Since the post-war period, the United States has undergone rapid transformation, particularly in the 21st century. The achievements of the civil rights movement laid the groundwork for a gradually evolving nation. These shifts inevitably affected the outcomes of future elections and, by extension, the country’s direction and global role. By the 2000s, the American electorate was changing more rapidly than ever.
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U.S. Global Influence and Internal Dynamics
Despite cultural, socio-economic, and demographic differences, bipartisan support for key foreign policy issues typically remained strong. However, cultural and demographic shifts have contributed to the rise of populist movements, which have cast doubt on America’s long-standing global commitments.
For countries like Ukraine and others threatened by adversaries such as Russia, China, North Korea, or Iran, maintaining strong diplomatic and military ties with the U.S. is critical for survival or national interest. Yet, America’s growing polarisation—between liberals and conservatives—has raised concerns among non-NATO allies like Taiwan and Ukraine. These nations worry that U.S. internal divisions may divert attention away from their security needs. As cultural conflicts intensify, the risk of domestic political instability grows. The two assassination attempts on Donald Trump and fears of election disputes highlight the potential for chaos, which could only benefit America’s adversaries. Despite calls for a stronger, more assertive U.S., some domestic factions seem willing to embrace this uncertainty.
The culture war, political balance and demographic shifts
As cultural conflicts over issues like abortion, gun ownership, and the U.S. military’s global presence continue, the nation appears deeply divided. While Republican presidents have held office in the 21st century, no clear dominance by either party has emerged. Could the Democrats be on the verge of solidifying control?
One of the most significant factors reshaping America’s political landscape is demographic change. Although the white non-Hispanic majority remains the largest voting bloc, it has been steadily shrinking. According to Pew Research, this group declined from 76% of the population in 2000 to 67% in 2018. As the core base of the Republican Party, this decline presents challenges for their political future. The last time a Republican president won the popular vote was in 2004. In 2020, Georgia, a traditionally Republican state, turned blue due to high voter turnout and a growing African American population. While Trump could still win the 2024 election through the Electoral College, most forecasts predict he will once again lose the popular vote.
This shift isn’t solely about ethnicity; younger generations overwhelmingly lean toward the Democratic Party. Whether this trend will hold as these voters age remains unclear. Historically, older generations tend to favour conservative policies, but for now, the younger electorate is making America bluer.
Foreign policy in the Trump era
There was a time when both Democrats and Republicans could be classified as either hawks or doves in foreign policy. Today, Democrats are more assertive, though the definition of a “foreign policy hawk” has softened. Republicans, especially in the Trump era, have focused more on domestic issues, framing America’s greatest threats as internal. “America First” has become the rallying cry, signalling a break from the traditional, globally-focused foreign policy that once united both parties.
Meanwhile, Democrats, traditionally more diplomatic with adversaries like China, Russia, and Iran, have maintained their stance against these nations over the past two decades. This shift has left Republicans largely focused on domestic cultural conflicts, at the expense of strong foreign policy.
Ukraine and the 2024 Election
Although Ukrainians remain neutral regarding the 2024 U.S. presidential election, Trump’s potential return to the White House has raised concerns about the future of the war in Ukraine. While his administration provided more aid to Ukraine in 2017-2021 than Obama’s, a Democratic administration is seen as a more predictable, low-risk option. However, even with Democratic leadership, Ukraine faces challenges, such as the delayed approval of long-range missiles to strike Russian targets.
If Trump were to return, he has made it clear that he would prioritise negotiations and a ceasefire, which could result in a fragile peace. Whether this peace could endure a full second term is uncertain. Should Russia violate such a deal, Trump would face a significant test of his willingness to respond.
The impact of demographic change on politics and foreign policy
Demographic shifts are reshaping the political landscape, benefiting Democrats as their base grows. In response, Republicans have become more isolationist, driven by a combination of social and demographic changes. This shift toward the extreme is fueling the culture war, which is increasingly distracting both parties from foreign policy concerns like Ukraine. As America’s political bases become more divided along demographic lines, the polarisation will likely deepen.
While Democrats are expected to continue providing limited but consistent aid to Ukraine, they will also be preoccupied with countering increasingly unconventional Republican strategies. Although the U.S. has seen significant demographic and social changes over recent decades, these shifts may lead to a more inward-focused foreign policy. Barring an unforeseen cultural or social swing, America’s attention will likely remain divided between domestic and international issues in the coming years.
