The fate of Ukraine is determined by its people. However, in our interconnected world, the flutter of a butterfly’s wings at the Capitol can have a huge impact on events on the other side of the Atlantic.
After the start of Russia’s large-scale invasion, the United States became a reliable ally for Ukraine. The Biden Administration and Congress allocated over 75 billion dollars in humanitarian, financial, and military aid to Ukraine.
Towards the end of 2023, it became evident that bipartisan support from Congress cannot be taken for granted, even when it comes to protecting a country that safeguards the entire democratic world. The United States entered an election year with a very abrupt turn, marked by a several-week political crisis, the threat of a government shutdown, and a change in the President of the House of Representatives.
During President Zelensky’s visit to the US capital in September, it became apparent that the Capitol was mostly interested in two things – the objectives and accountability that Ukraine and the Biden Administration aim to accomplish with the new aid program. The question is, how can the new aid program worth billions of dollars achieve what the previous ones failed to accomplish?
Kevin McCarthy, who was removed from the presidency of the House of Representatives in October, had expressed his growing interest in ensuring that the already allocated aid would be used appropriately. After McCarthy’s removal, Republican Mike Johnson, a supporter of Donald Trump, altered his stance on providing lend-lease to Ukraine and imposing severe sanctions against Russia. He now doubts the effectiveness of using American taxpayers’ money in this manner. “We will have conditions for that [providing Ukraine with a new aid program – ed.]. We want full accountability, and we want the White House to have clear goals. And we will have those discussions,” he said.
What will the confrontation between Democrats and Republicans mean for Ukraine in 2024?
The Ukrainian issue will test the United States’ willingness to prioritise national security and protect its values over political power struggles. Unfortunately, Ukraine may become a bargaining chip for those prioritising domestic politics over international geopolitics. However, as Americans say, the United States is, first and foremost, the United States.
In the days before Christmas, President Biden and a high-level Ukrainian delegation made efforts to adopt a $61 billion aid program for Ukraine. However, despite their meetings and speeches by Yermak and Zelensky in December, the aid program was not adopted. Biden expressed his disappointment and described the Congress’s failure to vote on the aid program as the “nicest Christmas gift to Putin.”
American political scientist Fiona Hill explained the events as follows: “The problem is that many members of Congress do not want to see President Biden win on any front. People do not understand the difference between letting Biden win and letting Ukraine win. They think less about American national security, European security, international security, and foreign policy, and more about how they can humiliate Biden.”
The idea of tying aid to Ukraine to the resolution of the security issue at the Mexican border is a political ploy. The Democrats and Republicans have been unable to reach a consensus on immigration policy for decades. If Biden gives in too much to the demands of the opposition party, he may come across as weak and indecisive. However, if he stays firm and refuses to make any concessions, the country may suffer and the Republicans could use this as an opportunity to portray the administration as incompetent. Therefore, it is crucial for Biden to strike a balance and make decisions that align with the Democratic Party’s agenda while also considering the needs and concerns of the entire country.
Senator Mitch McConnell, the Republican leader in the Senate, has historically been in favour of providing aid to Ukraine. However, he is now urging fellow Republicans to oppose a proposed security package. McConnell argues that any legislation that does not address the political changes necessary to protect our borders will not pass the Senate. According to McConnell, the situation at the southern border during the Biden administration is a crisis of historic proportions.
Biden said that he had already proposed a compromise on border security, as that is how democracy works, according to him. “Holding Ukraine funding hostage to force the adoption of the Republican Party’s extreme border program is not the way to go. We need real solutions”, he emphasised in a recent press conference. An advisory group consisting of members from all political parties is currently working to find a solution to the border security issue. However, are the Republicans showing interest in resolving it now? After all, the longer the confrontation lasts, the more negative impact it will have on Biden’s approval ratings, who is already unconfident in his victory in the 2024 elections.
So what’s going to happen?
It is likely that the aid plan for Ukraine will still be voted on, but it will happen next year. The Republicans are fully aware of the consequences they might face if they lose against Putin. Even if there is strong bipartisan support for Ukraine in the Senate, there might be a heated debate in the House of Representatives. Some observers believe that the “America First” philosophy of Donald Trump has caused an increase in anti-Ukrainian sentiments among Republicans in the run-up to the elections.
In the previous year, some Republican representatives who were part of the far right made strong verbal attacks against Zelensky. During a public hearing, Representative Madison Cawthorne from North Carolina said, “Remember that Zelensky is a thug.” He also added, “Remember that the Ukrainian government is extremely corrupt and bad.”
This is still the marginal position of an isolationist minority. The more traditionalist view of the Republican Party’s foreign policy echoes the time of Ronald Reagan when the country used its military and economic power to combat communism abroad. “In the past, Republicans opposed communism and thugs like Vladimir Putin, but it’s a shame that not all Republicans oppose what Russia is doing in Ukraine”, said Gunner Ramer, a representative of the Republicans for Ukraine group.
