Latin American support: how Argentina is shifting its stance on Ukraine

PoliticsWorld
14 November 2024, 18:22

“Today, on the squares and streets of Buenos Aires, the word ‘freedom’ – libertad – was heard often. And this unites us – Ukraine and Argentina,” Volodymyr Zelensky remarked, reflecting on his participation in the inauguration of newly elected Argentine President Javier Milei on December 11, 2023.

The Ukrainian president’s visit, 12,000 kilometres away in distant Argentina amid the full-scale war, made Kyiv’s expectations for the new government clear. But after a year of cooperation, has there been any shift in Argentina’s stance? Has Ukraine managed to find, in the turbulent seas of Latin America, the stronghold it has longed for to advance its interests?

The century-long relationship between Ukraine and Argentina stands out as unique among other countries in the Western Hemisphere. Buenos Aires was the first in the region to recognise the Ukrainian People’s Republic as a free and independent state in 1921, and later, independent Ukraine on December 5, 1991. In 1993, diplomatic missions were established in both countries: the Embassy of Ukraine in Buenos Aires and the Argentine Embassy in Kyiv – the first on the territory of the former USSR.

The visits of Presidents Leonid Kuchma to Argentina in 1995 and Carlos Menem to Ukraine in 1998 marked a turning point, leading to the signing of key agreements on political, economic, and scientific-technical cooperation. For instance, Argentine experts supported the Ukrainian mission during the opening of the Akademik Vernadsky station, and the two countries explored collaboration in the space industry. In 2003 and 2007, Argentine legislative bodies passed resolutions condemning the Holodomor in Ukraine (1932–1933). However, over time, the momentum of bilateral relations slowed due to several factors, including geographical distance, internal challenges in both nations and shifting priorities in foreign policy.

Meanwhile, Russia was not idle. Having inherited the diplomatic positions and the foundation for a substantial mission from the Soviet Union, it worked to deepen its relations with Argentina at the beginning of the 21st century.

This shift began particularly after the meeting between Presidents Néstor Kirchner and Vladimir Putin at the United Nations General Assembly in 2005. In 2008, the two countries signed a Joint Declaration on Strategic Partnership, and Argentina became one of just seven Latin American countries to hold such a status with Russia. Relations between the two nations significantly improved during the presidency of Cristina de Kirchner (2007–2015). Her critical stance toward the West and her growing alignment with Russia further strengthened the partnership. In 2014, Putin visited Argentina, where he signed several agreements, including those on cooperation in telecommunications, legal assistance, and the peaceful use of nuclear energy.

During the presidency of Mauricio Macri (2015–2019), who was largely aligned with the West, Argentina continued its cooperation with Russia. In 2018, Vladimir Putin visited Argentina for the second time during the G-20 Summit. Under President Alberto Fernández (2019–2023), Argentina’s ties with Russia deepened, particularly during the pandemic, when the country purchased and began producing Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine. This was part of Moscow’s broader “vaccine diplomacy” efforts. Russia also worked to strengthen its influence in Argentina through “soft power” tactics—actively promoting cultural and informational initiatives. Through media, cultural centres, and educational programs, Russia spread its narratives, aiming to shape public opinion and sway Argentine society.

Given the context, it’s no surprise that Argentina, like many Latin American nations, opted for neutrality when voting on resolutions related to Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. Initially, Argentina supported Ukraine’s territorial integrity in the UN Security Council on 15 March 2014, but its stance shifted markedly after that. The country abstained during the General Assembly vote on Resolution 68/262, which condemned the Crimean “referendum.” This shift was shaped by multiple factors: the left-wing government of Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, eager to position itself as a regional leader critical of Western policies, and the desire to avoid straining relations with Russia. A key moment came on 25 March 2014, when Kirchner spoke with Putin, who promised to “increase trade and economic cooperation” between their countries. Since then, Argentina has consistently abstained from votes on resolutions regarding human rights and the militarisation of Crimea.

In February 2022, just before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Argentine President Alberto Fernández made a high-profile visit to Moscow, where he met with Vladimir Putin. During the visit, Fernández expressed Argentina’s willingness to expand cooperation, even offering the country as a “gateway” for Russia into Latin America. Unsurprisingly, this gesture drew sharp criticism from both the Argentine opposition and the public, especially given the growing military tension on Ukraine’s border.

