“In two to three weeks, we will have a clear vision of what the ‘security guarantees’ for ensuring peace in Ukraine will look like,” Emmanuel Macron said during a press conference following the summit of 31 allied nations supporting Ukraine. “Our Europe needs greater independence,” he continued. “We cannot hold back from taking action simply because the Americans do not join us in building a lasting peace. Even if we would prefer a different course of events, if necessary, we will act alone—without the United States.”
How ready is Europe to assert real agency? We will soon find out. The Franco-British initiative is highly symbolic. This is not about deploying international forces along the frontline, in the combat zone, or even in major cities—perhaps not even beyond Ukraine’s western border. The point is the principle.
“There are no details yet on which countries will be involved or the size of the force, but there is reason to believe it could range from 10,000 to 30,000 troops, alongside fighter jets to protect Ukraine’s airspace and naval patrols to clear the Black Sea of mines to safeguard grain exports,” The Guardian reports.
Without waiting for others, France has announced an additional €2 billion in military aid to Ukraine, including Milan anti-tank missiles, air defence systems such as Mistral and MICA missiles, VAB armoured vehicles, AMX-10 RC tanks, a wide range of munitions—some remotely operated—and drones. “Will this require new taxes?” the far left immediately questioned. “When will there be more funding for hospitals and schools instead of weapons?” echoed voices across the internet. But Macron is not easily distracted when he chooses not to listen.
“We acted proactively and allocated the necessary funds in this year’s budget. France has phased out certain weapons to replenish its arsenal. We are purchasing more from our own manufacturers, so €2 billion is entirely feasible within the budget,” he said during yesterday’s press conference. Macron also clarified that a portion of the €2 billion announced comes from interest on frozen Russian assets. “Legal frameworks do not allow us to seize these assets, but we are fully within our rights to use the accrued interest at our discretion,” he stressed.
Behind the scenes, French diplomats acknowledge that Ukraine’s bravery has become the true “gold reserve” of the negotiation process. “No one expected such desperate and, most importantly, successful resistance!” a former employee of the French embassy in Kyiv told The Ukrainian Week. “Ukrainians have demonstrated not only fearlessness but also exceptional ingenuity, an ability to innovate, and the capacity to develop their own defence industry.” Above all, this is what gives Macron confidence in his difficult negotiations with Trump.
The “coalition of the willing” now comprises 31 nations, with a tactical action plan focused on bolstering support for Ukraine, establishing an effective framework to end hostilities, and enhancing Europe’s military capabilities in collaboration with Ukraine.
In France, discussions are underway about deploying a “reassurance force” either along the Dnipro River, in central Ukraine, or at the western border. The goal of such a force would be to prevent Moscow from launching another offensive, protect the skies over key cities, and secure strategic bases. For this initiative to become a reality, far more political will is required than is currently evident. Yet what matters most is that there is momentum—an increasing awareness of the threat, and a growing willingness to act.
At the level of official discourse, French diplomacy is careful to ensure that the proposal for “reassurance force” does not appear to compete with, or exclude, the United States. “We would prefer to act in cooperation with our American partners, with U.S. security guarantees,” officials at the Élysée Palace emphasise. Paris seems increasingly unfazed by Russia’s objections to the presence of foreign troops on Ukrainian soil. Macron now openly accuses Moscow of hypocrisy—violating agreements, acting insincerely, and failing to show any real willingness to end the war. It has taken three years of brutal conflict to reach this level of clarity, but the shift in approach is undeniable.
“There can be no peace in Ukraine without Ukraine, and no European security without Europeans,” France’s diplomatic service stated, summing up the outcomes of the recent summit. “Discussing the conditions for a ceasefire means, first and foremost, addressing obligations, establishing accountability, and defining the measures to be taken in the event of a ceasefire violation.”
Last Thursday, Sweden also announced an increase in military support for Ukraine. Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, who attended the summit in Paris, unveiled the launch of “Sweden’s largest military rearmament plan since the Cold War.” The objective is to increase defence spending to “nearly 3.5% of GDP by 2030.”
The Ukrainian army will continue to serve as the frontline of defence—not just for Ukraine, but for Europe as a whole—an increasingly accepted reality among Poles, Italians, French, and British. Kyiv has been asserting this for a decade, but only now, after Donald Trump’s return to power in the U.S., have Europeans begun to embrace this obvious truth and start taking it to heart.
As the situation develops, China and Turkey’s roles are becoming more important. Both countries have been playing a careful balancing game to protect their own interests. “Paris wants China to use its close ties with Russia to take a more active role in helping resolve the conflict in Ukraine,” Macron said.
“We are emerging from a state of geopolitical minority. This is good for Europe,” French President Macron remarked as the “Willing” summit came to a close. He appeared unusually calm, even inspired.
“What’s being decided in Ukraine right now is bigger than the fate of Ukraine itself; it’s the fate of Europe,” he emphasised. The question now is whether Europe will rise to the challenges ahead. Europeans have the financial and economic capacity to do so. The real obstacle, however, lies in the collective political will of the EU countries. Will that will materialise in the next two to three weeks, as Macron optimistically suggested? The answer depends on many factors. One of the key ones is the unpredictability of Washington and the potential surprises of the new American policy. Under Trump, Europeans have found themselves in the same boat as the Ukrainians—and now they must row together to avoid sinking.
