What can Ukraine expect from the U.S. presidential elections? Viewing things without optimism, it appears that none of the potential election results will offer Ukraine hope for a complete victory—restoring the borders of 1991.
On March 5, 2024, Super Tuesday arrived, heralding the day when 15 U.S. states cast their votes simultaneously. These crucial elections determined the most probable nominees for the Presidency of the United States from both the Democratic and Republican parties. As expected, the current President Joseph Biden and former President Donald Trump emerged as the selected candidates, poised to go head-to-head once more in the upcoming November presidential elections.
Among the candidates, former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley managed to secure just one victory over Donald Trump, which took place in Vermont. Subsequently, she gracefully withdrew her candidacy from the race with “no regrets.” She added: “It is now up to Donald Trump to earn the votes of those in our party and beyond it who did not support him, and I hope he does that. At its best, politics is about bringing people into your cause, not turning them away. And our conservative cause badly needs more people. This is now his time for choosing”, she said.
The President of the United States is elected through the Electoral College’s system of indirect elections. As a result, candidates with fewer popular votes have won on five occasions in U.S. history. The most recent example of this was Hillary Clinton, who received two million more votes than Trump but still did not make it to the Oval Office. Election Day falls on the first Tuesday of November, following the first Monday.
This Super Tuesday, 854 delegates’ votes were allocated for the Republican Party candidate and 1,420 for the Democratic candidate.
To clinch his presidential nomination, Trump needs to secure 1,215 delegates’ votes from the Republican Party out of the 2,429 available nationwide. As of now, he has 1,060 votes out of the 1,163 already allocated from 26 states. So getting votes won’t be a problem, especially since he didn’t have any real competitors from the start of the race.
Joseph Biden has already garnered 1,833 of the required 1,968 votes to win the nomination. He is also the clear frontrunner from his party. If both candidates remain in good health, this year’s Biden vs. Trump showdown will be a rematch.
What does this mean for Ukraine?
This year, during a press conference, President Zelensky referred to the U.S. Presidential elections as a “turning point” in the war. Realistically speaking, none of the potential election outcomes will give Ukraine solid hope for a complete victory—restoring the Ukrainian borders of 1991.
If President Biden remains in the Oval Office, the Trans-Atlantic cooperation policy will continue to strengthen, maintaining U.S. leadership in NATO and providing ongoing assistance to Ukraine. However, it’s likely that this assistance will only be enough for Ukraine to retain control over the currently held territories and kickstart the recovery process, possibly initiating another counteroffensive at best.
However, the U.S. determination to avoid a direct confrontation with Russia will heavily influence all the other decisions. For instance, Ukraine’s NATO membership is slipping further out of reach, and not just in the near future and not solely due to the active phase of the war with Russia.
In his keynote speech of the year before Congress on March 7, 2024, President Biden opened with these words on geopolitical threats: “Back in January 1941, President Franklin Roosevelt stood right here in this chamber to speak to the nation. He said, ‘I address you at a moment unprecedented in the history of the United States.’ Hitler was advancing. War was unfolding in Europe. President Roosevelt sought to awaken Congress and warn the American people that this was no ordinary time. Freedom and democracy were under threat worldwide. Today, right here in this very chamber, I speak to the nation. It is now our turn to face an unprecedented moment in the history of the United States. President Roosevelt’s purpose was to wake up the Congress and alert the American people that this was no ordinary moment. Freedom and democracy were under assault in the world. Tonight, I come to the same chamber to address the nation. Now it is we who face an unprecedented moment in the history of the Union.”
He laid out his vision for the strategy concerning Ukraine like this: “Overseas, Putin is on the march, invading Ukraine and sowing chaos throughout Europe and beyond. If anybody in this room thinks Putin will stop at Ukraine, I assure you, he will not. But Ukraine can stop Putin if we stand with Ukraine and provide the weapons it needs to defend itself. That is all Ukraine is asking. They are not asking for American soldiers.”
He also referred to Trump’s words directed at Putin, “Do whatever you want,” deeming them dangerous and unacceptable. President Biden put forth his message to Putin as follows: “My message to President Putin is simple. We will not walk away. We will not bow down. I will not bow down.”
If there is a change in the head of state, foreseeing the consequences becomes even more intricate. Donald Trump has long been recognised for his shifting attitudes towards Ukraine. Some argue that Trump, who was the first to supply weapons to Ukraine during his presidency, unlike the Obama Administration, could assume the role of the “winner.” However, this is more wishful thinking than reality, as Trump is fundamentally a businessman who, at one point, sought an opportunity to “make a deal” with Putin regarding Ukraine.
“We need to end this war, and I will do it,” Trump said at a pre-election rally in South Carolina. It seems that he does not prioritise the United States’ geopolitical interests, the image losses from the consequences of the U.S. refusal to help an ally in an existential war, or humanitarian values. Even economic calculations are unlikely to matter much.
Nearly 90 per cent of the aid allocated by the U.S. for weapons to Ukraine stays within the U.S. as orders for producing new weapons or replacements for weapons sent to Kyiv from U.S. stocks. Additionally, sales to other countries surged by 49 per cent to over $51.9 billion in 2022 as European nations started to arm themselves and procure weapons for Ukraine.
Moreover, there was an increase in direct commercial sales. American defence companies sold weapons and military equipment, totalling $153 billion directly to foreign governments in 2022.
U.S. Army officer Alexander Vindman, originally from Kyiv, noted that Trump is a “real threat.” In his opinion, there is a mistaken notion that he can be convinced to support Ukraine, but given Trump’s authoritarian style of leadership, he is a “vindictive and unforgiving person” who sympathises with Russia and Putin. He believes that Ukraine would be better off winning before the U.S. elections.
He might be hinting at the issues in the relationship between Trump and Zelensky due to the pressure on the Ukrainian president to initiate an investigation against Hunter Biden and the then-rival in the race for President Joseph Biden’s seat regarding their ties with a Ukrainian energy company.
Following a phone call with Zelensky in 2019, Trump even faced the threat of impeachment. Vindman emerged as one of the key witnesses in Trump’s impeachment case.
Now, the saga of withholding aid to Ukraine hostage in Congress is a direct result of Donald Trump’s political strategy in the race for the presidency.
Even the Republicans in Congress, who have consistently advocated for assistance to Ukraine, will not be of help. The Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has already voiced his support for Donald Trump as the Republican Party’s candidate. This indicates that political interests have outweighed personal animosities and differences in views on U.S. foreign policy.
On the one hand, Donald Trump’s return to the White House could significantly unsettle the already fragile Trans-Atlantic unity. On the other hand, a shift in U.S. policy could encourage unity in Europe and hasten investments in the defence sector.
In any case, Ukraine will not receive sufficient assistance to achieve its maximum goal of reclaiming territories. In the event of new conflicts, it might even see a decrease in its current level of support.
While macro-financial assistance to support the economy and prevent a humanitarian catastrophe will continue, steps must be taken immediately to reduce the budget deficit and attract investments. These tasks are incredibly challenging given the constant threats from the bloodthirsty empire “across the border.”
