If the current regime sees the victory of an opposition candidate in the 2015 presidential election as inevitable (even with all leverage the Party of Regions can apply, including administrative leverage, rigging and so on), a Premier Yanukovych operation is likely to take place whereby new amendments to the Constitution will once again restrict the president’s powers while handing them over the head of government, the article suggests.
A new system of governance designed by the Constitutional Assembly and its version of the Constitution “finalized” by the Presidential Administration, Yanukovych as premier may end up with the leverage of the key person in the state.
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Observers claim that Vladimir Putin acted this way in 2008–2012. In fact, this scenario was tested in many post-Soviet countries, including Ukraine in 2006-2010 when the political reform of 2004 was being implemented. The team of Mikheil Saakashvili tried to use an identical scenario in Georgia.
Saakashvili could not have been elected for the third time because of constitutional restrictions. As a result, Saakashvili’s circle initiated the adoption of the Law on Amendments to the Constitution of Georgia in 2010 that shifted the core of executive power in the country from president to premier. The amendments restricted the rights of the president while reinforcing those of the government and parliament. However, the defeat of Saakashvili’s party in the 2012 parliamentary election prevented this as parliamentary majority was the only thing to guarantee the extension of his power in a new parliamentary-presidential model, the article argues.
Read more in Operation Premier Yanukovych by Andriy Skumin and Andriy Kovalenko.
