Former and possibly future U.S. President Donald Trump is an extraordinary figure. At times, it appears that his reputation is shielded by Vibranium, as few politicians are as impervious to reputational damage as he is. In his speeches, he verbally attacked opponents, journalists, women, migrants, and people with disabilities. He was suspected of opaque financial dealings with Russians. The Stormy Daniels scandal echoed across all media.
In early January this year, the trial on fraud in a New York civil court came to a close. Prior to the commencement of the legal proceedings, Judge Arthur Engoron had already declared that Trump consistently misled banks, insurance companies, and investors by inflating the value of assets. The hearings extended over 44 days, encompassing other charges. The judge pledged to deliver the definitive verdict by month’s end, which might entail a $370 million fine, a lifelong prohibition on engaging in real estate endeavours, and a restriction on assuming roles within state institutions or overseeing private companies in the state of New York.
In addition, Donald Trump faces 91 counts of criminal violations in four cases totalling 11 million pages, under consideration in Washington, New York, Florida, and Georgia. These cases involve attempting to overturn the results of the 2020 elections, interference in the Georgia elections, document forgery, and mishandling of classified documents. Donald Trump has become the first former president in U.S. history to face criminal charges.
If found guilty, he could face years of imprisonment. Yet, this could potentially be the sole hurdle in his bid for the presidency of the United States.
What about the battle for the Republican Party nomination?
The U.S. presidential elections are scheduled for November 5, but the campaign is already in full swing. The first vote for the Republican Party candidate took place in Iowa on January 15 and in New Hampshire on January 23.
Similar voting will take place in all states and will conclude in June. However, frontrunners will be determined based on the results of Super Tuesday on March 5, when more than a dozen states will have their say. The Republican and Democratic conventions, where the party candidates will be nominated, are set to take place in July and August, respectively.
By the way, the U.S. Supreme Court, which Trump fortified with conservative judges during his presidency, did not uphold the decisions of two American states, Colorado and Maine, concerning his disqualification as a presidential candidate. Earlier, the supreme courts of these states sought to invoke the third section of the 14th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, which denies the right to hold federal offices to individuals who took part in “insurrection or rebellion,” referring to the events of January 6, 2020, when Trump’s supporters stormed the Capitol in protest against the election results.
The initial round of voting has indicated that Donald Trump is the most probable Republican nominee. He obtained 51% of the votes, which is more than the combined results of the two following candidates – Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley. Although this amounts to slightly less than 57,000 votes in a state with over two million registered voters, one-third of whom are Republicans, the “mission is accomplished.” This was enough for DeSantis and Ramaswamy, with the latter being promoted as a potential Vice President in Trump’s future administration, to suspend their campaigns and instead express their support for the frontrunner. Only Nikki Haley remains undeterred, although it is evident that she will face a challenging battle against the heavyweight of American politics.
The results of the New Hampshire vote once again showed that Donald Trump won with 54% of the votes, which is 11% more than Haley, representing more than half of the registered Republican voters in the state.
If Haley loses in South Carolina next month, where she served as governor, she will have to rely solely on the outcome of criminal cases against Trump. However, in such a scenario, Republicans might feel that the elections were “stolen” from them again, potentially leading to unrest.
For her unwavering support for aid to Ukraine and Israel, influential Republican political commentator Tucker Carlson labelled Haley as identical to Joe Biden and speculated that some Democrats are not betting on their own candidate but are planning to help Haley secure the presidential seat.
What are the main messages of Donald Trump’s campaign?
Trump has already claimed that he has been a victim of politically motivated persecution by Democrats. “My legal issues, every one of them, civil and the criminal ones, are all set up by Joe Biden … they’re doing it for election interference,” Trump said. Meanwhile, in a speech in New Hampshire, he suggested that after his victory, criminal charges might be brought up against Nikki Haley without specifying the nature of those charges. The same was implied for DeSantis, but he withdrew his candidacy. In general, the ongoing narrative consistently highlights the theme of political persecution against opponents, conveying a concerning message from the country that’s supposed to be the leader of the democratic world.
Trump pledges to stimulate economic development, lower taxes and energy costs, put a stop to the flow of illegal migrants, continue building the border wall with Mexico, and eliminate automatic citizenship rights for children of illegal immigrants. His program also includes mass deportation of illegal immigrants, a ban on entry for Muslims, imposing tariffs on all imported goods (around 10%), and the creation of “freedom cities.”
