Ukraine and Qatar: opportunities beyond mediation

PoliticsSecurityWorld
30 September 2024, 10:38

Ukraine and Qatar established diplomatic relations on April 13, 1993, but for nearly two decades, neither country maintained a diplomatic presence in the other. Recently, however, the political dialogue between the two nations has intensified.

Central to their relationship are shared commitments to respect territorial integrity and sovereignty, alongside the aspiration for an independent foreign policy. In this light, Qatar emerges as a promising partner for Ukraine—not only in the energy sector but also in navigating the complex diplomatic landscape of the Russian-Ukrainian war. This partnership holds the potential for broader collaboration with other Arab nations, further enriching the ties between Kyiv and Doha.

What shapes Qatar’s foreign policy?

The political landscape of Qatar is largely defined by Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, who has held power since 2013. His tenure has been marked by a consolidation of authority, particularly following two significant crises—in 2014 and from 2017 to 2021—when neighbouring states, led by Saudi Arabia, sought to pressure Qatar into abandoning its regional policies. In response, the young emir has recalibrated Qatar’s foreign policy, moving away from the aggressive regional posture favoured by his father and aiming to restore the nation’s role as a mediator in regional affairs, reminiscent of its position before 2011.

For Qatar, the principles of territorial integrity and sovereignty are more than just diplomatic platitudes. Over the past four decades, officials from countries like Saudi Arabia have repeatedly dismissed Qatar as an artificial construct. This contentious backdrop includes the challenges of border demarcation and minor armed clashes along the Qatar-Saudi border in 1992 and 1994. Compounding these tensions, the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait starkly illustrated that Saudi Arabia could not reliably protect smaller states in the region. Qatar’s apprehensions are further fueled by historical territorial claims from its neighbour and a past coup attempt in February 1996, which was partly triggered by Qatar’s announcement of a bold modernisation and political liberalisation agenda.

Since the mid-1990s, Qatar has pursued a three-pronged strategy to bolster its international standing and reduce dependency: it has sought to supply liquefied natural gas (LNG) to a broad range of countries, maintained a U.S. military presence as a safeguard for its security, and leveraged soft power through substantial investments in media, education, and sports.

The emirate’s focus on gas production, particularly LNG, has transformed it into a highly sought-after supplier on the global stage, with its importance in key markets steadily increasing. Since the 1990s, Qatar’s leadership has worked diligently to position the nation as the world’s largest gas exporter. With the third-largest gas reserves globally—trailing only Russia and Iran—Qatar stands apart due to its access to modern technologies and open markets, especially as its two rivals face international sanctions. Over the years, Qatar has supplied approximately one-third of the world’s LNG, continually expanding its infrastructure and adopting technologies that have significantly reduced the costs associated with liquefaction and transportation. A considerable investment has also been made in developing its own fleet of tankers, which, as of 2015, was the largest in the world, boasting over 60 modern vessels that outpaced any competitors.

Despite the blockade imposed by several Arab nations against Qatar in 2017, companies from the United States, China, the European Union, Russia, and India have demonstrated a robust interest in Qatari projects. In response, Qatar has increasingly directed its investments toward gas infrastructure in consumer nations. This strategic gas policy has significantly undermined the efforts of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, and Egypt to isolate the emirate. Qatar’s crucial role in global gas markets has made it indispensable for major energy companies, ensuring continued business engagement.

The strength of Qatar’s position became even more pronounced in 2022. The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the ensuing sanctions on the Russian energy sector led to a notable, albeit temporary, spike in prices, simultaneously enhancing Qatar’s stature as a potential gas supplier. Its focus on LNG has equipped it to adapt swiftly to shifting market demands, paving the way for the emirate to explore new markets in Europe.

Over the past three decades, Qatar has viewed the policies of Saudi Arabia and Iran—both of which have a history of conflicts with smaller states in the Persian Gulf—as a fundamental threat to its national security. In response, the emirate’s leaders have sought to counterbalance this challenge by fostering close ties with the United States. A pivotal move in this strategy occurred in 2003 with the deployment of American troops to Al Udeid Air Base.

