UK Ministry of Defence asserted that Russia is conducting risky strike operations in the Black Sea to demonstrate its influence and control in the region, where Snake Island has become a symbol of Ukrainian resistance. According to the UK Defence Ministry, since the summer of 2023, Russia has been continuing strike operations against Ukraine’s Snake Island despite the high risks to its military crews.
- Joint Press Centre for Ukraine’s Armed Forces Operational-Strategic Group Tavria reported that more than 40,000 Russian military personnel are concentrated in the direction of Avdiivka. According to Oleksandr Shtupun, the Joint Press Centre spokesperson, the Russian command loses 300-400 soldiers daily. He also noted that the Russians continue to actively use armoured vehicles and aviation; yesterday, it was reported that Russians dropped 40 guided aerial bombs in the Donetsk region. In its daily reporting, Tavria informed of 24 airstrikes, 56 combat clashes, and 648 artillery shelling incidents in its operational zone over the past day. Additionally, 20 Russian vehicles, including tanks and armoured vehicles, were reportedly destroyed.
- Analysts of the online war mapping resource, Deep State, informed that the Russian military is deploying equipment to Robotyne, Zaporizhzhia region. The invading forces also seem to be attempting to advance in the area near the settlement, previously liberated by the Ukrainian military. Despite the difficulties, Ukraine’s Armed Forces are advancing, overcoming the second line of fortifications of the Russian army in the direction of Melitopol. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s Ground Forces Operational Command South noted that the Russian troops are strengthening their fortifications and attempting to bring in more reserves to Ukraine’s southern frontline.
