The consequences of not helping Ukraine end the war on its own terms have predictably destabilised the entire world. Hamas, with the help of Russia and Iran, two Chinese satellite states, attacked Israel on October 7th, and fighting still rages on in Gaza. Western attention and resources are thus stretched thinner. The West’s weak reaction to the war in Ukraine has emboldened dictators around the world. There were warnings that this would happen but they were ignored. Now, Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro has seen his own opportunity, not only to distract the Venezuelan population from their day-to-day economic woes but even to score a victory for the country simultaneously.
The 2023 Venezuelan referendum, initiated by Nicolás Maduro’s government and held on the 3rd of December, focused on Venezuela’s claim to the Guyana Esequiba territory (over half of Guyana’s territory), internationally recognized as Guyana. Conducted on December 3, 2023, it comprised five questions addressing various aspects of the territorial claim, including rejection of the jurisdiction of the International Court of Justice, creation of a Guyana Esequiba state and immediate Venezuelan citizenship for its population. The government reported over 95% ‘yes’ votes on each question amidst low turnout, while allegations of falsified results contributed to the ongoing crisis. The question is if Maduro will be bold enough to take the territory of Guyana Esequiba.
Nicolás Maduro’s attempt to annex the Esequiba region likely stems from a mix of historical claims and nationalistic aspirations, but most importantly – due to its rich natural resources, primarily oil. Such actions pose risks to global stability and security by potentially igniting regional conflicts, undermining international law and territorial sovereignty principles, and creating a precedent for similar territorial disputes worldwide. This move can escalate tensions not only between Venezuela and Guyana but also involve other nations, impacting international relations and regional harmony.
It is clear that Maduro’s main focus is on the reaction of other Latin American neighbours. If no intervention is expected from their side, he will surely see it as a green light. Sanctions and condemnations from the West will certainly not change his future decision here. After all, this initiative and ever-growing attempt to annex part of Guyana has been inspired by the weak support for Ukraine and the distraction in Israel. When Ukraine’s sovereignty was undermined in 2014 and at full-scale in 2022, the failure to reassert the principle of territorial integrity around the world will inevitably lead to more regional conflicts around the world. Most of these conflicts will be under the guidance of the China-Russia-Iran axis and their allies, like North Korea, Venezuela and Cuba.
