The recent strikes on the Iranian regime have shaken the global economy — but just how severe could the fallout be? It all depends on how events play out. Here are two possible scenarios and what they could mean for Ukraine.
On 28 February 2026, the United States and Israel launched strikes against the Iranian regime with the apparent aim of removing the Islamic Republic’s leadership in Tehran. How it ends remains uncertain. The regime has suffered heavy losses, including the deaths of dozens of senior military and political figures — among them Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei — yet the authorities continue to signal they are ready to fight for as long as necessary.
Iran is a country of more than 90 million people with vast territory and a strategic location. Thanks in large part to its control over the Strait of Hormuz, it can exert significant influence on the global economy. With no large-scale ground operation currently planned and the expected internal uprising yet to materialise, the power structure in Tehran itself is, for now, facing few immediate threats.
Whatever the political objectives of Washington and Jerusalem may be, the war in the Middle East has already jolted global energy markets, with ripple effects across the world. The key question now is how long the conflict lasts — and how deeply it reshapes the global economy.
Event scenarios: what comes next?
The situation is changing fast, but the real question is how quickly it will end — a matter of weeks, or a long fight that could pull the whole region in?
Scenario 1: war against Islamic Republic ends within weeks
The killing of key political figures, the depletion of weapons stockpiles and sustained strikes on Iranian military facilities could inflict enough damage to push Tehran toward a rapid ceasefire. One possible outcome could resemble the Venezuelan scenario — where power formally remains in the hands of representatives of the current regime, but they become politically aligned with Washington. Donald Trump has already indicated that he would favour such an outcome.
In that case, the Islamic Republic would likely lift the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz fairly quickly. Its oil would return to global markets, and Tehran would effectively be pushed out of the Russia–Iran–North Korea–China “axis of evil.”
For Ukraine, this would be close to the best-case scenario. Moscow would lose one of its most important allies, while sanctions on Iranian oil could be eased and production increased — putting downward pressure on global prices.
At the global level, the situation would resemble what happened in June 2025: a sharp but short-lived spike in energy prices followed by a relatively quick return to normal, without lasting economic damage.
Scenario 2: war drags on
Another possibility is that the conflict turns into a prolonged confrontation. After hostilities began, Donald Trump said the war could last four to five weeks — or longer. Western media have reported that the Pentagon expects the fighting to continue for several months, potentially until September. Iran’s actions, including strikes on more than a dozen countries, suggest Tehran is preparing for a long fight.
In such a scenario, both sides would likely expand their targets beyond military facilities to include civilian infrastructure. In Iran, that could even strengthen domestic support for the regime. Tehran would not only keep the Strait of Hormuz blocked but could also encourage its Houthi proxies in Yemen to intensify attacks on shipping in the Red Sea.
The stakes for the global economy are enormous. Around 20 million barrels of oil a day — roughly 20% of global consumption — pass through the Strait of Hormuz, along with more than 100 billion cubic metres of liquefied gas each year. Disrupting such flows would trigger a shock of historic scale. Between 28 February and 6 March alone, the price of Brent crude jumped from about $73 to $88 per barrel — a rise of more than 20% — and prices could climb further.
A sharp increase in energy prices would push inflation higher around the world, as companies face rising transport and production costs. Central banks would likely respond by tightening monetary policy and raising interest rates, making loans more expensive and slowing economic activity.
Washington has been preparing for such a scenario. The United States has already signalled plans to support vulnerable oil carriers, including by providing insurance and deploying the U.S. Navy to escort tankers through dangerous waters. Saudi Arabia and other OPEC countries have reportedly agreed to increase production in an effort to limit price spikes. At the same time, Washington has eased sanctions on Russian oil purchased by India.
Even so, a large-scale war in the Middle East would remain a major shock for the global economy — and the longer the conflict lasts, the deeper its impact is likely to be.
Consequences for Ukraine
Ukraine has a strong stake in a swift end to the conflict with Iran. Kyiv does not want oil prices climbing above $100 a barrel and staying there for an extended period. At the same time, a rapid weakening of Islamic Republic as a military and economic partner to Russia would deal another geopolitical blow to the Kremlin — after setbacks in places like Syria and Venezuela.
Economically, rising energy prices would hit Ukraine in several ways. The country depends heavily on imports of petrol and diesel, so steeper global energy costs would push up transport expenses, raise the cost of sowing campaigns and increase military spending. Through the transport component alone, the price of everyday goods in shops would climb as well. That said, fuel prices in Ukraine have so far risen more slowly than in much of Europe; as of early March, increases at the pump in Ukraine were notably smaller than in countries such as Germany.
Another looming risk is food exports. The Middle East and North Africa are traditional markets for Ukrainian grain. Heightened security threats in the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf would drive up the cost of shipping insurance and freight. If economic instability in those importing regions deepens, their ability to buy Ukrainian agricultural products could be weakened.
Perhaps the biggest risk is that Western resources could be redirected to the Middle East. The United States and the EU hold limited stockpiles of Patriot missiles, other air-defence systems, and artillery shells. A prolonged war in the region could push allies to shift some of their financial and military support away from Ukraine to backing Israel or protecting their own bases. Global media and political attention could also turn to the Middle East, making it harder for Kyiv to secure new aid packages.
For now, the outcome remains highly uncertain. The war could end quickly, with the collapse of the Islamic Republic bringing relief to Ukraine and the wider world. Or, if fighting drags on, the consequences could be far more damaging.