When the invasion began on 24 February 2022, Argentina, like most Latin American countries, condemned Russia’s actions. However, the response was measured. Initially, President Fernández called on both sides to avoid military escalation, and it wasn’t until 28 February that Argentina officially described Russia’s actions as an “invasion.” On 2 March, Argentina voted in support of the resolution condemning Russia’s aggression in the UN General Assembly.

Argentina continued to vote in support of Ukrainian initiatives at the UN and provided humanitarian aid. However, Argentina refrained from imposing sanctions on Russia or excluding it from the G20, citing “multilateralism” and economic interests. In foreign policy, Argentina sought to maintain a de-facto neutral position, combining formal condemnation of the aggression with continued political and economic contacts with Russia.

Javier Milei’s rise to the presidency marked a turning point in Ukraine’s relationship with Argentina, especially because of his strong stance against Russian aggression.

Milei was one of the first Argentine politicians to condemn Russia’s invasion, calling on world leaders to take action and comparing it to Winston Churchill’s fight against totalitarianism. Even before he became president, as a congressman, he made a bold statement by bringing the Ukrainian flag to a parliamentary session, calling for decisive action and criticising the previous government’s passivity.

Javier Milei carrying the Ukrainian flag.

Once in office, Milei wasted no time in reshaping Argentina’s foreign policy, breathing new life into relations with Ukraine. He reached out to President Volodymyr Zelensky to discuss ways the two countries could cooperate under Ukraine’s Peace Formula, including a possible “Ukraine-Latin America” summit. When Zelensky attended Milei’s inauguration in December 2023, it was more than just a ceremonial gesture—it was a clear signal of both countries’ intent to strengthen their ties, especially in security and politics.

The new Argentinian government’s active support for Ukraine was also reflected in its work within international platforms. In 2024, Argentine representatives participated in discussions around implementing the Ukrainian Peace Formula. Despite his packed schedule and domestic political challenges, President Milei personally attended the Peace Summit in Switzerland. Argentina played a key role in advancing two key aspects of the Peace Formula: ensuring radiological and nuclear safety and supporting the restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity. Additionally, Argentina joined the International Coalition for the Return of Ukrainian Children and became a part of the Crimean Platform in September.

Ukraine has also been proactive in strengthening ties. For instance, Ukraine’s first deputy prime minister and minister of economy, Yulia Svyrydenko, visited Argentina, which led to an agreement to hold the first meeting of the Joint Intergovernmental Commission on Trade and Economic Cooperation in 18 years. Ukrainian representatives from the inter-factional parliamentary group “Ukraine – Latin American and Caribbean States” also visited Argentina, and closer collaboration has been forged at the level of the Ministries of Foreign Affairs and Defense.

The Ukrainian diaspora in Argentina has played a key role throughout the history of bilateral relations and continues to do so today. With a rich history spanning over a century and a population of around 500,000, it is one of the largest Ukrainian communities outside Ukraine. Organisations like “Prosvita,” “Vidrodzhennya,” and “Plast,” united under the Ukrainian Central Representation, are vital in preserving Ukrainian culture. The Ukrainian Embassy in Argentina, working closely with the diaspora, organises cultural events for Ukraine’s Unity Day and Independence Day and, since the start of Russia’s invasion, has been at the forefront of numerous solidarity actions.

Ahead of Argentina’s presidential elections, all major candidates—Patricia Bullrich, Sergio Massa, Juan Schiaretti, and Javier Milei—publicly expressed support for Ukraine. They were photographed holding signs like “We Stand with Ukraine” and “Support Ukraine” alongside the Ukrainian Ambassador and the Head of the Ukrainian Central Representation. This support is particularly significant due to the influence of the large Ukrainian diaspora, whose votes can make a difference in the country’s elections. However, the full potential of this community hasn’t been fully tapped yet, and there’s a real opportunity for Ukraine to make better use of this resource to strengthen ties between Kyiv, Buenos Aires, and the diaspora for everyone’s benefit.

