Two weeks ago, Cyril Ramaphosa was inaugurated as President of South Africa. On June 14, the newly elected parliament re-elected him for a second term. For the first time since the end of apartheid in 1994, the African National Congress (ANC) did not win a majority in the parliamentary elections, receiving only 40% of the vote. South Africa will now be governed by a coalition “Government of National Unity,” comprising the ANC, the Democratic Alliance (22%), and the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP, 4%). Both the Democratic Alliance and IFP, along with several smaller parties in the coalition, recognise Russia as an aggressor, potentially strengthening Ukrainian-South African relations. Pro-Russian parties, “Umkhonto we Sizwe” (15%) and the “Economic Freedom Fighters” (10%), refused to join the coalition. On June 15-16, a South African delegation attended the Global Peace Forum, led by National Security Advisor Sydney Mufamadi, but did not sign the joint communiqué.
New Government of National Unity
The national elections on May 29, 2024, were nearly catastrophic for the ANC, the “Party of Nelson Mandela,” which had dominated since 1994. This time, the ANC received only 40.21% of the vote and 159 out of 400 seats in the National Assembly. A total of 52 parties participated, with 18 securing at least one seat.
The 2024 elections also saw the lowest voter turnout since 1994, at 59%. Despite some organisational issues, observers generally deemed the elections free and fair. After the results were announced, President and ANC leader Cyril Ramaphosa humorously accepted the outcome: “These elections clearly show the expectations of South Africans for political leaders to work together.”
The ANC faced significant distrust due to the decline of Africa’s most industrialised economy over the past decade. Power and transportation disruptions have hampered production, while poverty, unemployment (over 40% among youth), and crime remain unresolved. Numerous corruption scandals and the ANC’s inadequate response in addressing and punishing officials involved have also fueled negative sentiment.
After the election results were announced, President Ramaphosa called for a national unity government, uniting all parties with parliamentary seats. This isn’t the country’s first experience with such a coalition. From 1994 to 1999, South Africa had a national unity government with the ANC, the National Party, and the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP) joining forces after the first democratic elections post-apartheid to prevent political instability.
Political Context and Positions of Major Parties
The ANC needed at least 41 more votes in the National Assembly to form a governing coalition. By partnering with the Democratic Alliance (87 seats) and the Inkatha Freedom Party (17 seats), both of which are pro-Ukrainian, the ANC secured the coalition. The Patriotic Alliance (9 seats) focused on domestic policy, and several smaller parties joined. This national unity coalition now holds 258 out of 400 seats in parliament. Further examination is needed to understand better the influences on foreign policy, particularly regarding Ukraine.
African National Congress (ANC)
The African National Congress (ANC) emerged from the liberation movement against apartheid and has governed South Africa since Nelson Mandela’s election in 1994. This movement included people from various ideological backgrounds, often resulting in the ANC’s inability to take definitive stances due to prolonged internal debates.
On February 24, 2022, South Africa’s Minister of International Relations and Cooperation, Naledi Pandor, clearly called on Russia to cease its aggression and “immediately withdraw its troops from Ukraine in accordance with the UN Charter.” However, on the same day, Defence Minister Thandi Modise attended a celebration drinking champagne at the Russian embassy. Since February 25, 2022, South Africa has avoided labelling Russia as an aggressor. Despite not retracting the initial statement from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, joint military exercises with Russia and China on the anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have raised concerns both internationally and domestically.
Naledi Pandor explained that she cannot ignore her party members’ sentiments towards Russia. Many ANC members hold an idealised view of the Soviet Union and maintain close ties with Russia, as they were educated there or collaborated during the fight against apartheid. The Soviet Union’s support during South Africa’s difficult times fosters a positive perspective that hinders seeing Russia as an aggressor.
Although many ANC representatives studied in Ukraine rather than Russia, support for the Soviet Union remains associated with Moscow. Notably, between 1963 and 1965, over 328 ANC activists, including figures like Joe Modise, Moses Mabhida, and the still-influential Ronnie Kasrils, were trained in Odesa. Sindiso Mfenyana, the first black secretary of Parliament, considered Kyiv his second home.
In addition to this emotional attachment, the ANC has received funding through a joint business venture in magnesium extraction with sanctioned Russian oligarch Viktor Vekselberg since 2006. This financial support likely also influences the ANC’s stance.
A breakthrough in Ukraine-South Africa relations emerged with President Ramaphosa’s visit to Ukraine in June 2023 as part of the African peace mission. Since then, the South African delegation has consistently attended meetings on the Ukrainian peace formula and plans to participate in the Global Peace Summit in Switzerland.
The African peace mission also visited St. Petersburg, where Ramaphosa urged Putin to return forcibly deported Ukrainian children. During the Russia-Africa Summit in July 2023, Ramaphosa declined Putin’s offer of free grain and instead called for restoring the grain corridor. It was no surprise to Ukrainians that the Russian president ignored his South African counterpart’s request.
Democratic Alliance (DA)
The Democratic Alliance (DA) is a liberal party that has governed the Western Cape province since 2009, where it is known for high-quality public services and effective local governance. The DA openly condemns Russian aggression against Ukraine and has actively criticised the South African government’s stance of non-alignment in the face of blatant violations of international law. Party leader John Steenhuisen became the first South African politician to visit Ukraine in May 2022.
