Recently, the Russian Ministry of Defence made an announcement regarding the unilateral decision by Russian authorities to alter the maritime borders with Lithuania and Finland in the Baltic Sea. As reported by The Moscow Times, referring to a draft resolution by the Russian government, this adjustment pertains to an area in the eastern Gulf of Finland, as well as near the cities of Baltiysk and Zelenogradsk in the Kaliningrad region. However, within just a day, on Wednesday, 22nd May, the draft resolution vanished from the regulatory acts portal. What implications do these manoeuvres by the Kremlin carry?
According to a document that has since been removed (although still accessible on the archive.is website), Russian authorities had outlined plans to adjust coordinates along the border with Finland. This adjustment was set to cover the Jahi, Sommers, Hogland, Rodsher, Maly Tyuters, and Vigrund islands, as well as the vicinity of the northern entrance cape of the Narva River. Along the border with Lithuania, the proposed adjustments included areas such as the Curonian Spit, Cape Taran, its southern counterpart, and the Baltic Spit. Despite the subsequent removal of the proposal from the Russian government’s website, its announcement stirred active discussion and concern, especially among Russia’s Baltic neighbours.
Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis described this as another instance of Russia’s hybrid operations. He emphasized that Russia aims to sow fear, uncertainty, and doubt about its intentions in the Baltic Sea. This represents a clear escalation against NATO and the EU, demanding a resolute response,” Landsbergis stated. Echoing Landsbergis’s concerns, German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius remarked, “Whatever this entails, it appears to be another manifestation of Putin’s deceitful brand of hybrid warfare.
In response, Finnish Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen emphasised that Russia is bound to adhere to provisions concerning maritime zones as a signatory to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. She asserted, ‘Creating confusion is a tactic of hybrid influence. Finland remains steadfast and will not be intimidated.’ Later, in remarks reported by Bloomberg, Valtonen clarified that Finland views such actions by Russia as ‘routine checks of coordinates,’ permissible under the UN Charter. Therefore, she stressed, ‘There is no basis for speculation at this time.’
Charlie Salonius-Pasternak from the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, quoted by the BBC, observed that the Russian plan appears to be a bureaucratic, technical exercise. ‘However,’ he noted, ‘this aligns with a typical Russian approach: probing various areas and, if met with resistance, dismissing significance.’
Previously, the Baltic countries, supported by other European states, including the United Kingdom, Germany, and France, warned that Russia might attack one of them within the next few years. However, last month, Finnish President Alexander Stubb told the Financial Times that such an attack is “highly unlikely”, though Finland and NATO must still prepare for it.
Putin wants to control the Baltic Sea
Micael Bydén, the Supreme Commander of the Swedish Armed Forces, highlighted in an interview with the German publication Redaktionsnetzwerk Deutschland that Putin’s aim is to assert control over the Baltic Sea. According to Bydén, this extends beyond Sweden’s heavily fortified island of Gotland, fortified since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, to include the Åland archipelago.
“The Russians are closely monitoring activities at the Baltic Sea’s entrances and exits. It’s as crucial to Putin as it is to us that the sea remains open and secure,” Bydén stressed. “If Russia gains control and obstructs the Baltic Sea, it will profoundly impact life in Sweden and neighbouring countries. We cannot allow this. The Baltic Sea shouldn’t become Putin’s playground, where he bullies NATO members.”
The Swedish official stressed the strategic importance of Gotland, asserting that control over the island equates to control over the Baltic Sea. Consequently, Sweden has bolstered its defences on the island with permanently stationed units and stands ready to deploy additional forces should the situation escalate. “If necessary, we can use Gotland for offensive operations. Moreover, we can provide support to other NATO countries in the Baltic Sea, ensuring their safety,” noted the Supreme Commander of the Swedish Armed Forces. “However, if Putin were to seize the island, he could threaten NATO countries via sea, jeopardising peace and stability in the Northern and Baltic regions.”
Furthermore, he highlighted the threat posed by Russian oil tankers in the Baltic Sea, particularly to Europe’s environment. “These ageing vessels, often concealing their Russian origin by not flying the Russian flag, pose a significant risk due to their poor maintenance. Russia could cause an environmental catastrophe right on our doorstep, disguising it as an accident. The environmental repercussions would be catastrophic,” warned Micael Bydén.
Simultaneously, he pointed out that the Russians could utilise these ships for warfare against NATO in various ways. “For Russia, disguising themselves as old oil tankers offers an ideal means of stealth. They could employ these vessels for eavesdropping on our communications, clandestine transportation, or even underwater sabotage,” added the Supreme Commander of the Swedish Armed Forces.
Meanwhile, the German publication Bild reports that Colonel Magnus Frykvall, commander of the “Gotland” battalion, also confirms the reality of this threat. Additionally, former Latvian Defence Minister and head of the analytical centre “Northern Europe Policy Centre for Defence and Security,” Artis Pabriks, informed German journalists that Moscow must understand that every inch of territory, whether at sea or on land, will be defended. “This could potentially lead to a conflict wherein Russia targets the Swedish island of Gotland. We must prevent this with a resolute ‘no’ right from the outset,” he asserted.
