Shocked by Hamas’s sudden border raid and the brutal murder of Israeli civilians in early October, many observers expressed their support for Israel. Consequently, for the US and its allies there are two major conflicts to deal with now. Emboldened by the new Moscow-Tehran-Pyongyang axis and Beijing’s blessing, Hamas seems to have carefully crafted its act of terror, leaving Israel in a very difficult situation where Syria, Hezbollah and Iran all seem to be very eager to get involved should Israel carry out a ground invasion of the Gaza strip.
Meanwhile, the newly formed axis has greatly benefited the Kremlin, whose leader has been begging for support from Iran and North Korea. Alas, Russia got it from both. Putin’s visit to China and Russian minister of foreign affairs Lavrov’s visit to Pyongyang have further cemented the formation of the new alliance. The axis of hyper-authoritarian regimes who have abandoned all attempts to return to a ‘normal’ state of affairs with the West. And despite all three being sanctioned and significantly isolated by the world community, the strengthening of this alliance has demonstrated regimes’ belief that they can exist in parallel to the democratic world, relatively unharmed and protected by China.
In order to divert the Western world’s attention from Ukraine, Russia is hoping to catch a breather in the war. And even though globally speaking, Russia’s economic power is minuscule, rest assured that it’s using all of its diplomatic, military and economic power to create instabilities wherever it can. This became possible through Iran, Russia’s powerful Middle Eastern ally. As Iran contemplates on whether it is worth being ‘directly’ involved in the Israeli-Palestinian war, ultimately, the test is really for the United States and its allies. And while dictatorships like Iran, Russia and North Korea can afford to spend their resources on creating wars and instabilities in neighbouring countries, democracies are forced to tread more carefully, as any resulting domestic hardships may bring isolationist populists (promising short-term increases in living standards, but long-term doom) to power – effectively putting an end to support for far-away democracies like Ukraine or Israel.
And while it is evident that this new axis acts under the guidance of China and it is China that has been rallying the global south against what it calls ‘Western hegemony’, China has not received much blame. Despite the obvious malicious intent, the dots have still not been connected properly here. And while economic sanctions on Russia and Iran have proved not to be very costly for the West, China, despite being the de-facto protector of North Korea and Russia, would be different. The issue is that any confrontation with China, first and foremost – economic, would entail incredibly high costs and significantly reduce the living standards of many western nations. A politically risky move for any government in a democracy. And although the idea to oppose China actively rather than passively, or not at all, would find many sympathisers, few leaders in the West, if any, would ever attempt such a strategy. Moreover, it is highly likely that soon after its implementation, the idea would not be popular at all due to its serious impact and severe consequences. Hence, sanctions and subsequent isolation have only been directed at China’s satellites so far. Another question is, how far Americans and Europeans are willing to ‘tighten their belts’ to confront Russia or groups like Hamas as they are, let alone openly consider confrontation with China.
As the world grows increasingly bipolar – everything is revolving around the West in its confrontation with China (in reality, more multipolar, as many economic powers in the global south such as India, are in an orbit of their own) – it will become increasingly difficult and costly to avoid confronting alliances like North Korea-Russia-Iran. Axes like this will become more and more confident and secure in their separated, protected bubble, while pouring resources into the demolition of international law and destruction of the world order. As the authoritarian axis under the China’s peaceful guise advances on the world, it is up to those, who have been very risk-averse since the fall of the Soviet Union, to prevent and contain the spread of previously unrestrained authoritarianism, which is an existential threat to not only Ukraine or Israel, but to the democratic world as a whole.