Additionally, at the close of 2002, the U.S. Central Command, which oversees military operations from Yemen to Afghanistan, established its regional headquarters (U.S. Central Command Forward) in Qatar. The presence of approximately 10,000 American troops has since become a crucial security asset for the emirate, reinforcing its strategic posture in a volatile region.

In 2017, Qatar and the United States formalised joint initiatives to combat terrorism and its financing while also agreeing to expand the American base at Al Udeid and modernise the Air Force command centre, a project largely funded by Qatar. Moreover, Qatar proposed the newly inaugurated Hamad Port—officially opened in September 2017—as a docking point for U.S. Navy vessels from the Fifth Fleet.

One of the key U.S. airbases in the Middle East is situated in Al Udeid.

The ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine and its ramifications for global energy supplies have further solidified Qatar’s standing in gas markets, significantly influencing U.S.-Qatar relations. In January 2022, President Biden announced that the U.S. government had designated Qatar as a ‘major non-NATO ally’.

While this status does not obligate the U.S. to provide military protection for Qatar, it is widely viewed as a symbol of particularly strong ties between the two nations. Before 2022, this designation was limited to Kuwait and Bahrain in the Persian Gulf, while in other parts of the Middle East, it was conferred upon Israel, Jordan, Egypt, Tunisia, and Morocco.

Among the emirate’s key priorities is the strategic use of soft power tools to bolster its authority and position itself as a hub for significant global events, a trusted mediator, and a close U.S. ally in the Middle East. Qatar seeks to enhance its stature through substantial investments in media, culture, education, tourism, and sports, aiming to elevate its influence on the world stage.

Al Jazeera, founded in 1996, transformed the Arab media landscape, quickly becoming the most prominent news channel in the region. As oil and gas revenues surged, Qatar expanded its soft power strategy into education, science, and culture. This initiative is primarily directed through the Qatar Foundation, established in 1995, which has facilitated the establishment of branches of American, British, and French universities and think tanks within its expansive Education City complex. In addition, the Foundation has overseen the creation of 88 cultural institutions, further solidifying Qatar’s commitment to fostering a vibrant cultural and educational environment.

Mediator in regional conflicts

With the ascension of Emir Hamad in 1995, Qatar positioned itself as a regional mediator, seeking to navigate the complexities of Middle Eastern politics. In the early 2000s, the emirate initiated a process of rapprochement with Iran, Saudi Arabia’s primary regional rival, largely driven by the need to coordinate the joint utilisation of a shared gas field.

Following a significant deterioration in relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, along with their respective allies, in 2005, Qatar began to assert itself as a mediator, aiming to showcase its capacity to facilitate dialogue and resolution of regional issues to the U.S. and the West.

Since then, Doha has played a pivotal role in mediating various conflicts, including those involving the Palestinians—both the Palestine Liberation Organisation and Hamas—rebels and the Darfur government in Sudan, the Houthis and the Yemeni government, as well as tensions in Lebanon. Additionally, Qatar has acted as an intermediary between Israel and Palestine and facilitated discussions between the U.S. and the Taliban, notably regarding the withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan, among other diplomatic efforts.

After initially outlining an ambitious reconfiguration of the regional order in the Arab world in the early 2010s, Doha began to recalibrate its ambitions from 2013 onward. Nevertheless, Qatar continues to assert its claim to regional leadership. By positioning itself as a unique and reliable mediator, the emirate seeks to de-escalate regional conflicts, presenting itself as an indispensable player. It has maintained working relationships with Iran and its regional allies, as well as with groups like Hamas, the Taliban, and the Muslim Brotherhood, often provoking tensions with other Arab states such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE. This balancing act has also resulted in strengthened ties with Turkey.

During the Ukrainian Prism delegation’s visit to Qatar in April 2024, the theme of mediation—both as a defining brand and a cornerstone of the country’s foreign policy—resonated in every meeting with Qatari officials. This underscored the entrenchment of this diplomatic approach at all levels, from governmental discussions to expert consultations.

