Georgia heads to the polls on 4 October, but the lead-up has been anything but ordinary. Authorities have signalled they may use force on election day — reportedly with the involvement of Ukrainian intelligence services. While the vote itself is unlikely to shake the global political order, it will be a crucial test for both the country’s opposition and the international community.
The Ukrainian Week spoke with Georgian civic activist and political analyst George Melashvili, founder and president of the Europe-Georgia Institute, about how the elections are shaping up, the wave of arrests and provocations, and what the EU should do in response.
— Preparations for the local elections have effectively turned into a wave of pre-election repression. With arrests including Levan Khabeishvili, a leader of the opposition United National Movement, former Prosecutor General Murtaz Zodelava, and ex-Defence Minister Juansher Burchuladze, what do these detentions reveal about Georgian Dream?
— What’s happening in Georgia right now isn’t ordinary pre-election manoeuvring — it’s outright repression, aimed at intimidating the opposition, dividing society, and consolidating Georgian Dream’s power at any cost. For them, these elections aren’t just about votes; they’re about legitimacy and international recognition. But the process itself is already seriously compromised.
Of the four main political forces, only two are participating, while half of the political leadership sits behind bars. Both approaches — taking part or boycotting — have their arguments and can be justified. But splitting the opposition into two parallel strategies is a recipe for disaster, weakening the democratic front at precisely the moment when unity is most critical.
The arrests of Levan Khabeishvili and Murtaz Zodelava are directly tied to the United National Movement’s announcement of a major protest rally on 4 October. Khabeishvili, in particular, became a target after revealing confidential internal information that exposed rising tensions within Georgian Dream itself — specifically between former and current prime ministers, Irakli Garibashvili and Irakli Kobakhidze. His detention is not just an attempt to silence a critical voice; it’s also an effort to hide the fractures within the ruling party.
Juansher Burchuladze’s case, meanwhile, highlights a different dimension. Having served as defence minister under a Georgian Dream government, he is not an opposition figure being persecuted but a casualty of the party’s internal clan struggles. His arrest exposes entrenched corruption among Georgia’s ruling elite, the incompetence of its leadership, and the way these internal disputes play out publicly. Far from signalling stability, it underscores what the opposition has long argued: the ruling party is consumed by infighting, riddled with corruption, and incapable of governing responsibly.
Taken together, these arrests point to the collapse of genuine political competition in Georgia. Rather than fostering a free and fair political environment, Georgian Dream relies on repression, intimidation, and selective justice to maintain power — at the expense of the country’s democratic reputation and its European future.
— The authorities have already hinted at a violent power grab on 4 October. Do you expect provocations to increase in the coming days, and how do the claims about Ukrainian security services fit into this scenario?
— Yes, unfortunately, we can expect violence in the coming days, and provocations are very likely. The government has already laid the groundwork by framing 4 October as an alleged “attempted violent seizure of power.” It’s a textbook authoritarian move: create a narrative of extremism in advance, then use it to justify repression against opposition leaders, civil society, and activists.
Provocations from Georgian Dream are highly probable. We could see staged clashes or orchestrated incidents used as excuses to label the opposition “radical” or “dangerous.” Once that label sticks, the ruling party can move to crush and discredit its opponents, all under the guise of maintaining stability.
Mentions of Ukrainian security services are part of the same playbook. Georgian Dream has long used Ukraine as a warning, trying to undermine pro-European feeling at home and shift attention from its own failures. By blaming Ukraine for the protests, the authorities aren’t just attacking the opposition — they’re also playing into Moscow’s story, making it seem like Western-backed neighbours are troublemakers rather than partners.
So yeah, we should expect provocations, violence, and efforts to criminalise anyone who speaks out. This isn’t about stopping extremism — it’s about creating it as an excuse to crush democratic voices in Georgia.
— How do you see these elections playing out overall? Could they shape the protest movement, and what should the EU’s response be?
— On their own, these local elections aren’t decisive — neither municipal councils nor mayors can fundamentally shift Georgia’s political regime. What matters more is the context: the repression, the arrests, the provocations — all of it feeds public frustration. In that sense, these elections could easily become the spark that sets off a new wave of protests.
The protest movement is already picking up pace, and the authorities’ heavy-handed approach could easily backfire, speeding up mobilisation instead of tightening control. If people see that even local elections are a sham, opposition leaders are in jail, and speaking out is treated as a crime, frustration will hit the boiling point. The regime might “win” at the ballot box, but it risks losing on the streets.
For the EU, the response needs to be clear, quick, and focused. Empty statements won’t cut it. Brussels should target those behind the political repression and corruption with sanctions, while also boosting support for civil society and independent media. What’s at stake isn’t just a local vote — it’s Georgia’s European future. The EU can’t afford to sit back while democracy is being dismantled step by step.