The potential president aims to simplify the procedure for dismissing government officials, which is expected to “completely destroy the deep state” – a conspiracy theory suggesting the existence of groups of officials in the U.S. government who exert significant influence on state policy despite not holding elected positions. Essentially, this refers to weakening the executive branch. The independent Department of Justice, which performs prosecutorial functions and oversees the FBI, would be the first to take the blow. Exerting control over this department would enhance the persecution of opponents.
Trump has pledged to eliminate the Department of Education, called for reduced funding for schools that demanded vaccination or mask-wearing and advocated for prayer in public schools. He supports the idea of teachers carrying firearms and promotes “patriotic education”. Schools will “teach students to love their country, not hate it as they are taught now” and foster the promotion of the concept of the “nuclear family” and “things that make men and women different and unique”.
In his foreign policy, Trump pays special attention to China, planning to compel Chinese owners to sell any holdings “that threaten America’s national security,” primarily in areas such as energy, technology, and agriculture. He has stated that he will support Israel in its conflict with Hamas. Regarding Ukraine, everyone remembers his readiness to address the issue within 24 hours. He promised to halt the “endless flow of American money to Ukraine” and turn to European allies to reimburse the U.S. for part of the expenses. It remains unclear whether recognising Russia’s occupation of territories will be part of a ceasefire agreement.
Some Republicans advocate a different narrative in support of Trump, asserting that he was the first to offer military assistance to Ukraine during his presidency and would handle Putin more effectively. They argue that, unlike Biden, he recognises that the Russian president only responds to strength and power.
In politics, Donald Trump is guided not only by national interests but also by personal grievances or sympathies. If Putin’s terms prevent Trump from presenting himself as a peacemaker against Biden, he may opt for another strategy – that of a fearless commander-in-chief who prevails through strength.
However, Trump has reiterated his intention to withdraw the U.S. from NATO, asserting that no conflict in Europe justifies the sacrifice of American lives and taxpayer money. In a more moderate approach, it entails a “fundamental review” of NATO’s purpose and mission.
Republicans who had a grasp of U.S. geopolitical interests and wielded influence over the former president during his previous term have, for the most part, severed ties with him. John Bolton, the then-national security adviser, remarked, “The damage he did in his first term was reparable. The damage in the second term would be irreparable”.
To prevent the President from unilaterally deciding to withdraw from the Alliance, Democratic Senator Tim Kaine and Republican Senator Marco Rubio have introduced a bill requiring the approval of two-thirds of the Senate or an act of Congress to make such a decision. However, if Republicans regain control of both chambers in this year’s congressional elections, and with the decrease in the share of moderate Republicans and internal party purges, there may be no hurdles in voting on proposals from the White House.
It’s essential to remember that political campaign promises are no more than art aimed at resonating with the hearts of voters, and not all of them can be fulfilled.
Who votes for Donald Trump?
There’s a notion that the primary supporter of Donald Trump is a white man with a lower education level, often a farmer or rural resident. The saying goes that to gauge someone’s support for Trump, inquire about their stance on the so-called patriarchal values. Data from the 2016 and 2020 elections indeed highlight white men as the core of his support, followed, surprisingly, by white women. Latinos, despite tough immigration rhetoric, show slightly higher support among men than women, but the majority still lean towards Democrats. African Americans, by and large, did not vote for Trump.
In the last election, 94% of Republicans supported his candidacy. Notable groups among them include white evangelicals, whites without higher education, and rural residents. His support is increasing among urban voters (from 24% to 33%) and young people up to 29 years old (from 28% to 35%).
“You can’t buy him,” explains one of his supporters, outlining their sympathy for Trump. Among other arguments are the claim of a better economy during Trump’s presidency (a rather controversial assertion) or lower prices (in the pre-pandemic times), admiration for his straightforward way of speaking – “he doesn’t lie to us,” “he’s pro-American, he is all about me”.
According to a January survey published by CBS News, if presidential elections were held now, Biden would lose to any Republican candidate. Moreover, the lead Nikki Haley would have over the Democratic candidate would be greater than that of Donald Trump.
However, the races have only just begun, and much can still change.