Education City in Doha. Source: https://www.qf.org.qa/

Ukraine and Qatar

Diplomatic relations between Ukraine and Qatar were established in 1993, but for nearly a decade, they remained largely dormant. This stagnation stemmed in part from Ukraine’s limited diplomatic engagement beyond its traditional spheres of interaction during the 1990s, compounded by a scarcity of diplomatic missions in many regions worldwide. During this period, Qatar was still in the process of amassing resources, with ambitious projects that would later capture global attention either in their nascent stages or merely conceptual.

It wasn’t until January 2002 that Ukraine’s foreign minister made the first official visit to Qatar, coinciding with a time when the Middle East was drawing international scrutiny in the wake of the 9/11 attacks.

A significant breakthrough in bilateral relations between Ukraine and Qatar emerged in the 2010s, marked by official visits from the Emir of Qatar to Ukraine, as well as reciprocal visits from the Ukrainian Prime Minister and President to Qatar. The establishment of embassies for both nations further solidified this diplomatic engagement. These discussions encompassed a wide array of topics, including the evolving situation in the Middle East amid the tumult of the Arab Spring, the supply of Ukrainian grain to Egypt, ambitious construction projects in Qatar, investment opportunities across various sectors, energy resources, and Qatar’s expertise in offshore development.

In the years that followed, efforts were made to restore contacts after a prolonged hiatus and a change in Ukraine’s leadership. In March 2018, during a regional tour, the President of Ukraine made an official visit to the State of Qatar, signalling a renewed commitment to strengthening ties.

The past two years have been characterised by a remarkable level of communication between the leaders of Ukraine and Qatar. President Volodymyr Zelensky engaged in multiple phone conversations with Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, highlighting the strengthening of their diplomatic ties. An official visit by President Zelensky to Qatar on April 4-5, 2021, marked a significant moment in this relationship, as the Ukrainian delegation actively sought investors for a range of projects. In response, Qatar pursued investments in logistics, infrastructure, and various global initiatives to bolster its strategic presence.

These discussions culminated in Qatari investments in Ukraine’s Olyvia port and sparked keen interest across Qatar and other Persian Gulf nations in Saudi Arabia’s investment strategies within the Ukrainian agricultural sector. The exchanges between President Zelensky and Emir Tamim during 2020 and 2021 proved pivotal following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. They laid a strong foundation for cooperation and underscored Qatar’s commitment to upholding Ukraine’s territorial integrity and independence, a stance articulated early in the conflict.

Qatar’s response to Russia’s aggression against Ukraine is influenced by a myriad of factors, including its regional identity, the need to consider the security positions of its allies, foreign policy priorities, economic interests, and its self-perception as a mediator. Additionally, the prevailing sentiments within the international organisations to which they belong play a significant role.

In contrast to the UAE, which has taken a more conciliatory approach toward Russia, Qatar has been notably attuned to U.S. positions. Following Vladimir Putin’s announcement of the “special military operation” against Ukraine, Qatar and Kuwait emerged as the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) members that, at least rhetorically, offered the most robust support for Kyiv. Currently, they stand as the only Gulf monarchies to have voted in favour of condemning human rights violations in Crimea and advocating for Ukraine on the issue of reparations.

Qatar’s stance reflects not only a desire to align with the United States but also its recent experiences with pressure and aggression from larger regional neighbours, shaping its commitment to uphold international norms and support for Ukraine.

Doha’s response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is anchored in its commitment to uphold international law, which condemns the illegal use of force and the annexation of territory from smaller nations. This principle aligns closely with President Volodymyr Zelensky’s appeal during the Doha Forum in the early days of the war, where he urged, “So that someone who is 28 times larger does not think they can do anything they want. And that a state’s nuclear status does not serve as permission for any injustice against other states.”

Qatar’s most significant mediation efforts on behalf of Ukraine commenced in the autumn of 2023, focusing on the challenging issue of returning abducted Ukrainian children from Russian territory. Just months after a visit from the Qatari Prime Minister to Kyiv in July 2023, the first group of children was successfully returned to Ukraine through Qatari mediation. This effort was not a mere one-off; rather, it was facilitated by the strong personal connections established between representatives of Ukraine and Qatar, which fostered a deep commitment to the cause.