Russian propaganda exploits the traumas of racial segregation in South African society to manipulate public opinion, attempting to create the impression that only white South Africans support Ukraine. Despite this, a survey shows that 74.3% of South Africans view Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as an “act of aggression that should be condemned.” DA leaders have faced criticism for their stance, but the party remains firm.
Initially formed as an opposition to the ANC, the DA ran a controversial campaign ad depicting the burning of the South African flag to symbolise the country’s destruction under continued ANC rule. Despite this, the DA decided to cooperate with the ANC in a coalition government after the elections, overcoming numerous ideological and strategic differences.
Umkhonto we Sizwe (uMkontho weSizwe Party, MK)
A potential coalition partner for the ANC could have been Umkhonto we Sizwe, a party formed only on December 16, 2023, which sensationally garnered 15% of the vote in these elections. It was led and popularized by South Africa’s third president, Jacob Zuma, who remained a member of the ANC despite leading the new party. De facto, Zuma is the sole “decision-making centre” in the newly formed party and was the “face of the party” on the ballot.
The newly formed party adopted the historical name of the ANC’s armed wing, “Umkhonto we Sizwe,” which translates to “Spear of the Nation.” During the 2024 election campaign, the ANC sued the newly formed party for using the movement’s name, which is part of the ANC. However, the court dismissed the request to prohibit the new party from using the historical name. Jacob Zuma has his own motivation for returning to power — amending the constitution to eliminate the independence of the judiciary. It was a ruling by the Constitutional Court of South Africa that prevented him from running for the newly formed parliament due to a previous 2021 conviction, which sentenced him to 15 months in prison on corruption charges.
However, perhaps the most painful blow for Zuma was the decision by the South African High Court on April 26, 2017, to cancel the agreement between South Africa and Russia to build a nuclear power plant. Jacob Zuma personally negotiated the construction of the new nuclear power plant with his “friend” Vladimir Putin, whom he frequently visited in Russia. The nuclear plant agreement was signed in violation of South African law and was kept secret in South Africa. Zuma had to change five energy ministers and several finance ministers to implement it. Still, four years of legal proceedings initiated by public environmental organisations led to the court’s decision to cancel the agreement entirely.
Jacob Zuma remains a powerful centre of Russian influence in South Africa. Therefore, it is not surprising that in July 2023, a few months before the creation of the new political party, he was treated in Russia during a “medical leave” from prison. Moreover, MK’s election campaign had much in common with Russian methods: mobilising the sentiments of the “aggrieved” and undermining state institutions.
Despite all the accusations against its leader, including receiving financial benefits from state enterprises and spending the state budget on personal needs, the MK party has significant support in the KwaZulu-Natal province and will influence South African politics.
Fighters for Economic Freedom (BES)
The Democratic Alliance (DA) is a liberal party that has governed the Western Cape province since 2009, known for its high-quality public services and effective local governance. The DA openly condemns Russian aggression against Ukraine and has criticised the South African government’s stance of non-alignment in the face of international law violations. Party leader John Steenhuisen was the first South African politician to visit Ukraine in May 2022.
Russian propaganda exploits the traumas of racial segregation in South African society to manipulate public opinion, attempting to create the impression that only white South Africans support Ukraine. Despite this, a survey shows that 74.3% of South Africans view Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as an “act of aggression that should be condemned.” While DA leaders have faced criticism for their stance, the party remains resolute.
Initially formed as an opposition to the ANC, the DA ran a controversial campaign ad depicting the burning of the South African flag to symbolise the country’s destruction under continued ANC rule. Despite this, the DA decided to cooperate with the ANC in a coalition government after the elections, bridging numerous ideological and strategic differences.
Will the ANC’s position on Ukraine change?
Despite the ANC’s invitation for all political parties to join a government of national unity, the most pro-Russian parties, MK and BES, declined participation. BES representatives stated they would only cooperate if the ANC leader were not Ramaphosa, while MK refused to recognise the election results and filed a lawsuit to block parliament from convening.
Consequently, the Democratic Alliance (22%) and Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP, 4%) emerged as the ANC’s primary coalition partners, both firmly endorsing the recognition of Russia as an aggressor. This stance could shape South Africa’s foreign policy direction. However, the influence of pro-Russian factions, particularly within the largest political force in the new coalition, remains significant, and future government actions will hinge on domestic political compromises.
At the critical Peace Summit for Ukraine, the ANC delegation was led by Sydney Mufamadi, the President’s advisor on national security, who attended meetings under the Ukrainian peace formula. However, Mufamadi declined to sign the Summit communiqué and issued an official statement that diverged significantly from acknowledging Russian aggression and the destructive war Russia is waging against Ukraine. According to Mufamadi, the ANC questions Israel’s participation in the Peace Summit and criticises the limited ban on nuclear weapons, specifically in the Ukrainian context. Regrettably, Mufamadi did not provide clarity on progress regarding the repatriation of Ukrainian children, as previously mentioned by President Ramaphosa in July 2023.
This stance aligns with that of the ANC, the largest political party, but is expected to evolve following the formation of a new coalition government. The coalition agreement broadly outlines foreign policy, leaving uncertainty about its practical implementation. Nonetheless, including diverse parties in the government is anticipated to enhance transparency and accountability.
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The article was prepared for the project titled “Advocating for Ukraine Globally through Cooperation between Analytical Centers and Universities,” which was initiated by the Ilko Kucheriv Democratic Initiatives Foundation and supported by the Renaissance International Foundation.
