After months of behind-the-scenes negotiations and a reshuffling of candidates, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has unveiled her new team of commissioners. The European Parliament is set to vote on the nominees following a series of hearings scheduled to commence in October. Given the history of previous formations of the EU’s executive body, it is likely that the final list of commissioners will differ from the current slate. Nonetheless, overarching trends, particularly in terms of support for Ukraine, are already emerging and becoming increasingly apparent.
Since her first term in office, Ursula von der Leyen has been an unwavering advocate for Ukraine, a stance that remains resolute. This commitment is palpably reflected in the slate of nominees for the new European Commission.
Several candidates from the Baltic states have been appointed to pivotal positions overseeing relations with Russia. Estonia’s Kaja Kallas, the newly appointed head of the EU’s foreign policy service, emerges as one of the bloc’s most vocal critics of the Kremlin. She stands out among European politicians who harbour no illusions about Putin’s expansionist ambitions and the intricate trade ties with Moscow.
In December 2023, Kallas highlighted the imperative of establishing a special tribunal to hold accountable those responsible for Russia’s war against Ukraine. Furthermore, in March of this year, she called on her European and NATO partners to bolster defence spending to deter a potential Russian attack, which could be provoked by any perceived weakness. Meanwhile, her Finnish counterpart, Henna Virkkunen, has been nominated for the role of Executive Vice-President for technological sovereignty, security, and democracy.
The newly established role of Commissioner for Defence has garnered significant attention, reflecting the evolving challenges confronting Europe. This position has been filled by former Lithuanian Prime Minister Andrius Kubilius, a staunch advocate for Ukraine who champions a tougher stance against the Kremlin. Notably, he is a co-author of the European Plan for Ukraine, introduced in 2017.
As highlighted by Politico, during his tenure in the European Parliament as the rapporteur on relations with Russia, Kubilius underscored the necessity of sustained military support for Ukraine, proposing that Western allies contribute 0.25 per cent of their GDP to bolster efforts against Putin on the battlefield.
Additionally, Kubilius has urged that Moscow should be held accountable for the reconstruction of Ukraine by tapping into all frozen Russian assets, rather than merely relying on the profits generated from them. In a proactive move, he suggested in Vilnius the creation of a dedicated government department or ministry focused exclusively on Ukraine-related issues.
New European Commission: challenges for Ukraine’s EU membership
The next five years are set to be critical for the EU’s expansion, prompting Ursula von der Leyen to appoint a special envoy for enlargement. This role has been entrusted to Marta Kos, a leftist from Slovenia, who, while generally supportive of Ukraine, has also issued remarks with a conciliatory tone towards Moscow.
Ursula von der Leyen has confirmed that Kos will oversee the membership applications of Ukraine and Moldova, among other responsibilities. Given the delicacy of her position, Kos’s comments regarding Ukraine are likely to come under intense scrutiny during the four-hour hearings in the European Parliament for each EU membership candidate, as noted by Politico.
“The comments are sure to get close attention in Kyiv and Chișinău, where officials are concerned their applications could languish for years or decades.,” the publication observes.
Kos may also face challenges in addressing inquiries about her professional history, particularly concerning recent allegations linking her to the secret police of former Yugoslavia from over three decades ago, despite her denial of ever acting as an informant. Furthermore, she recently served as Slovenia’s ambassador to Germany and Switzerland from 2013 to 2020, resigning amid complaints from embassy staff regarding mismanagement.
Meanwhile, a spokesperson for the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry emphasised that Kyiv would prioritise the actions of officials over their words.
“We always look at what people do, not what they say. Naturally, when there are certain sayings contradictory to our interests or disrespectful to Ukraine, we react, but our primary goal is to look at actions, not words,” Heorhii Tykhyi told Politico.
The incoming European Commission is poised to begin its duties by year’s end, with one of its first responsibilities being to assess the outcomes of the U.S. presidential elections in November. Meanwhile, Reuters notes that a second term for Donald Trump could have significant repercussions for Western unity in supporting Ukraine against Russia’s invasion and could exacerbate trade relations between Brussels and Washington.
Therefore, to demonstrate its serious commitment to geopolitical responsibilities, the European Union must ensure that the next European Commission adopts a proactive stance on security. This includes developing robust strategies to bolster Ukraine’s position, effectively deterring any potential resurgence of conflict with Russia in the years to come. By taking decisive action now, the EU can reinforce its role as a key player on the global stage and reassure allies of its dedication to stability and security in the region.
