Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate says it targeted a Russian Speedboat in Crimea. On May 6, Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate announced that they had targeted a Russian speedboat on the western coast of Crimea. Reportedly, Unit 13 of Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence’s Main Intelligence Directorate carried out a successful operation destroying the Russian speedboat using the Magura V5 strike sea drone in Crimea’s Vuzka Bay. Ukrainian intelligence also added that as the Russian navy moves its larger vessels away from the occupied peninsula, the Ukrainian military has shifted its focus to targeting Russian fast, manoeuvrable military vessels in Crimea’s territorial waters. The intelligence press service also unveiled footage of a camera approaching one of these vessels, presumably affixed to a sea drone. Their data indicates that Magura V5 sea drones have previously played a role in neutralising Russian vessels like Cezar Kunikov, Ivanovets, Sergey Kotov, Akula, and Serna. Additionally, they inflicted damage on the Russian medium reconnaissance ship Ivan Khurs.
Putin reportedly orders exercises on the use of non-strategic nuclear weapons. The Russian Ministry of Defence reported that President Vladimir Putin has instructed the General Staff to prepare for exercises on the use of non-strategic nuclear weapons. According to the department’s press release, the General Staff has initiated preparations for exercises with missile units of the Southern Military District to enhance the readiness of non-strategic nuclear forces for combat missions. It is alleged that the manoeuvres are scheduled to occur soon, with aviation and navy units also participating. The Ministry of Defence also insisted that these exercises responded to what it called “provocative statements and threats from certain Western officials” directed at Russia.
ISW: Russia is mobilising troops for an advance on Kharkiv but lacks the strength to capture the city. The Russian military has shifted troops to the Kursk region and is gathering forces for a potential offensive in northeastern Ukraine and Kharkiv. According to the ISW report, Ukrainian military observer Kostyantyn Mashovets revealed on May 5 that approximately 50,000 Russian personnel have gathered in the Belgorod, Kursk, and Bryansk regions, forming part of the Northern grouping of forces. Furthermore, the Russian military is assembling the Northern grouping from the Leningrad Military District units, focusing on the Belgorod-Kharkiv operational direction. Mashovets highlighted ongoing transfers of newly formed units from the 44th Army Corps of the Russian Federation to the Northern grouping. As of May 3, live personnel and equipment from the 30th Motorised Rifle Regiment and the 128th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade have been relocated, with Russian forces simulating unloading activities at railway stations in the Kursk region to conceal their movements towards deployment points in Belgorod.
Additionally, recent weeks have seen a surge in Russian military activity, with intensified air, drone, and missile strikes targeting northeastern border regions of Ukraine, including Chernihiv, Sumy, and Kharkiv. Ukrainian officials are increasingly concerned about the possibility of a Russian offensive operation to capture Kharkiv. While ISW acknowledges that Russian forces may lack the capacity to seize the city, any such offensive could still draw Ukrainian forces away from more strategically vital areas along the front line. ISW maintains that Ukraine should proactively intercept any Russian offensive initiative, as allowing such operations to proceed would grant Russia significant advantages throughout 2024. However, the effectiveness of Ukraine’s response hinges on unresolved decisions in the West, Russia, and Ukraine itself. Attempts to dictate timelines for Ukrainian counteroffensive actions overlook the complexities of the battlefield and may not accurately reflect the situation on the ground.
Russia rushes to occupy Chasiv Yar, a gateway to the entire Donbas region. During the United News live telethon, Serhiy Chaus, head of the Chasiv Yar city military administration, revealed that despite relentless shelling by Russian occupation forces, Chasiv Yar in the Bakhmut district of Donetsk region still houses 682 local residents. He noted that these people are ordinary community members who have chosen to remain despite the ongoing military activities, with many being seniors aged 60 and above. Chaus explained their decision to stay by highlighting many’s emotional connection to Chasiv Yar, viewing it as their ancestral homeland where previous generations lived and were buried. Despite encouragement for evacuation, he acknowledged the significant obstacles, noting a substantial drop in evacuation figures from the previous week, with no evacuations reported this week.
Military analyst and Ukraine’s ATO veteran Yevhen Dykyy, speaking on the United News telethon, underscored that Russians recognise the strategic importance of Chasiv Yar in determining the outcome of the major battle for Donbas. Control over Chasiv Yar, he explained, equates to control over the entire large agglomeration of Kostiantynivka, Kramatorsk, Slovyansk, and Druzhkivka, with the fate of these four cities resting on Chasiv Yar. Therefore, he described the fight for Chasiv Yar as already fierce and expected to intensify further.
Earlier, Major-General Vadym Skibitsky, the deputy head of military intelligence, cautioned that Ukraine is on the brink of losing this critical eastern town to Russia, albeit not imminently. He stressed that the outcome hinges on the availability of reserves and supplies. Speaking to The Economist, Skibitsky highlighted the gradual erosion of control over the town, especially Chasiv Yar, which has been decimated by continuous bombardment over the past year, leaving it in ruins. The capture of Chasiv Yar would enable Russian forces to gain access to the headquarters of Ukraine’s eastern command in Kramatorsk and the essential supply hub of Kostiantynivka, both densely populated civilian areas. Skibitsky also revealed a Russian directive to secure territorial gains ahead of the ‘Victory Day’ celebrations in Moscow on May 9 or, failing that, before Vladimir Putin’s scheduled visit to Beijing a week later.
