Narendra Modi’s recent visits to Kyiv and Warsaw have been hailed as “historic,” marking the first time an Indian Prime Minister has set foot in independent Ukraine and post-communist Poland. Yet, beyond the ceremonial significance, what tangible outcomes did this diplomatic journey deliver for Ukraine? And is it truly as emblematic as the timing suggests?
“I’ve had the good fortune of being the first in many places,” quipped Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi during his meeting with the Indian diaspora in Poland on July 21. His remark alluded to this visit—the first by an Indian leader in 45 years—but that wasn’t the whole story. Earlier in July, Modi made his inaugural visit to Austria in over four decades, and on August 23, Ukraine’s Flag Day, he arrived in Kyiv. This marked another first since the two nations established diplomatic relations. But did it produce results worthy of its historic label?
Bloody embrace
Since the onset of the Russo-Ukrainian war, India’s stance has been notably ambiguous, at times even perceived as leaning towards Russia. Despite this, Ukraine has maintained bilateral relations, albeit not always actively. Trade between the two nations has grown steadily over the past decade, reaching its peak in 2021, just before the full-scale invasion. Yet, cooperation at the political level has lagged significantly behind. Political communication has been revitalised in the past three years, primarily through phone calls and informal “sideline” meetings.
The extent of this political inertia is starkly illustrated by the 13-year gap between the last two rounds of formal political consultations—the most recent, held last year, was preceded by a round in 2010. A similar pattern of neglect is evident in high-level diplomatic visits: prior to Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba’s visit in March, no Ukrainian foreign minister had set foot in New Delhi for nearly seven years.
In this context, the annual summits between Narendra Modi and Vladimir Putin—halted only by the full-scale invasion of Ukraine—once signalled a clear political alignment. Yet, foreign policy, especially India’s, is far more intricate than it may first appear. Despite the web of agreements, treaties, and the dependency on Russian arms, alongside a “special and privileged strategic partnership” (a term formalised in 2010), New Delhi had already begun reducing its reliance on the Kremlin as early as 2014, following Russia’s initial aggression in Ukraine. This shift has only accelerated with the escalation of the conflict, bolstered by deepening ties with U.S. and European partners.
Prime Minister Modi’s visit to Moscow on July 8 was ostensibly a demonstration of India’s autonomy, signalling that despite its growing closeness with the West, India retains the freedom to engage with any global player it chooses. However, the timing of the visit—coinciding with yet another egregious act by the Kremlin, seemingly aimed at portraying New Delhi as unequivocally pro-Russian—served to expedite India’s decision to further distance itself from Moscow’s influence.
European shift
A key feature of India’s foreign policy under Narendra Modi has been the deepening of ties with EU nations. Take, for instance, the burgeoning relationship between New Delhi and Rome, where trade soared to an unprecedented €15 billion in 2022. The growing rapport between the two countries has even sparked lighthearted quips among journalists, who have coined the term “Melodi”—a playful portmanteau of the leaders’ surnames, Meloni and Modi. This catchy nickname underscores the evident political “chemistry” between the two figures, symbolising the closer alignment between their nations.
New Delhi has also ramped up its engagement with Central European nations. In January, during Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala’s visit to India, the two countries inked a strategic partnership focused on innovation. Similarly, during a stop in Warsaw, which came just before his trip to Kyiv, Prime Minister Modi and his Polish counterpart agreed to elevate their bilateral ties to a strategic level. Modi further extended an invitation to Polish entrepreneurs, encouraging them to participate in the “Make in India” initiative—a move aimed at fostering local enterprise in India and producing goods for the global market. Modi’s visit to Kyiv, however, should be assessed more for its concrete outcomes than for any lofty rhetoric about peace.
Peace talks or economic opportunities?
“India has never been neutral. It has always stood on the side of peace,” Narendra Modi asserted during his meeting with Volodymyr Zelensky. In the lead-up to and during his visit, there was much speculation about India’s potential role as a mediator in the Russo-Ukrainian war or its contributions to securing peace in Ukraine. However, when we delve into the tangible outcomes, much of the talk about peace seems more rhetorical than substantive. The real significance lies in the specific actions and agreements reached both before and during Modi’s visit to Kyiv.
For example, on August 20th, just three days prior to the visit, the inaugural meeting of the Ukrainian-Indian working group on cultural cooperation took place. This initiative is crucial, as deepening cultural ties is foundational to strengthening political relations. Indeed, one of the agreements signed during Modi’s time in Kyiv focused on cultural collaboration. Similarly, two other working groups—one on education and the other on pharmaceutical cooperation—convened in the days leading up to the visit, culminating in bilateral agreements on August 23rd. These concrete steps, rather than the lofty rhetoric, underscore the visit’s true importance.
In the joint statement following the Indian Prime Minister’s visit to Ukraine, a wide spectrum of bilateral relations was outlined—spanning agriculture, the expansion of legal frameworks for mutual investment protection, the strengthening of scientific and technological cooperation, and a commitment to deepening defence collaboration. Notably, both countries expressed a shared interest in elevating their relationship from a comprehensive partnership to a strategic one in the future.
While the agreement does touch on the need for a just peace, its core is built around concrete contracts and agreements—a substance that goes beyond mere rhetoric about India’s potential role in achieving peace in Ukraine.
The timing of the Indian Prime Minister’s visit to Ukraine, coinciding with our Flag Day, carries its own subtle significance. It suggests that these bilateral relations, while likely to be intricate and challenging, hold the promise of substantial mutual benefit in the years to come.