Meeting between Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal and Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani, the Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs of the State of Qatar, on July 28, 2023, in Kyiv.

Qatar’s mediating role reflects a strategic pursuit of utility through interdependence, positioning itself as an indispensable partner capable of bridging state and non-state actors, small and large nations, unlikely allies, and ideological rivals. This aspiration to be a geopolitical hub for mediation and dialogue is a vital aspect of the emirate’s network-centric approach to foreign relations.

In addition to geopolitical and ideological considerations, energy interests play a crucial role in shaping Qatar’s perspective on the war in Ukraine. As a prominent gas producer, Doha finds itself with a unique opportunity to bolster its standing in the European market. By its actions, Russia has inadvertently surrendered 40% of this lucrative market to its competitors.

Despite the underlying tensions between Doha and Moscow, instances of pragmatic cooperation persist, particularly in the realms of sports, tourism, infrastructure, and investments. The Qatar Investment Authority (QIA) has made substantial investments in the Russian oil giant Rosneft, which has also influenced Doha’s stance, especially concerning its approach to sanctions against Russia. While Qatar has refrained from endorsing the Western sanctions regime, it has not completely withdrawn its investments from the Russian economy. The value of QIA’s holdings in Russia has diminished due to sanctions, flight bans, and the ruble’s depreciation. Yet, the Sovereign Wealth Fund of Qatar (SWF) has maintained its financial commitments thus far.

A new chapter in Qatar’s engagement with Ukrainian affairs began with the visit of Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, Qatar’s Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs, to Ukraine on July 28, 2023. During this visit, Qatar expressed support for several of Ukraine’s foreign policy initiatives, including the Peace Formula and the Grain Initiative, while also announcing a $100 million allocation for humanitarian programmes. This visit marked the start of Qatar’s mission to facilitate the return of Ukrainian children unlawfully abducted by Russia. Since then, leaders and representatives from both nations have maintained constant communication, underscoring the deepening ties between them.

Opportunities beyond mediation

In recent years, Ukraine and Qatar have cultivated a robust relationship characterised by a growing intensity. To sustain and further strengthen these ties, new initiatives in the economic, cultural, and political spheres would be highly beneficial.

Given Qatar’s unique expertise as a negotiator and mediator, it would be advantageous to broaden its involvement to include not only the release of children but also the safe return of civilian hostages.

Moreover, Ukraine and Qatar can enhance their collaboration with various international organisations. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is a primary focus for Doha, making issues of nuclear safety and the development of peaceful atomic energy promising avenues for joint efforts. Additionally, Qatar could play a pivotal role within the United Nations, particularly during General Assembly votes, by rallying support for Ukraine from other countries in the region.

Despite the ongoing Russian war against Ukraine, Ukraine is eager to pursue investment plans with Qatar. Proposing joint logistics hub projects in Eastern European countries bordering Ukraine would be a strategic move. Such initiatives could capitalise on existing demand while drawing on Qatar’s extensive experience in port infrastructure development, exemplified by its projects in Turkey (Antalya Port) and the Netherlands (Rotterdam Port), as well as the expansion of Qatar Airways’ cargo terminals in emerging markets. The transportation and logistics infrastructure at Ukraine’s western border will require enhancement regardless of the current geopolitical climate.

The energy sector also presents substantial opportunities for cooperation, extending beyond the supply of resources to Ukraine. As Qatar emerges as a key player in the European gas market, prospects for collaboration in storing Qatari gas within Ukraine’s underground gas storage facilities are becoming increasingly viable.

Additionally, exploring new areas of cooperation, particularly in trade in services, could prove beneficial. The development of innovative technologies and IT offers a promising avenue where Qatari investments can synergise with Ukrainian expertise to tap into new niches in the Middle East. This collaboration could encompass both civilian and dual-use technologies, as well as military applications such as drone production.

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This material has been prepared as part of the “New Global Partnerships – Expert Diplomacy and Advocacy” project, supported by the International Renaissance Foundation. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the stance of the International Renaissance Foundation.

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