What do the shifts in Russian leadership signify? And who exactly is Andrey Belousov? These questions have taken centre stage across global media this Monday. The Ukrainian Week has curated a concise summary of viewpoints and articles on the matter.
“To leave in order to stay. Such is the fate of Sergei Shoigu,” suggests the French daily newspaper Les Echos. Magazine’s analysts view this as the Kremlin’s intricate strategy concerning the Ministry of Defense leadership. “Sergei Shoigu will now assume a different yet equally critical role. By presidential decree on Sunday, he was appointed as the secretary of the Security Council,” specifies the media. Les Echos labels Andrey Belousov’s appointment as minister as ‘a complete surprise.’ “It’s unclear whether he collaborated with the special services, but he is also affiliated with the siloviki [collective Russian noun to describe Russian law enforcement authorities – ed.],” notes Les Echos. “Back in 2014, he was the sole figure from the president’s inner circle who leaned towards liberal economic circles while supporting the annexation of Crimea.” The publication highlights Belousov’s appearance on EU sanctions lists since the onset of the full-scale Russian war in Ukraine. Despite his reputation as a ‘meticulous, professional, with close ties to small and medium-sized businesses’ official, “some of the enterprises he managed also found themselves embroiled in economic and legal scandals,” according to the French economic media.
“Recently, Sergei Shoigu’s reputation has taken a noticeable hit,” reports the French daily newspaper Le Figaro. “He has been conspicuously absent from media portrayals as the ‘president’s closest confidant,’ known for their shared mountain hikes or fishing outings. The once-resolute image of the defence minister has been marred by his involvement with Prigozhin, the deceased leader of the Wagner mercenaries’ detachment, who vocally criticised Shoigu […]. According to Sergey Markov, a political analyst affiliated with the Kremlin, the appointment of Andrey Belousov as the head of the Ministry of Defense serves as a clear signal about the imperative to ‘combat corruption and reduce the influence of personal connections’, which have proliferated within the Russian Ministry of Defense.”
Mark Esper, former US Secretary of Defense in the Trump administration, shared his views with CNN, highlighting that despite Sergei Shoigu’s frequent portrayal in military garb, he is fundamentally a civilian figure: “He’s likely more civilian than military.” Shoigu’s rank as a general stems from his administrative roles rather than direct combat experience. Esper emphasised the significance of the Kremlin’s assertion that the Russian economy is transitioning to a wartime posture, stressing the necessity for the new minister to bring innovative approaches. Nonetheless, Esper anticipates that in the future, the motivations behind the reshuffling within the Russian government will become more apparent.
Another CNN report highlights that the announcement of the defence minister’s change followed “the arrest last month of one of Shoigu’s close allies, deputy defence minister Timur Ivanov, who was charged with taking a bribe in what was the country’s highest-profile corruption scandal since Putin launched his full invasion of Ukraine more than two years ago.”
In an article titled “Sergei Shoigu’s sacking points to yet more attrition in Ukraine,” The Economist, a British publication, observes that Vladimir Putin has typically shown reluctance towards making significant changes within his team. Therefore, the news of Shoigu’s dismissal came as a considerable surprise. The publication cites analyst Alexandra Prokopenko from the Carnegie Center, who notes that Belousov has never been known for his politically moderate views. “The new appointment further signals Putin’s commitment to his strategy of attrition warfare,” writes The Economist. “The Russian president remains convinced that he can outlast Ukraine and its Western allies. This approach has already yielded dividends, particularly in the production of certain types of weaponry.” The publication also cites political analyst and former Kremlin advisor Konstantin Kalachyov, who suggests that the appointment serves as a “clear indication that the conflict is both serious and protracted,” with the Kremlin banking on “Ukraine’s allies growing weary before they do.”
The Economist reported that a Kremlin source has stated that the recent change in Russia’s defence minister will not have any effect on ongoing combat operations, particularly in the Kharkiv region of northeastern Ukraine. The source claims that President Putin has already removed the former defense minister from many operational discussions and is now preferring direct daily contact with Valery Gerasimov, his chief general. There are rumours that Gerasimov may be replaced soon. The source added that the former defence minister, Shoigu, had personal ambitions and a desire to be involved in operational matters, which led to his resignation. “The new minister will not have ambitions to manage front-line troops. He will do what a defence minister should do,” the source explained to The Economist.
“The dismissal of Shoigu is a sign that the Russian president does not see his position as strong as many in the West perceive it. It’s another reason to continue aiding Ukraine,” writes Nicholas Busse in his commentary for the German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung. “On Sunday evening, a stark reminder emerged of the limited understanding the West possesses regarding the inner workings of the Putin regime. The abrupt resignation of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu unfolded amidst a period where numerous observers perceived Russia to be gaining ground, both militarily in Ukraine and politically with its Western allies, who are grappling with the prolonged nature of the conflict. Putin’s decision to oust one of his closest and most longstanding allies from a pivotal role suggests a lack of confidence in his own position, even hinting at perceived threats. Historically reluctant to part ways with key figures, this move signifies potential concerns over either internal dissent or setbacks on the battlefield,” writes Busse. “While signs of internal discord remain elusive, the likelihood of changes stemming from apprehension over battlefield losses appears more plausible. According to Busse, Putin’s reshuffling of key political figures underscores a heightened seriousness towards procuring arms from the West, a stance often overlooked by many European or American politicians. This underscores the importance of maintaining support for Ukraine without assuming that time is favouring Putin’s agenda, contrary to popular belief,” concludes the FAZ journalist.
According to Russian opposition media, Meduza, a source close to the Russian government, believes that the decisive factor in Shoigu’s resignation was his conflict with Sergei Chemezov, the head of Rostec, one of the main suppliers to the Russian army. According to them, over the past few months, the minister has regularly complained to Putin about delays in arms deliveries, as well as the fact that the most advanced weapons were not even reaching the front lines. In early May, the conflict became public. Initially, Shoigu openly demanded that the defence industry increase deliveries to the front lines; Chemezov responded by stating that Rostec was supplying the Ministry of Defense with everything it needed.
Meduza’s sources within the army leadership add that these efforts are coupled with dissatisfaction towards Shoigu within the army: “He is neither a strategist nor a military commander. He is a businessman pretending to be one.” The acquaintances of the new minister, Andrei Belousov, indeed often describe him as a government official untouched by corruption. The official has never been involved in highly publicized corruption investigations or scandals and generally appears to have “no blemishes in his biography, no real estate in Nice, no yacht, and no offshore accounts.” However, Belousov has a 29-year-old son, Pavel, whose company earns money through government contracts. “In 2015, Pavel Belousov and his wife Yevgeniya registered Claire & Clarte LLC; they are its sole co-owners and managers. The company’s website indicates that its main services are ‘engineering consulting’ and ‘digitisation,’ and lists the Ministry of Industry and Trade and the state-owned companies Rostec and Rosatom as clients,” reports Meduza.
At the same time, the Latvian newspaper Delfi is doubtful about the new Russian minister’s prospects. Experts and sources from this media outlet in Moscow believe that this new appointment strengthens the influence of civilian bureaucracy. “This is an appointment based on the principle of personal loyalty. Beloousov is understandable to Putin; he has a good track record,” explains Igor Lipsits, a Russian economist in exile and one of the founders of the Higher School of Economics, based in Moscow, to Delfi. “This means that Putin has no one else left. This man understands nothing about the military, he has never served, this sphere is foreign to him, and he is foreign to it.” It is worth noting that no military officer has been appointed to head the Russian Ministry of Defense since 2001.
