The CDU/CSU, led by its chancellor candidate Friedrich Merz, won the Bundestag elections with 28.5% of the vote. In second place was the far-right “Alternative for Germany,” which secured 20.8%, a more than 10% increase compared to 2021.
The Social Democratic Party of Germany came third, with its support dropping to a historic low of 16.4%. “Olaf Scholz acknowledged the poor result and took responsibility for the defeat. He will not participate in coalition negotiations,” reported the German publication Die Welt.
The Greens garnered 11.6%, while The Left party received 8.8%. The alliance led by Sahra Wagenknecht and the liberal Free Democratic Party failed to clear the 5% threshold needed to enter parliament.
The Ukrainian Week spoke to political scientist and analyst Andreas Umland from the Stockholm Centre for East European Studies about the impact of the “Alternative for Germany” on the new Bundestag, Friedrich Merz’s politics, and how quickly a new German coalition might take shape.
— In fact, the “Alternative for Germany,” which was strongly supported by Elon Musk, managed to overtake the Social Democrats. How will this affect the work of the Bundestag?
— Yes, the “Alternative for Germany” faction in the new Bundestag will be significantly larger than before. However, the party remains isolated and stigmatised, and no other party is willing to cooperate with it. So, while this isn’t the most dramatic scenario, it largely reflects what previous polls had suggested.
The bigger surprise came on the left side, with the Union led by Sahra Wagenknecht failing to make it into the new parliament. Meanwhile, the Left Party’s faction will now be bigger, and working with them could make sense for Ukraine. They have their own issues, like pacifism, but they’re still a different kind of left-wing party compared to Sahra Wagenknecht’s Union, which was entirely anti-Ukrainian and pro-Russian.
— According to a poll by the YouGov public opinion research institute, the most popular option among German voters is a coalition between the CDU/CSU and the SPD. What do you think is the most realistic coalition scenario?
— Right now, it looks like a two-party coalition between the Christian Democrats and the Social Democrats is the most likely. They will have enough deputies, especially since the Union led by Sahra Wagenknecht and the Free Democratic Party didn’t make it into the new parliament. However, it’s possible that the Social Democrats may decide not to join the government at all. I think some within the party might argue that it’s better for them to stay in opposition.
However, an important factor will be which Social Democrat politicians join the new government. Will it be figures like Rolf Mützenich or Ralf Stegner, who are somewhat unconventional—Scholz has already said he’s stepping back from politics—or will it be people like Boris Pistorius or Lars Klingbeil, who are more pro-Ukrainian? Essentially, there are two factions within the Social Democratic Party: one that’s more resolute and pro-Ukrainian, and another that’s less so. For Ukraine, I think this change of government is generally positive, as the leading party will be the Christian Democrats, who are more pro-Ukrainian than the Social Democrats.
— Merz mentioned Ukraine in his speech yesterday. Today, on the third anniversary of the full-scale invasion, he also posted that Europe firmly stands by Ukraine, and now, more than ever, it’s crucial to put it in a strong position. So, what kind of policy can we expect from Merz, particularly when it comes to supporting Ukraine?
— I believe Merz is genuinely pro-Ukrainian, and he sincerely believes in this; it’s not just political rhetoric. But the question is how effectively he will be able to implement this pro-Ukrainian stance. There are challenges both within the European Union, with problematic countries like Hungary, Slovakia, and Austria, and within German society. Polls show that the majority of Germans are still against supplying Taurus cruise missiles to Ukraine. So, while Merz has expressed his desire to do this, as long as most Germans oppose it, it’s unlikely to happen. He’ll need to shift public opinion first.
It’s also important to consider which Social Democrats will be in the new government, as their views on supplying Taurus missiles vary. So, while Merz’s statements sound promising, the real question is how successful he will be in achieving what he wants.
— Politico reports that, for the first time, the German head of government has shown such a strong affinity for the United States. Journalists note that Merz has visited the U.S. over 100 times and regards former President Ronald Reagan as one of his role models. So, what could German-American relations look like under him?
— Merz is very transatlantic, speaks English fluently, and has a deep understanding of America. He’s a business-minded politician, in many ways quite American. However, there’s an interesting development: yesterday, during a TV discussion, he criticised Trump, Vance, and Musk, which was a clear attempt to distance himself from the current American administration. This is particularly noteworthy considering Musk and Vance have supported the far-right “Alternative for Germany” party. So, it’s hard to say how things will evolve, but for now, rebuilding strong German-American relations will likely be challenging.
