Ukrainian officials are set to present a list of long-range targets within Russia to senior U.S. national security officials. They contend that if Washington lifts its restrictions on the use of American weaponry within the aggressor country, the Ukrainian military could effectively engage these targets. According to Politico, Ukraine is using this list as its final bid to persuade the United States.
For months, the U.S. has argued that removing these restrictions would not significantly alter the strategic landscape of the war, as Russia has moved its most critical assets, including aircraft, away from the border. Additionally, since the conflict’s outset, there has been concern that easing these restrictions might provoke Russia into even more aggressive actions against Ukraine. Despite this, Ukrainian officials remain resolute, asserting that lifting the ban would grant their forces greater latitude to confront Russia within its own territory.
“Ukraine should face no limitations on the types of weapons it can employ, as terrorists face no such constraints. Defenders of life should be unrestricted,” declared Volodymyr Zelensky.
Some Ukrainian officials have detected indications that certain members of the Biden administration may be contemplating lifting these restrictions in the near future. A Democratic congressman familiar with the ongoing discussions corroborated this assertion to Politico. As of now, the White House has yet to make any official statement regarding potential policy changes.
The Daily Express reports that Russia is in a state of alarm, with satellite images exposing hundreds of targets within the range of U.S.-supplied missiles. This includes at least 250 military and paramilitary sites that fall within the strike range of ATACMS missiles.
“However, the United States currently prohibits Ukrainian forces from using ATACMS missiles to strike military targets inside Russia and only allows strikes using US-provided HIMARS — at maximum permitting Ukraine to strike only 20 out of the 250 objects it could strike with ATACMS. Just 17 of these 250 objects are airfields, and it is unlikely that the Russian military has redeployed assets away from all the other 233 objects to the same degree as it has reportedly done with aviation assets,” writes the Institute for the Study of War.
The institute notes that many of the sites within the range of ATACMS missiles are significant military installations, including major bases, communication hubs, logistics centres, repair workshops, fuel depots, ammunition storage facilities, and permanent command posts. Relocating these sites swiftly or effectively reinforcing their defences would be exceedingly difficult, if not impossible.
The Institute for the Study of War observes that “a mass relocation of forces and assets from such sites would create considerable logistical difficulties for the Russian military across the entire theatre of operations. Disruptions in these deep rear areas would also constrain Russia’s ongoing offensive operations along the front line.” They argue that any assessment suggesting there is no justification for permitting Ukraine to target locations within Russia solely based on the relocation of air assets overlooks the numerous other critical sites that sustain Russia’s war effort against Ukraine, thus rendering such assessments incomplete.
Analysts further emphasise that Ukrainian forces need not target every single Russian installation within Russia to impose significant operational pressure on the Russian military.
“Removing the existing Western restrictions would significantly enhance Ukraine’s long-range strike capabilities, compelling the Kremlin to confront a critical decision. This shift would likely necessitate a major reassessment and reconfiguration of Russian military assets in the rear, as the Russian command would need to bolster defences against potential Ukrainian attacks,” the Institute for the Study of War adds.