Argentine presidential candidates ahead of the 2023 elections showing support for Ukraine.

With Javier Milei’s election as president of Argentina, there was a surge of expectations surrounding the potential for military and defence cooperation with Ukraine, especially in light of Russia’s aggression. Under the previous administration of Alberto Fernández, Argentina, like most countries in the region, firmly refused to sell weapons to Ukraine. However, with Milei’s rise to power, the possibility of such assistance began to surface in the media, despite protests from Russia, particularly over the potential transfer of Russian-made Mi-171E helicopters or French Super Etendard supersonic attack aircraft to Ukraine.

Despite implementing strict austerity measures and cutting the state budget, Milei’s government has shown a strong intent to modernise Argentina’s military, elevating its status and focusing on acquiring advanced Western technology. To this end, Argentina has already purchased 24 F-16 fighter jets from Denmark and received a C-130 Hercules aircraft as a gift from the United States. In an interview with Latin American journalists, President Zelensky expressed Ukraine’s interest in collaborating with Argentina on defence matters, including producing parts for weapons, drones, maritime drones, electronic defence systems, and gunpowder.

A positive sign for Ukraine came on June 13, 2024, when Argentina joined the defence contact group in the Ramstein format. During the meeting, Argentine Defense Minister Luis Petri met with Ukrainian Minister Rustem Umierov and conveyed President Javier Milei’s message of support and solidarity with the Ukrainian people. Petri also reaffirmed Argentina’s commitment to the principles of territorial integrity at the XVI Conference of Defense Ministers of the Americas, once again condemning Russia’s invasion.

However, despite these strong statements, the reality of military cooperation remains unclear. President Milei’s spokesperson, Manuel Adorni, dismissed the idea of supplying weapons to Ukraine, citing a lack of necessary resources. Argentina’s position could also be influenced by pressure from Russia and China, but participation in the “Ramstein” format and discussions on joint defence production with Ukraine suggest there is potential for further cooperation. Another key issue is the ratification of the military-technical cooperation agreement between Ukraine and Argentina, signed on April 11, 2013. This agreement called for the creation of a Commission to coordinate arms supplies, modernisation, and repairs. While the situation suggests that active military cooperation could be beneficial, it seems prudent for both sides to approach it cautiously and quietly, focusing on tangible results before taking further steps.

When Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, trade between Ukraine and Argentina took a significant hit, mainly due to disruptions in logistical routes. Ukrainian exports to Argentina plummeted by 93%, amounting to just $2.91 million in 2023, while imports from Argentina fell by nearly 18%, totalling $52.9 million. These numbers are a far cry from the record high of $175.8 million in 2008 and reflect only a fraction of the potential trade between the two countries.

Despite this decline, there remains considerable potential for expanding economic cooperation. Ukraine is eager to collaborate with Argentina in sectors such as agricultural machinery, food, chemicals, mining, pharmaceuticals, metallurgy, aerospace, and military technology. Ukrainian companies could also get involved in projects aimed at modernising Argentina’s railway infrastructure, as well as developing oil, gas, and renewable energy fields. Meanwhile, Argentine businesses could play a crucial role in rebuilding Ukraine’s infrastructure and investing in its agricultural sector.

Overall, Ukrainian-Argentine relations have gained momentum over the past year, entering a period of increased activity and renewed cooperation. Diplomatic ties between the two countries have strengthened, with Argentina joining key initiatives and consistently supporting Ukraine on international platforms. However, it’s important to note that despite this support, Ukraine is not a top priority for President Javier Milei.

Given the country’s challenging economic situation and the ongoing push for tough reforms, which have faced strong opposition, domestic policy remains the main focus of Milei’s administration.

However, it would be a major mistake for Ukraine to miss the opportunity presented by Argentina’s openness and its shift in foreign policy towards the West. Therefore, it is crucial for Ukraine to continue systematically deepening relations with Argentina across all areas—trade and economic, political, military, educational and scientific, and cultural. Particular attention should be given to initiating strategic projects that could serve as a strong foundation for developing bilateral relations in the years to come and ensure their continued progress, even in the face of potential government changes.

Author:
Ivan Fechko

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