The favourite argument of those opposing aid to Ukraine – the issue of corruption – has recently been added to manipulations concerning the oppression of religious freedoms in light of the first reading approval of Ukrainian bill 8371. This bill restricts the activities of religious organisations whose management centres in countries that are engaged in armed aggression against Ukraine. In short, the bill prohibits the Ukrainian Orthodox Church of the Moscow Patriarchate, which, according to the SBU and British intelligence services, played a certain role in the preparation and support of Russian armed aggression against Ukraine.
The editors of the Ukrainian service Voice of America have learned that the Moscow-affiliated church has hired American lobbyists to protect its interests. The ultimate goal of this collaboration is to pressure the Ukrainian parliament to withdraw the bill.
Potential Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy and Senator Rand Paul are among the politicians speculating on this issue to justify the refusal of aid to Ukraine. Additionally, conservative political commentator Tucker Carlson is also making unfounded accusations against Ukraine regarding an alleged violation of religious freedom.
What do American voters think?
It’s important not to forget that the mood of their voters influences both Republicans and Democrats.
Last year, during meetings with Ukrainian delegations in Congress, it was often said that if issues like gas prices, inflation, or other domestic policy matters became more important to the American people than aid to Ukraine, lawmakers would not go against their constituents. Some Americans believe that “wasting” money on war is unwise when the country has massive debt and there is no clear objective that would signify the end of the conflict.
A November-December 2023 survey by the Pew Research Center revealed that about 31% of Americans, mostly Republicans, believe that the United States provides too much aid to Ukraine in its struggle against Russia. 29% think the U.S. provides as much as needed, and 18% feel that the amount of aid is insufficient.
At the same time, only one-third of Americans, mostly Democrats, believe that the Russian aggression in Ukraine poses a significant threat to US interests. It’s worth noting that at the beginning of the large-scale invasion, this opinion was shared by 50% of Americans. Instead, discontent with the actions of the Biden Administration is increasing. Partially, the Ukrainian issue is a victim of voters’ critical attitude toward the president and his domestic policy.
54% of Americans believe that the United States should support Ukraine in restoring territorial integrity, even if it leads to a prolonged conflict. In August 2022, they were 66%. Also, 43% believe that the United States should contribute to ending the war as quickly as possible, even if Ukraine loses its territories. Most of them are Republicans and politically unaffiliated individuals.
What could be done about this?
It’s too early to panic. True democracy is often characterised by various opinions and a lively political life. But it’s a strong warning signal for Ukraine, which will increasingly struggle to maintain attention and a positive image in the absence of major victories on the battlefield and in the fight against corruption during the U.S. presidential election. Already now, the message regarding aid “as long as necessary” has been replaced with “as long as we can”.
It must be understood that this will not be an easy task. Ukrainians managed to mobilise American aid so quickly last year, thanks to their courage and the quality of their speeches. During that period, the Russian military’s actions were a shocking topic on all television channels. The United States and its both parties had a common interest in reducing their military resources and minimizing the loss of American lives. This strategy weakened the second-largest army in the world and demonstrated Russia’s weakness. Today marks the beginning of another intense battle for the White House, where anything goes in the realm of political technology.
Amid promises of unwavering support against Russian aggression from Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, the new Speaker of the House, Mike Johnson, accused the White House of not having a sufficiently clear of the American path to victory in Ukraine. For now, there is no consensus on the meaning of the term “Ukraine’s victory.” Recently, President Biden stated, “Ukraine has persevered and continues to be strong and free, and that is already a victory”.
In the event of Donald Trump’s victory, which is not impossible to imagine, predicting the course of events becomes challenging. Trump stated at some point that peace could be achieved in 24 hours. However, at what cost and for how long? This question remains rhetorical. What will he do if Russia refuses to negotiate or proposes unacceptable conditions?
The views of various Republican presidential candidates vary. Vivek Ramaswamy opposes support for Ukraine, while Florida Governor Ron DeSantis calls for an increased role for Europe. Former U.S. Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley, who even sympathises with the Democrats, and former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie strongly support Ukraine. In general, isolationist attitudes have always been observed in the United States among a portion of the population, and the rise of populism is a global phenomenon. In the United States, populism is not limited to supporters of “Make America Great Again” (MAGA) but is evident across the entire political spectrum, up to the far left, which has proposed giving up Ukrainian territories in exchange for a quick peace.
Will Ukraine suddenly lose its aid? Certainly not. However, the amount of aid will decrease, and additional lobbying efforts will be needed. Everyone has long known who is on the wrong side of history here. However, the politics of “values” will gradually give way to Realpolitik, which will determine important decisions made in relations between Ukraine and the United States, whose aid has been and remains crucial to countering Russia’s attempts not only to destroy Ukraine but also to completely change the world order.
